September 15, 2005

  • Too Soon to Tell




    Sattelite View of New York City on 9/11/01

    September 11, 2005
    Too Soon to Tell
    By CHRIS CLEAVE
    London

    IN the four years since the twin towers fell, American writers have distinguished themselves with the vitality of their replies to the killers. Britain has followed more slowly, and it is as a Brit and a newcomer to books, writing from a city where our own tragedy of July 7 is still very raw, that I offer a humble take on the state of literature since Sept. 11.

    What startles is the furor which now greets each terrorism-related book as it comes out. As with the "war on terrorism" itself, it is getting harder to be neutral about its literature. While many readers and critics will delight in the next book that dares to imagine the unthinkable, many others will hate it with a vehemence that gives the writer, as Jonathan Safran Foer might put it, "heavy boots." Words like "exploitative" and "tasteless" are launched like righteous missiles.

    Why such vitriol? Perhaps because many still feel that writing a contemporary novel should be tackled no differently from any other odious task. Like quitting booze or clearing out the garage, isn't it best left until tomorrow? Shouldn't writers wait around three dozen years, and then write a historical novel? If they take diligent notes now, they might even get the costumes right.

    Those who try to write post-Sept. 11 novels now, the argument goes, are certain to get it "wrong." How can we know what we're feeling today, until we've had a decent time to forget that feeling and reassemble it from black box recorders, unsent love letters, and photos charred around the edges? This is called historical perspective, and it is like participating in the New York Marathon from a high earth orbit using a powerful telescope. You'll see the big picture and you won't get anything "wrong." Oh, and you won't get out of breath either.

    But a novel is more breathtaking than a history lesson. "An author should be in among the crowd," wrote D. H. Lawrence, "kicking their shins or cheering them on to some mischief or merriment." He wasn't only talking about a vivid narrative perspective - he implied that the book itself should be a participant in the world it was written for.

    Lawrence understood in the last century what many novelists are discovering in this: that there is a worse sin than getting a contemporary novel "wrong" - namely, getting it right. Witness the critical reaction to some post-Sept. 11 books. A beautiful novel is "sentimental" (Mr. Foer's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"). Colossal and erudite is "gratuitous and pretentious" (Michael Cunningham's "Specimen Days"). Idiosyncratic and questioning becomes "bitty and incomplete" (Art Spiegelman's "In the Shadow of No Towers").

    It is as if expectations of books have risen after Sept. 11. The world today is to the pre-Sept. 11 world what falling glass shards are to a window, and the job of a novelist is to describe the new view through those glittering fragments. Yet somehow we expect writers, while they're at it, to show us how to glue the window back together: to give us meaning, hope, and even happy endings. It is extremely demanding and incredibly unfair.

    It is also entirely forgivable.

    To step up to a contemporary novel in these days is to step onto hallowed ground - consecrated in Lincoln's sense of the word not only by the fallen but by the struggle of the living. Here, but also in Iraq, in Afghanistan, on the frayed borders of the world. Closer to home, there are fresh flowers on the graves in your city of New York and my city of London. The scale of the world's tragedy is heartbreaking: terrorism has matched a real dead body for every page of serious fiction published about terrorism this year. It is right to expect a special effort from novelists who choose such subject matter, when their every page is a pall.

    To require respect is one thing, but to demand disengagement is another. One influential blogger recently asked "post-Sept. 11" writers: "Why not write what you really want to write, not something that's principally a fashion item looking for a quick buck?" This oft-repeated charge of exploitation finds a softer echo in the whimsical British tendency to file away such novels as Ian McEwan's "Saturday" or Salman Rushdie's "Shalimar the Clown" as "post-Sept. 11 fiction" - as if terrorism will turn out to be a blip and a genre that addresses it short-lived.

    It is true that wars, which are finite, finish with peace treaties, poems and a genre of novels. Sadly, terrorism has no end date. Death is here to stay and engaged novelists will continue to call death by its modern name, in the knowledge that to do otherwise would consign their books to the realm of fantasy.

    But if death is here to stay, so is life, and the public's liking for novels in this changed world will rightly depend on how much life there is in them. All polemic aside, a bomb is an ear-splitting statement, but for readers books are louder. Books make death a bullhorn through which life yells triumphant. So readers are listening for the laughter in these new books, and the love: they're listening for the reasons it's still good to be alive in this waning human culture squeezed like a seam of coal between giant stone religions. Because - readers know - it is precisely that love and that laughter that, though delicate, must now be crushed under the tremendous pressure of hate and transformed in our time, either to dust or to diamond.

    Chris Cleave is the author of "Incendiary," a novel about an imagined terrorist attack on London.

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  •  




    Frances Jetter

    September 11, 2005
    Living With the Dead
    By ALICE SEBOLD
    Oakland, Calif.

    AND where do the dead go after they have sucked down their last breaths and drowned in the rafters of their homes? After they have died in the aftermath of fiery explosion? Do they gather, as some believe, together, and ascend to an otherworldly level; or do they remain, watching; or disappear altogether? Do they wait to hear the stories we will tell?

    The truth is, none of us knows what the dead do. But on earth, where we remain, the living become the keepers of their memory. This is an awesome and overwhelming responsibility. And it is simple: we must not forget them.

    These first weeks after Hurricane Katrina, this fourth anniversary of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, are not the dangerous days. The dangerous ones are ahead of us - always. They are the days when if we are not careful the dead will fall away from us because of our neglect.

    There are the grieving families who will never forget. The co-workers and neighbors who survived, who, like those left living at the end of war, may be haunted for the rest of their lives. Why was one person taken and not another?

    What I would wish for us is that we would turn away from being obsessed by numbers or by politics, and sit with our dead. That we would listen to what they have to tell us instead of doing the easier things: tossing back and forth volleys of blame, recrimination and muscular public bluster.

    No, New Orleans will not come back as it was. And yes, it will come back.

    No, a new building is not the World Trade Center, but there can still be a new heart for downtown Manhattan.

    But no matter what, you cannot bring the dead back. They are gone.

    What can the living do in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and 9/11, where loss has greeted us twice on a national scale in such a short span of years?

    Do the dead wish you to suffer? Do they want you to watch CNN and Fox News for days on end? Do they want your guilt or pity? All of these things are like jewels to them. In other words - valueless where they have gone.

    Instead, a woman wants her husband not to forget her but to go on and live. A child longs for a lost mother's arms again. A man grows peaceful when his partner finds new love. Some of the dead, I imagine, get enraged at these things. They are dead after all. They get to do and feel - I hope - what they want to.

    The living who were close to the dead have a well-marked path of grief to walk down. But what about the rest of us? What can we, the distant - those of us who live in Nebraska or California or the very tip of Maine - do?

    You are in your kitchen or your backyard or stuck on an endless elevator ride. You are sitting with a book in the park. Perhaps it is an image you remember having seen. A handmade grave of sheets and bricks. "Here Lies Vera. God Help Us." Perhaps it is the voice from a message left on an answering machine. "They have told us to remain at our desks. I'm O.K., Mom. I love you."

    Perhaps it is less specific: Bodies falling from high windows, bodies floating in muddy water. Bodies wrapped in dirty bedding and tucked along the sides of bridges and highways. The faces of the missing, taped and tacked up on a wall.

    Whatever it is that comes to you in three months, six months, a year or more, don't turn the page of your book and forget, don't stab the elevator button trying to hurry up the trip. Stop.

    These tragedies, it's worth remembering, grant us an opportunity to understand what is perhaps our finest raw material: our humanity. The way we at our best treat one another. The way we listen to one another. The way we grieve.

    Who can forget the funerals of the firemen lost in the twin towers? Who can imagine the funerals to come in the weeks and months ahead in Louisiana and Mississippi? We won't be present, in front of our television or through the newspaper, for all of them. The press itself cannot, beyond a certain point, do anything but name and count the dead.

    So grieve for the particular lives that come to you. Think of the grandmother slumped in her wheelchair under a plaid blanket, or the body of a young financial analyst from West Virginia who was never found but whose smiling face still greets us from a Web site of the dead. Let them guide you to understand that it is our absolute vulnerability that provides our greatest chance to be human.

    Look up from this newspaper you are reading, ignore the morning traffic you may find yourself in tomorrow, turn off the television one day this week and watch the moon. Think of the dead of 9/11 and of Hurricane Katrina. Stay there a moment. Remember them.

    Alice Sebold is the author of "The Lovely Bones."

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  • Revising 9/11




    September 11, 2005
    Revising 9/11

    On the first three anniversaries of Sept. 11, 2001, the nation had the grim luxury of uncluttered memory. We looked back on that day's events as the most terrible thing that could happen on American soil. Today, we are cursed with an unwanted expansion of that vision.

    It took a day or two after Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast to understand that it could affect our feelings about what happened at the World Trade Center, at the Pentagon and in rural Pennsylvania. After all, the people who died on Sept. 11 were murdered by other human beings. Katrina's malevolence was only a metaphor, no matter how damaging its winds. But by the time the hurricane died down and the floodwaters stopped rising, it became clear that this hurricane would force us to revise 9/11, which, until now, had defined the limits of tragedy in America.

    Without realizing it, we had internalized what happened four years ago in a rather tidy story arc: Terrorists struck with brutal violence and the country responded. Everyone rose to the occasion - rallying around New York City, comforting the survivors and doing "whatever it takes" to make the country, if not totally safe, at least totally ready for whatever came next. Mistakes were made, but we would learn from them, and wind up stronger and better prepared.

    Given the area it affected and its potential death toll, Katrina perfectly simulated a much larger terrorist attack than the one that hit New York. It was nearly nuclear in scale. Everyone did not behave well. Local first responders went missing, or failed to rise to the occasion, or were simply overwhelmed. Leaders did not lead, and on many counts the federal government was less prepared to respond than it had been when the World Trade Center towers still stood.

    We felt that 9/11 had changed our lives in an instant, that we had been jerked out of a pleasant dream. The difference in the blow that Katrina struck was not merely that we could see it coming. It was that, as a nation, we thought we were already fully awake.

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  • Planning the Impossible: New York's Evacuation




    Lief Parsons

    September 11, 2005
    Planning the Impossible: New York's Evacuation
    By SAM ROBERTS

    ON New Year's Eve 1999, Fred Siegel writes in "The Prince of the City," his new book about Rudolph W. Giuliani's New York, authorities feared that terrorists would seize on Y2K computer glitches to strike in Times Square. In response, the National Guard was secretly mobilized in Brooklyn "as part of an emergency plan for evacuating Manhattan." As midnight came and went, the computers hummed on, the celebration proceeded flawlessly and officials concluded, Mr. Siegel notes with a tinge of sarcasm, "Gotham was ready for a future emergency."

    In fact, no plan existed that night for evacuating all of Manhattan. The guard unit at the Brooklyn Navy Yard consisted of about 100 troops and 50 trucks, and their mission, in the event of an attack, was limited to ferrying the injured out of Times Square.

    Today, four years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, there is still no single plan to evacuate all of New York, which virtually no one believes is possible. If New York's anthem was about fleeing the city instead of its lure, its lyrics might read: "If you can make it out of here, you can make it out of anywhere."

    Just imagine trying to move more than eight million New Yorkers - including the high number of people without cars - through streets that are clogged on an ordinary day and then through the tunnels and over the bridges that connect New York's islands to the mainland and to one another. "It would not be easy and it would not be pretty," said Jerome M. Hauer, the city's former emergency management director.

    History offers little comfort. For example, on Nov. 25, 1783, British troops began their retreat from New York (a day still celebrated in some Irish neighborhoods as Evacuation Day). It took them a full month.

    During World War II, civil defense focused on air raid shelters, but the advent of radioactive weapons in the cold war inspired proposals to evacuate people by boat (after a test-run by a flotilla of 20 ferries, barges and tugboats up the East River in 1951, officials figured 100,000 an hour could be spirited away for six hours; then the flow "would taper off for lack of equipment"). There were also plans to construct atomic-proof shelters for 1.5 million beneath city parks, in underground stations in Washington Heights and along a Second Avenue subway bored through rock, and to build two cross-town expressways to speed the escape from Manhattan.

    Even so, a mayoral panel concluded in 1955 that only a million people could be moved from the worst danger zones within an hour. "Until more efficient use of transportation and more than one hour's warning can be assured," the panel said, "about three million people, or 37 percent of the city's eight million population, might be balked in any attempt to escape the target area except by walking."

    In 1966, the city's civil defense director, Timothy J. Cooney, admitted the obvious: "If a nuclear bomb fell in our midst, civil defense would be an academic question."

    Today, the city appears to be better prepared than ever for disasters, especially natural ones like hurricanes (a Category 5 hurricane has apparently never hit the city head on). Officials have maps of escape routes from vulnerable neighborhoods near water to 23 reception centers and public shelters, the ability to mobilize fleets of buses, and a keen sense of contingencies (like knowing when bridges would have to be closed because of high winds and when subway and car tunnels might flood).

    "It's very important to have a sense of order if you have an evacuation and we are able to mass 37,000 cops in the neighborhoods that need it, where people are poor or infirm," said Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly. Still, as the city's Household Preparedness Guide says: "Evacuation is used as a last resort."

    Joseph F. Bruno, the emergency management commissioner, said the city is prepared to move from 400,000 to two million people from the path of a hurricane - a challenge made a little less daunting by advance warning, knowing which flood-prone areas to evacuate and identifying how many poor, elderly, disabled and non-English speakers live there. Since 9/11, with its hellish communications breakdowns, New York officials said they have also vastly improved their ability to communicate with the public by radio and television and, to a lesser extent, with each other.

    Still, much of the planning assumes that people already know what to do (the city's preparedness guide is available online at nyc.gov/readyny and two million copies have been distributed in eight languages), or would telephone the city's information line, 311, which can handle only so many calls (about 178,000 two years ago on the day of the blackout).

    "Would it be difficult to move two million people? Absolutely," Mr. Bruno said. "I hope we never have to do it."

    Which means evacuating eight million would be beyond difficult. "We have plans for area evacuations, and if you take them to their logical conclusion an area could be the entire city of New York," Mr. Bruno said. "Those are doomsday type things, a nuclear attack. We're definitely not throwing our hands up. But it would be a catastrophic event that would be extremely difficult for New York City to have to deal with."

    How long would it take to virtually empty the city? "I wouldn't even hazard a guess," Mr. Bruno replied.

    Mr. Hauer, now a consultant in Washington, said evacuating the whole city would not be impossible, but would be fraught with nightmarish challenges, like rescuing people from hospitals and nursing homes and reversing traffic flows. "It's a matter of where do you put all those people when you get them out of Manhattan," he said.

    And, in a nuclear explosion, Mr. Hauser added, there's is the danger of radioactivity. "Rescue workers might, without any idea of protection, at the end of the day choose to stay out of the plume and I can't blame them," he said. "Obviously, there'd be a lot of self-evacuation."

    That's more or less what happens after work every weekday when half the borough's daytime population - nearly 1.5 million commuters - leaves Manhattan to return home. Perhaps there's some comfort in remembering that, except for the stragglers, most eventually make it.

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  • No Fixed Address




    Joe Howell/Knoxville News Sentinel, via Associated Press

    The Knoxville Coliseum in Tennessee is readied for Katrina evacuees


    September 11, 2005
    No Fixed Address
    By JAMES DAO

    WASHINGTON — The images of starving, exhausted, flood-bedraggled people fleeing New Orleans and southern Mississippi over the last two weeks have scandalized many Americans long accustomed to seeing such scenes only in faraway storm-tossed or war-ravaged places like Kosovo, Sudan or Banda Aceh.

    But Hurricane Katrina delivered America its own refugee crisis, arguably the worst since Sherman's army burned its way across the South. And though the word "refugee" is offensive to some, and not accurate according to international law, it conveys a fundamental truth: these are people who will be unable to return home for months, possibly years. Many almost certainly will make new homes in new places.

    It is not the first time the United States has faced a mass internal migration: think of the "Okies" who fled the drought-ravaged Dust Bowl for fertile California in the 1930's, or Southern blacks who took the Delta blues to Chicago in the first half of the last century.

    But the wreckage wrought by Katrina across the Gulf Coast is probably unprecedented in American history. No storm has matched the depth and breadth of its devastation. And the two disasters that demolished major cities - the Chicago fire of 1871 and the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 - occurred when the federal government lacked the resources and agencies to help the displaced. They offer few clues about how to aid and comfort Katrina's victims.

    For that reason, many experts say, the federal government should look for long-term strategies among the groups that have resettled millions of refugees from those faraway storm-tossed or war-ravaged places - two million of them here in the United States since 1975.

    "These groups have a different way of seeing the problem: that it's not just short-term emergency relief," said Roberta Cohen, an expert on refugees at the Brookings Institution who helped write guidelines on aiding internally displaced people for the United Nations.

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency has welcomed some help from agencies that specialize in disaster relief overseas, including the United Nations and the United States Agency for International Development.

    But despite Katrina's magnitude, FEMA officials say their approach to resettling evacuees is not likely to differ significantly from the approach here to past disasters. They have ordered 100,000 trailers and mobile homes that will be placed in "trailer cities" in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi. They have begun finding short-term apartments in Houston and Baton Rouge. And the Red Cross and other aid groups plan to provide psychological counseling and housing assistance at its temporary shelters.

    "This is larger, but the process is the same," said James McIntyre, a FEMA spokesman.

    Experts in refugee resettlement say the old ways might not be enough. Thousands of the New Orleans evacuees were poor or elderly; many were on welfare or have limited job skills. Many have been sent far from family and friends. Meeting their needs, and rebuilding the shattered Gulf Coast cities, will take a far more long-term and comprehensive plan, those experts say.

    "The approach now is very ad hoc," said Mark Franken, executive director of migration and refugee services for the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops. "They are moving people from one temporary environment to another."

    Mr. Franken said nine resettlement organizations had proposed re-creating their refugee services for evacuees: finding jobs and long-term independent housing, acclimating people to new communities and providing careful case management that lasts months. The Bush administration is still reviewing that proposal, he said. The administration, he added, said groups should be prepared to care for half a million evacuees.

    Other experts contend that the federal government should create a large-scale public works program to employ evacuees, possibly in rebuilding New Orleans itself. Gene Dewey, who retired in June as the assistant secretary of state for population, refugees and migration, said one model, as far-fetched as it sounds, might be the Afghan Civilian Conservation Corps - named after the Depression-era program started by President Franklin D. Roosevelt - that the Bush administration created in Afghanistan in 2003. By paying returnees to build roads, plant trees and restore schools, the program provided dignity as well as money, Mr. Dewey said.

    "This is a time when you need that kind of Franklin Roosevelt thinking," he said.

    Hugh Parmer, who worked for the United States Agency for International Development in the 1990's and who has advised federal officials on a post-Katrina strategy, said the Kosovo crisis of 1999 taught him that the most humane way to resettle refugees was to avoid placing them in large shelters or camps.

    Mr. Parmer added that the organization he currently leads, the American Refugee Committee International, plans to open mobile health clinics in Louisiana this week. It will be the first time the group, founded in 1979 to assist Southeast Asian refugees, has done work inside the United States.

    "We run six mobile clinics in Darfur, and we've been joking that we're going to move the Sudan model to southern Louisiana," Mr. Parmer said.

    Julia Taft, who directed a Ford administration task force that oversaw the resettlement of 131,000 Southeast Asian refugees in the United States in 1975, said religious groups and private relief agencies were able to resettle those refugees in nine months because they had a vast network of volunteers, churches and synagogues.

    "What we need to do is treat them like refugees," Ms. Taft said of the hurricane's victims. "We've got to recognize that they are going to be displaced for a significant period of time."

    Some people, most prominently the Rev. Jesse Jackson, have objected to calling the storm victims refugees, asserting that the word is inappropriate and even racist. Under international law, refugees are defined as people who cross national borders to flee persecution.

    Ms. Cohen of the Brookings Institution said the evacuees from the Gulf Coast fit neatly into a newer category: "internally displaced persons." In the 1990's, when the end of the cold war and the dissolution of the Soviet Union led to ethnic strife and civil war across the Balkans and sub-Saharan Africa, the term was popularized by aid workers who contended that Western nations should intervene, with force if necessary, when governments failed to help large numbers of displaced people.

    The United States, thanks to its resources, has largely been spared such dislocations. But not completely. The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 may have displaced more than half a million people. The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 displaced more than 200,000 people. The Chicago fire of 1871 left 100,000 residents, a third of the city, homeless.

    Donald L. Miller, professor of history at Lafayette College in Pennsylvania and author of "City of the Century: The Epic of Chicago and the Making of America," said the 1871 fire, like Katrina, had a sudden and catastrophic impact, particularly on poor Irish immigrants.

    The federal government dispatched troops to keep order, but offered little direct assistance to victims. Churches, charities and business groups tried to fill the vacuum, but most of the displaced drifted into tent cities and shantytowns to fend for themselves, Professor Miller said.

    But if the fire offers few clear tips on how government should respond to Katrina, he said, it is instructive in one way: many of the evacuees stayed close to Chicago and helped rebuild it. By the late 1880's, it was the fifth-largest city in the world, a commercial hub and birthplace of a new, more muscular - and more fireproof - architecture.

    "I don't understand the despair regarding New Orleans," he said. "We rebuilt Chicago. We rebuilt Berlin and Tokyo. We can do it again."

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September 14, 2005

  • Among the Believers




    Diego Uchitel for The New York Times

    Heidi Julavitz, one of the editors of The Believer


    September 11, 2005

    Among the Believers




    Benjamin Kunkel's first novel, "Indecision," published last month, concerns a young man living in Manhattan and trying, as the title suggests, to figure out what to do with his life. He has a B.A. in philosophy and an active, if confusing, romantic life; he gets by on a combination of office work and parental subsidy. In his author's affectionate estimation, offered over a beer on a recent evening at a Brooklyn bar, this young man, whose name is Dwight Wilmerding, is "kind of an idiot." Perhaps, but he may also be - the critical response to "Indecision" suggests as much - an especially representative kind of idiot. His plight, after all, is - for people of his age and background - a familiar one: an alienation from his own experience brought about by too much knowledge, too many easy, inconsequential choices, too much self-consciousness. Bred in a culture consecrated to the entitled primacy of the individual, he discovers that he lacks a self, a coherent identity, maybe a soul. He feels that he could be anyone. "It wasn't very unusual for me to lie awake at night," he confesses, "feeling like a scrap of sociology blown into its designated corner of the world. But knowing the clichés are clichés doesn't help you to escape them. You still have to go on experiencing your experience as if no one else has ever done it."


    Of course, one aspect of that experience is the impulse to rebel against it - the desire to rescue thought, feeling and ambition from the quotation marks that seem perpetually affixed to them, to recover the possibility of earnest emotion, ethical commitment and serious thought. That desire can find any number of outlets, one of which might be - why not? - starting a literary journal, a small magazine.


    "You'd better mean something enough to live by it," Kunkel told me, echoing both his fictional creation and, as it happens, one of his comrades in another literary enterprise. On the last page of the first issue of n+1, a little magazine that made its debut last year, the reader learns that "it is time to say what you mean." The author of that declaration, a forceful variation on some of Dwight Wilmerding's more tentative complaints, is Keith Gessen, who edits n+1 along with Kunkel, Mark Greif and Marco Roth. All four editors are around Dwight's age - he's 28 when the main action in the book takes place; they're 30 or a little older. Like him, they often glance anxiously and a bit nostalgically backward to a pre-9/11, pre-Florida-recount moment that seems freer and more irresponsible than the present. You wouldn't, however, call any of them any kind of idiot. Nor, based on their pointed, closely argued and often brilliantly original critiques of contemporary life and letters, would you accuse them of indecision, though they do sometimes display a certain pained 21st-century ambivalence about the culture they inhabit.


    N+1 is not the first small magazine to come out of this ambivalence or the first to have its mission encapsulated by a memoiristic account of the attempt to figure out one's life. Consider the following scrap of dialogue from Dave Eggers's "Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius," famously hailed as the manifesto of a slightly earlier generational moment:


    "And how will you do this?" she wants to know. "A political party? A march? A revolution? A coup?"


    "A magazine."


    Eggers is talking about an old (in fact, a defunct) magazine called Might, but never mind. Even with a bit of historical distance - five years after the book's publication, a decade and more after the events it describes - these lines capture both a moment and the general spirit of the magazine-starting enterprise. A bunch of ambitious, like-minded young friends get together to assemble pictures and words into a sensibility - a voice, a look, an attitude - that they hope will resonate beyond their immediate circle. Eventually, as in most versions of this kind of story, they run out of money and energy and move on to other things. In Eggers's case, those other things included other magazines, as Might begat McSweeney's, a typographically adventurous literary quarterly, which in turn begat The Believer, an illustrated monthly whose design was conceived by Eggers and that is edited by Vendela Vida (to whom he is married), Heidi Julavits and Ed Park.


    At a time when older forms of media are supposedly being swallowed up by newer ones, the impulse to start the kind of magazine Partisan Review was in the late 1930's or The Paris Review was in the 50's might look contrarian, even reactionary. If you are an overeducated (or at least a semi-overeducated) youngish person with a sleep disorder and a surfeit of opinions, the thing to do, after all, is to start a blog. There are no printing costs, no mailing lists, and the medium offers instant membership in a welcoming herd of independent minds who will put you in their links columns if you put them in yours. Blogs embody and perpetuate a discourse based on speed, topicality, cleverness and contention - all qualities very much ascendant in American media culture these days. To start a little magazine, then - to commit yourself to making an immutable, finite set of perfect-bound pages that will appear, typos and all, every month or two, or six, or whenever, even if you are also, and of necessity, maintaining an affiliated Web site, to say nothing of holding down a day job or sweating over a dissertation - is, at least in part, to lodge a protest against the tyranny of timeliness. It is to opt for slowness, for rumination, for patience and for length. It is to defend the possibility of seriousness against the glibness and superficiality of the age - and also, of course, against other magazines.


    These, at least, seem to be among the ambitions driving The Believer and n+1. Their editors are young, and their circulations are not large. (It may, indeed, be hard to find these publications outside of independent bookstores in larger cities and college towns.) The names of the writers who contribute to them are, for the most part, not well known: first- or second-time novelists, graduate students and moonlighting academic mavericks, with an occasional celebrity professor or foreign writer thrown in for good measure. Modest though the magazines are in scale and appearance, there is nonetheless something stirringly immodest - something "authentic and delirious," as e.e. cummings once wrote - about what they are trying to do, which is to organize a generational struggle against laziness and cynicism, to raise once again the banners of creative enthusiasm and intellectual engagement.




    In some ways, The Believer and n +1 represent sensibilities as distinct as their names. The Believer, which was going to be called The Optimist, puts out a welcome mat for pluralism and wide-eyed curiosity, while n+1 surveys contemporary culture through eyes narrowed by skepticism. Nonetheless, there is much that they share, notably a pointedly cosmopolitan frame of reference and an eclectic internationalism that embraces - or, rather, defiantly refuses to disown - European thinkers (the Italian philosopher Giorgio Agamben, the Slovenian mischief-maker Slavoj Zizek) and novelists (the scandalous Michel Houellebecq, whose recent study of H.P. Lovecraft was published by The Believer's nascent book imprint, and the Spaniard Javier Marias, who publishes a monthly column called "La Zona Fantasma" in the magazine). The magazines themselves feel decidedly youthful, not only in their characteristic generational concerns - the habit of nonchalantly blending pop culture, literary esoterica and academic theory, for instance, or the unnerving ability to appear at once mocking and sincere - but also in the sense of bravado and grievance that ripples through their pages.


    In addition to interviews with philosophers, writers, filmmakers, indie-rock musicians, a professional ninja and anyone else willing to sit down for a long, meandering conversation, The Believer publishes page-long appreciations of books, children, motels, light bulbs and power tools and two-page schematics devoted to things like singing drummers and fictional presidents. Mostly, though, it publishes long essays with enigmatic titles, each one prefaced by a list enumerating matters to be "discussed." For example, from the August 2005 issue, an article by Tony Perrottet called "The Semen of Hercules" promises discussion of, among other things, "The Kentucky Derby, Philostratus. . .Pharmaceutical Use of Squeezed Mustard-Rocket Leaf, Guaranteed Sexual Attractiveness. . .and Ancient Fad Diets."


    The lists suggest digression, surprise and a willingness to explore tangents and not be bound by strictly linear presentation. The typical Believer essay - to the extent that such a thing can exist, given the magazine's commitment to the idiosyncrasy and multiplicity of voices - ranges and explores, collecting curiosities and offhand insights on its way to an argument and taking as much time, and as many words, as it needs. This formal elasticity is central to The Believer's critique of other magazines and the speeded-up, superficial culture of reading they sustain.


    "It would be easier to say what we saw didn't exist than to say what we wanted to exist," Heidi Julavits told me recently. "As a writer and a reader, it felt like topic, topic, topic, topic was this constant refrain. You could never get away from the topic."


    And the topic often seemed to be the same. "The vast majority of magazines in the United States tell you exactly the same thing at the same time," Vendela Vida said not long ago by telephone from San Francisco, where she lives and where The Believer is published (though two of its editors, Park and Julavits, live most of the time in New York). "We'd all apparently entered into this agreement that every month we'd be interested in the same thing" - the upcoming movies, novels, recordings and television shows.


    But, of course, in spite of an elaborate machinery devoted to synchronizing and standardizing cultural consumption - of which magazines are an important part - most people's habits remain blessedly out of synch. We buy battered paperbacks at yard sales, stumble across movies on cable late at night and hear strange music on our friends' mix tapes (an experience apotheosized by Rick Moody's article about a Christian indie-rock group, the Danielson Famile, in the recent music issue). Part of The Believer's mission is to capture this aesthetic of mixing and matching, swapping and rediscovering. The message of a given issue seems to be, Hey, look at all this neat stuff - or, as Julavits puts it, "Isn't this amazing?" Philosophers and musicians, the M.L.A., the W.N.B.A., the U.L.A. (that's Underground Literary Alliance), Tintin and a strange 19th-century Southern novel called "The Story of Don Miff" all receive generous, thoughtful scrutiny, for their own sakes and for their interconnections.


    "There has to be an element that reflects how we live and how we read," Vida told me. "We don't just run out and buy the new novel or start thinking about Darwinism just because George Bush happened to say something about it." And so The Believer's content is often as pointedly untimely as its approach is digressive. Some of its best articles dust off the reputations of half-forgotten writers and historical characters - Charles Portis, John Hawkes, Ignatius Donnelly - and the interviews, with the very, the semi-and the narrowly famous, range far beyond the usual plugging of the latest projects. "In October we have David Sedaris talking mostly about monkeys," Vida said. "What makes it timely is its untimeliness."


    The Believer grew out of the blending of two different ideas - an interview magazine Vida and Eggers were discussing and a book review Julavits was interested in starting. The magazine, which made its debut in March 2003 and has just published its 27th issue, is older than n+1, which is on its third. It is also larger, both in trim size (an eccentric, pleasing-to-hold 8ð by 10 inches, compared with n+1's more orthodox and bookish 7 by 10) and in circulation. The Believer prints around 15,000 copies of its regular issues, and more of its special issues devoted to music and visual art, while n+1, having sold out its 2,000-copy first issue, has increased its run with every subsequent issue. Though The Believer pays its writers - the going rate is $500 for a long essay - and its managing editor, Andrew Leland, everyone else associated with each of the publications essentially works for free.


    Vida, Julavits and Park all knew one another in the mid-90's at Columbia, where they all received M.F.A.'s in creative writing. Vida published "Girls on the Verge," a journalistic look at female coming-of-age rituals, and then turned to fiction with her second book, "And Now You Can Go." Julavits has published two novels, "The Mineral Palace" and "The Effect of Living Backwards," while Park, in addition to his Believer duties, is a senior editor (and occasional film reviewer) at The Village Voice.


    The four editors of n+1 are also connected by shared sensibilities and school ties. Kunkel, who grew up in Colorado, went from Deep Springs College, a tiny, all-male school in the California desert devoted to the classical ideal of rigorous study in a pastoral setting, to Harvard, where he met Greif, though not Gessen, who was also there at the time. (Actually, they later discovered that they did have one brief encounter as undergraduates, about which Kunkel would say only that at least one of them was drunk and that one suggested the other should get a lobotomy.) Gessen, who lived in the Soviet Union until he was 6, was a football player at Harvard and went on to get an M.F.A. in fiction from Syracuse. Greif entered the Ph.D. program in American studies at Yale, where he met Roth, who had arrived via Oberlin and Columbia to pursue his doctorate in comparative literature. After talking about it for years - another friend from Harvard, Chad Harbach, who edits the n+1 Web site, thought of the name back in 1998 - they decided the moment was right to put their ideas and aspirations into print.




    One afternoon in July, I wandered over to n+1's offices - that is, to the apartment near the Brooklyn Museum that Keith Gessen shares with two roommates - to watch Allison Lorentzen, the managing editor, assorted staff members, friends and interns coax the third issue toward production. As the editors entered data into their subscription lists, pausing now and then to munch on a baby carrot or a morsel of rugelach, we chatted about a variety of topics, many of which happened to be other, older little magazines - Politics, Partisan Review, Dissent - and the legendary figures who wrote for them. The air was so thick with Lionel Trilling, Edmund Wilson, Hannah Arendt and Dwight Macdonald that Gessen later sent me an e-mail message hoping to correct the impression that all he and his colleagues ever talked about were the public intellectuals of the past. "Left to our own devices, we also talk about rock 'n' roll music," he said.


    Well, yes, of course. Mark Greif's essay on Radiohead in the new issue - subtitled "The Philosophy of Pop" - certainly proves as much. Still, their own enterprise is steeped in an awareness of what past journals and small magazines have been and failed to be - not only ancient specimens like T.S. Eliot's Criterion, which was the subject of Gessen's honors thesis at Harvard, but also newer models.


    A few days later, in a Lower East Side cafe on an afternoon so hot that only a true intellectual would think to order a pot of tea, Greif laid out the immediate prehistory of n+1 - what a certain kind of historian might call its conditions of possibility. "In order to start this thing you have to feel there's a kind of historical necessity," he said. The history of small magazines has been, to some extent, a history of grand intellectual, artistic and political movements, for which even the tiniest publications have served as incubators and laboratories. They have sometimes functioned as a vanguard (as Irving Kristol's Public Interest did with the disgruntled liberalism that would blossom into neoconservatism) and sometimes as a way of keeping unfashionable ideas alive in difficult times (as Dissent, which started at the vanguard of democratic socialism in the 1950's, has done pretty much ever since). Partisan Review, whose demise Gessen cites, only semi-facetiously, as a pretext for the founding of n+1, is everyone's favorite example of both. After freeing itself from the Communist Party in the mid-1930's, it took up the banner of the anti-Stalinist left, a flag which, after World War II, took on the colors of international literary modernism. Though it published some of the postwar period's most eminent novelists and poets, Partisan Review is best remembered as a vehicle for a kind of cultural criticism that was, at its best, politically engaged without being narrowly ideological and discriminating without being precious or snobbish.


    The need for this kind of writing never goes away, even though its extinction always seems imminent. "Coming out of college, it felt like there were people who were really going to be there for you," Greif said, referring to the journals and Webzines that seemed to be flourishing in the late 90's, including The Baffler, McSweeney's, Lingua Franca and Feed. "Then three things happened. The Internet economy burst" - taking with it some of the most interesting Web-based publications - "and you discovered that these things, which had been the intellectual hope of a generation, were based on venture capital. Then Lingua Franca" - the "review of academic life" that existed from 1990 to 2001 - "went bust." McSweeney's, though it survived, turned out to be, in Greif's opinion, a bit of a letdown, because of its mannered quirkiness and what he calls its "orientation to childhood."


    From each of these disappointments, he said, a lesson could be drawn. The first was that "it doesn't matter if you have money, and you're better off without it." (N+1 was started with small sums from the pockets of its editors. It sells a few pages of advertisements in each issue and recently received a modest infusion of cash - some $8,000 from a fund-raiser.) The second lesson was "take what you can from the academy," but without getting bogged down in pedantry or academic politics. (Thus n+1's frequent and unapologetic references to literary theory and continental philosophy, presented in language free of jargon and ideological posturing.) Finally, there was a renewed belief in the importance of debate, a desire, as Grief put it, "to convince people that arguing about things could be impersonal, because it advances thought."


    And n+1 is explicitly and without embarrassment devoted to the idea that thought can advance. "The idea of progress is not uncomfortable to us," they declare in the "preamble" to their inaugural issue. "Who will drive progress? To every tradition, and every art, and aspect of culture, and line of thought, a step is added. This dream of advance in every human endeavor, in line with what we need, not just what we're capable of, is futurism humanized. It is wanted in a time of repetition. It is needed whenever authorities declare an end to history. It is desperate when the future we are offered is the outcome of technology."


    Somewhat more mundanely, the magazine exists to present work by its editors - and by like-minded writers who discover n+1through word of mouth or Web browsing - that might not have a chance of appearing elsewhere. Gessen regularly reviews books for New York magazine, and both he and Kunkel have published in The New York Review of Books. Greif remains on the masthead at The American Prospect, where he worked for a year. But, Kunkel said, "the most exciting pieces that have been published in the magazine" - he cites Greif's "Against Exercise," Roth's "Last Cigarettes," and a forthcoming short (and unsigned) article about dating - "could not have appeared anywhere else. For generic reasons, and for their untimeliness. There's a tendency to ghettoize things that are important to us - there's fiction, there's essays and criticism, there's politics - and you can go and find journals about each of these things, but you can't go and find journals about all of those things."


    Gessen said much the same thing to me on yet another hot afternoon, in a falafel joint in another part of Brooklyn: "Here I am with all this fiction no one would want to publish, and here's Mark with these essays no one's going to publish, and after a while we felt like we had this critical mass of stuff that nobody would want to publish." Until, that is, they did so themselves, after which things changed - a little. Harper's reprinted "Against Exercise," which was also selected for "Best American Essays 2005," and Marco Roth's "Derrida: An Autothanatography," first published on the n+1 Web site, was reprinted in The Boston Globe. (Kunkel, meanwhile, has become the hot young white male writer of the moment, a position once held by Dave Eggers. Now is probably the time to disclose that Kunkel's literary agent, who was once Eggers's, is also mine.)


    "Against Exercise," written in the lofty, epigrammatic and mischievously funny style that is Greif's hallmark (and that does not usually find favor with dissertation committees), interrogates the bizarre, soul-emptying mixture of hedonism and self-punishment that characterizes rituals of fitness. Roth's valediction to the French philosopher who was, for decades, both a hero and a scapegoat in American intellectual life, is a mixture of homage, memoir and iconoclasm, as good an account as any of the seductions and the limitations of theory. Those articles hint at some key aspects of the magazine's identity. They show, first of all, a willingness to scramble conventional ideas of genre, mixing criticism, personal essay, fiction and philosophical argument and applying the resulting hybrid to matters both mundane (dating, going to the gym, smoking) and lofty (the meaning of life, the nature of war). Other essays achieve similar blendings of voice, style and genre. Elif Batuman's "Babel in California," the longest article in the second issue, is an inquiry into the tragic, enigmatic life of the great Russian-Jewish writer Isaac Babel wrapped in a comic novel of academic manners - using real names, no less - that would make Mary McCarthy proud (and also jealous). Gessen's short story "The Vice President's Daughter" is as much an essay on the delusions and smashed hopes of Clinton-era college students as it is a work of fiction. Kunkel's "Diana Abbott: A Lesson," for its part, is an essay on the South African novelist J.M. Coetzee in the form of a fictional narrative about a young book reviewer's struggle to come to terms with his work.




    Such eclecticism is not an end in itself, and the experimental brio of the writing coexists with a regard for aesthetic distinctions, intellectual standards and even cultural hierarchies that can look downright conservative. "I love it when we're mistaken for a conservative journal of opinion," Mark Greif said - though the actual political views presented in n+1 tend to range from mildly to ardently left-wing. Their youthful gusto is accompanied by a sense of weary impatience - with the mindless celebration of popular culture, with the coyness of some of their literary peers and rivals and with ignorance of history and tradition on the part of those who should know better. William F. Buckley Jr., founder of National Review, perhaps the most influential magazine of the past half-century, famously defined a conservative as someone who "stands athwart history, yelling Stop," a description curiously echoed in the last words on the last page of the first issue of n+1: "We've begun by saying, No. Enough."


    And it does often seem that way. The reader of n+1 discovers what the magazine is for by grasping what it is against, which is not only exercise but also, in no small part, other magazines - including, as it happens, The Believer. In the first issue, in a section they proudly and cheekily call "The Intellectual Situation" (the intellectual in question being a footloose, self-ironizing composite of Greif, Gessen, Kunkel and Roth), the editors comb through the mail, tossing The Believer onto a pile with The New Republic and The Weekly Standard. Expressing the ambivalence about Dave Eggers and "the Eggersards" that may be the defining trait of this latest generation (it is, at this point, almost impossible to distinguish hero worship from backlash), they note that The Believer "presents their version of thinking - as an antidote to mainstream criticism, which they call snarkiness." N+1 responds: "Mere belief is hostile to the whole idea of thinking. To wear credulity as one's badge of intellect is not to be a thinker as such."


    That is well put, but also a bit wide of the mark, and it overstates the differences between the two magazines. The Believer, in spite of its commitment to enthusiasm, is about something more than "mere belief," and n+1, for its part, fiercely broadcasts its own faith - in transcendence, in literature and in a curiously disembodied activity called "thought." In the latest installment of "The Intellectual Situation," a short essay called "The Reading Crisis" examines some of the oft-diagnosed symptoms of literature's ill health, from slumping book sales to the cancellation of Oprah's Book Club, and finds many of the proposed remedies - including Believerish hostility to hostile reviews - to be worse than the disease. And yet they also have, in the past, expressed their own reservations about negativity, scolding The New Republic's James Wood for his uncharitable reviews of modern novelists and suppressing a withering addendum to "The Reading Crisis" dealing with Jonathan Safran Foer. Their ringing, programmatic insistence on progress - "to those who insist the series is at an end, we say: n+1" - can sound an awful lot like The Believer's defiant optimism. And Gessen's declaration, on the last page of the first issue, that "it is time to say what you mean," chimes with The Believer's stance against what Julavits calls "high irony."


    The Believer, after all, came into being in opposition to what Eggers and Julavits perceived as the snide, vituperative state of book reviewing, a disorder diagnosed by Julavits, in the first-issue article that served more or less as a manifesto, as "snark." It was a wide-ranging complaint against the superficiality and dismissiveness that she and her friends believed was undermining literary discussion. "We were tired of seeing the same thing every month" was how Vendela Vida put it to me. "Reviews of the big new book that all say the same thing: don't read it."


    Julavits made a similar point a few weeks ago. We were sitting in her skylighted living room on an unusually hot day in a part of Maine where it sometimes seems that you can't swing a dead lobster without hitting a rusticating writer of one kind or another. Like Mark Greif, she responded to the heat with hot tea. "I really saw 'the end of the book' as originating in the way books are talked about now in our culture and especially in the most esteemed venues for book criticism. It seemed as though their irrelevance was a foregone conclusion, and we were just practicing this quaint exercise of pretending something mattered when of course everyone knew it didn't."


    Her frustration, it seems, is not so much with book reviewing as such but with everything that conspires to trivialize literary discourse and to prevent books - and not only books but also music, movies, opinions, utopian dreams - from being taken seriously. Like the editors of n+1, she and her colleagues speak a language that is not only literary but unapologetically highbrow, less in its choice of objects than in the way it perceives them. The Believer is happy to write about pop songs or reality television, to make jokes and indulge in whimsy, but it tends to disdain the nonchalant, knowing sarcasm that has become, elsewhere, the dominant form of cleverness.




    In the end, this may be the common ground n+1 and The Believer occupy: a demand for seriousness that cuts against ingrained generational habits of flippancy and prankishness. Their differences are differences of emphasis and style - and the failings that each may find in the other (or that even a sympathetic reader may find in both) come from their deep investments in voice, stance and attitude rather than in a particular set of ideas or positions. For The Believer, the way to take things seriously is to care about them - "to endow something with importance," in Julavits's words, "by treating it as an emotional experience." And this can lead, at times, to the credulous, seemingly disingenuous naïveté that Greif finds infantile. For n+1, the index of seriousness is thought for its own sake, which can sanction an especially highhanded form of intellectual arrogance. But, of course, this distinction, between a party of ardor and a party of rigor, is itself too schematic, since The Believer, at its best, is nothing if not thoughtful, and n+1 frequently wears its passions on its sleeve.


    Their arguments are likely to continue, and then, eventually, to cool, as the journals themselves turn into institutions or fade into oblivion. Either way, they will serve as incitements to future projects - whether as lost possibilities in need of revival or missed opportunities in need of correction. In the meantime, what they provide is space - room for the exploration of hunches, experiments, blind alleys and starry-eyed hopes, by readers and writers whose small numbers can be a source of pride. Surveying the political scene in the wake of the last election, Kunkel took some solace in the idea that "our lives remain their own great cause." And if not, then perhaps our magazines will.


    A.O. Scott is a film critic at The New York Times.





  • Does the Truth Lie Within?




    Illustration by Head Case Design

    September 11, 2005
    Does the Truth Lie Within?
    By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT
    The Accidental Diet

    Seth Roberts is a 52-year-old psychology professor at the University of California at Berkeley. If you knew Roberts 25 years ago, you might remember him as a man with problems. He had acne, and most days he woke up too early, which left him exhausted. He wasn't depressed, but he wasn't always in the best of moods. Most troubling to Roberts, he was overweight: at 5-foot-11, he weighed 200 pounds.

    When you encounter Seth Roberts today, he is a clear-skinned, well-rested, entirely affable man who weighs about 160 pounds and looks 10 years younger than his age. How did this happen?

    It began when Roberts was a graduate student. First he had the clever idea of turning his personal problems into research subjects. Then he decided that he would use his own body as a laboratory. Thus did Roberts embark on one of the longest bouts of scientific self-experimentation known to man - not only poking, prodding and measuring himself more than might be wise but also rigorously recording every data point along the way.

    Self-experimentation, though hardly a new idea in the sciences, remains rare. Many modern scientists dismiss it as being not nearly scientific enough: there is no obvious control group, and you can hardly run a double-blind experiment when the researcher and subject are the same person. But might the not-quite-scientific nature of self-experimentation also be a good thing? A great many laboratory-based scientific experiments, especially those in the medical field, are later revealed to have been marred by poor methodology or blatant self-interest. In the case of Roberts, his self-interest is extreme, but at least it is obvious. His methodology is so simple - trying a million solutions until he finds one that works - that it creates the utmost transparency.




    In some ways, self-experimentation has more in common with economics than with the hard sciences. Without the ability to run randomized experiments, economists are often left to exploit whatever data they can get hold of. Let's say you're an economist trying to measure the effect of imprisonment on crime rates. What you would ideally like to do is have a few randomly chosen states suddenly release 10,000 prisoners, while another few random states lock up an extra 10,000 people. In the absence of such a perfect experiment, you are forced to rely on creative proxies - like lawsuits that charge various states with prison overcrowding, which down the road lead to essentially random releases of large numbers of prisoners. (And yes, crime in those states does rise sharply after the prisoners are released.)

    What could be a more opportunistic means of generating data than exploiting your own body? Roberts started small, with his acne, then moved on to his early waking. It took him more than 10 years of experimenting, but he found that his morning insomnia could be cured if, on the previous day, he got lots of morning light, skipped breakfast and spent at least eight hours standing.

    Stranger yet was the fix he discovered for lifting his mood: at least one hour each morning of TV viewing, specifically life-size talking heads - but never such TV at night. Once he stumbled upon this solution, Roberts, like many scientists, looked back to the Stone Age for explication. Anthropological research suggests that early humans had lots of face-to-face contact every morning but precious little after dark, a pattern that Roberts's TV viewing now mimicked.

    It was also the Stone Age that informed his system of weight control. Over the years, he had tried a sushi diet, a tubular-pasta diet, a five-liters-of-water-a-day diet and various others. They all proved ineffective or too hard or too boring to sustain. He had by now come to embrace the theory that our bodies are regulated by a "set point," a sort of Stone Age thermostat that sets an optimal weight for each person. This thermostat, however, works the opposite of the one in your home. When your home gets cold, the thermostat turns on the furnace. But according to Roberts's interpretation of the set-point theory, when food is scarcer, you become less hungry; and you get hungrier when there's a lot of food around.

    This may sound backward, like telling your home's furnace to run only in the summer. But there is a key difference between home heat and calories: while there is no good way to store the warm air in your home for the next winter, there is a way to store today's calories for future use. It's called fat. In this regard, fat is like money: you can earn it today, put it in the bank and withdraw it later when needed.

    During an era of scarcity - an era when the next meal depended on a successful hunt, not a successful phone call to Hunan Garden - this set-point system was vital. It allowed you to spend down your fat savings when food was scarce and make deposits when food was plentiful. Roberts was convinced that this system was accompanied by a powerful signaling mechanism: whenever you ate a food that was flavorful (which correlated with a time of abundance) and familiar (which indicated that you had eaten this food before and benefited from it), your body demanded that you bank as many of those calories as possible.

    Roberts understood that these signals were learned associations - as dependable as Pavlov's bell - that once upon a time served humankind well. Today, however, at least in places with constant opportunities to eat, these signals can lead to a big, fat problem: rampant overeating.

    So Roberts tried to game this Stone Age system. What if he could keep his thermostat low by sending fewer flavor signals? One obvious solution was a bland diet, but that didn't interest Roberts. (He is, in fact, a serious foodie.) After a great deal of experimenting, he discovered two agents capable of tricking the set-point system. A few tablespoons of unflavored oil (he used canola or extra light olive oil), swallowed a few times a day between mealtimes, gave his body some calories but didn't trip the signal to stock up on more. Several ounces of sugar water (he used granulated fructose, which has a lower glycemic index than table sugar) produced the same effect. (Sweetness does not seem to act as a "flavor" in the body's caloric-signaling system.)

    The results were astounding. Roberts lost 40 pounds and never gained it back. He could eat pretty much whenever and whatever he wanted, but he was far less hungry than he had ever been. Friends and colleagues tried his diet, usually with similar results. His regimen seems to satisfy a set of requirements that many commercial diets do not: it was easy, built on a scientific theory and, most important, it did not leave Roberts hungry.




    In the academic community, Roberts's self-experimentation has found critics but also serious admirers. Among the latter are the esteemed psychologist Robert Rosenthal, who has praised Roberts for "approaching data in an exploratory spirit more than, or at least in addition to, a confirmatory spirit" and for seeing data analysis "as the opportunity to confront a surprise." Rosenthal went so far as to envision "a time in the future when 'self-experimenter' became a new part-time (or full-time) profession."

    But will Seth Roberts's strange weight-control solution - he calls it the Shangri-La Diet - really work for the millions of people who need it? We may soon find out. With the Atkins diet company filing for bankruptcy, America is eager for its next diet craze. And a few spoonfuls of sugar may be just the kind of sacrifice that Americans can handle.

    Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt are the authors of "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything." More information on the academic research behind this column is at www.freakonomics.com.

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  •  




    Norman Y. Lono for The New York Times

    Mick Jagger fronting the Rolling Stones at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night with, from left, Ron Woods, Keith Richards and Charlie Watts.

    September 14, 2005
    They May Be Seniors but They’re Still the Stones
    By BEN RATLIFF

    "Thangyaooh! Thangyaooh! Splendid! Are you feeling good?" Toward the end of the Rolling Stones' concert at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night, Mick Jagger did his fascinating preteen girl walk - on his toes, heels almost coming down as an afterthought - to sweep fully across the stage one more time. And a particularly strong version of "Jumpin' Jack Flash" motored up, ending the band's 20th show at the Garden since 1969.

    The Stones are touring behind their album of new material, "A Bigger Bang," (Virgin) released last week, their first album of new material in eight years. Their last tour, in 2002 and 2003, came after a greatest-hits collection, "Forty Licks," and those shows enshrined the back catalog by showing, on the screens above the stage, an image of a Stones album cover appropriate to the number being played. This tour, on the other hand, is partly about some new songs that sound old.

    But the Stones have sort of stopped being "about" things: it's outside all brackets, connected to very little current rock 'n' roll, and not any kind of normal working band. Since they don't mesh much with the context of the outside world, one can just focus on the work itself - the perseverance of Mr. Jagger's imposing body language, and the weirdly overdecorated groove carpentered by the guitarists Keith Richards and Ron Wood, the drummer Charlie Watts and the bassist Darryl Jones.

    Mr. Watts and Mr. Jones stamped out tight rhythm all night, while Mr. Richards and Mr. Wood played their charmingly sloppy push-pull game, sometimes getting the tangle of slashing chords and winding, bending notes to sound elegant, but often wobbling off track. "Start Me Up" had some awkward out-of-sync moments; "Infamy," from the new album, contained long stretches of piled-on guitar that seemed to go against the idea of musicians playing particular musical roles. There were long, extended vamps that didn't really build, and "19th Nervous Breakdown," the evening's surprise, was also one of its draggier moments. The Stones haven't often played it in recent years, and they took it at half-tempo, with four guitars in the mix, including Mr. Jagger and the backup musician Blondie Chaplin. It didn't sound like a song about panic. It sounded more like a song about hot-tub therapy.

    But there were surges of power during the set. "Jumpin' Jack Flash," for one, which settled into a perfect tempo with full concentration; ditto "It's Only Rock 'n' Roll" and the new "Rough Justice." Mr. Richards continues to supply many of the band's best moments. Several times he broke out of his serene, smiling demeanor and strode forward purposefully to play hard iterations of Chuck Berry riffs, and in "Miss You," while the stage extended forward to the middle of the theater with the band on it, he improvised continuous, well-wrought blues licks.

    Mr. Jagger, for his part, smoothed over the rough spots. Barely smiling, jaws flexing as he raced around working at his craft, exercising the crowd with chants and falsetto taunts, he showed amazing willpower: he is determined to make the big-theater ritual work as it used to.

    Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Back to Top

September 13, 2005

  • Uprooted and Scattered Far From the Familiar




    Vincent Laforet/The New York Times

    A cemetery melts into parallel gray lines of crypts and crosses outside New Orleans


    September 11, 2005

    Uprooted and Scattered Far From the Familiar




    BLUFFDALE, Utah, Sept. 9 - Carrying the scraps of their lives in plastic trash bags, citizens of the drowned city of New Orleans landed in a strange new place a week ago and wondered where they were. The land was brown, and nearly everyone they saw was white.


    "I'm still not sure where I am - what do they call this, the upper West or something?" said Shelvin Cooter, 30, one of 583 people relocated from New Orleans to a National Guard camp here on a sagebrush plateau south of Salt Lake City, 1,410 miles from home.


    "We're getting shown a lot of love, but we're also getting a lot of stares like we're aliens or something," Mr. Cooter said. "Am I the only person out here with dreadlocks?"


    Hurricane Katrina has produced a diaspora of historic proportions. Not since the Dust Bowl of the 1930's or the end of the Civil War in the 1860's have so many Americans been on the move from a single event. Federal officials who are guiding the evacuation say 400,000 to upwards of one million people have been displaced from ruined homes, mainly in the New Orleans metropolitan area.


    Texas has taken in more than 230,000 people, according to Gov. Rick Perry. But others are scattered across the United States, airlifted from a city that is nine feet below sea level to mile-high shelters in Colorado, to desert mesas in New Mexico, piney woods in Arkansas, flatlands in Oklahoma, the breezy shore of Cape Cod and the beige-colored Wasatch Mountain front in Utah.


    Many say they will never go back, vowing to build new lives in strange lands, marked forever by the storm that forced their exodus. They seem dazed and disconnected, though happy to be alive, to be breathing clean air, to be dry. Others say they still feel utterly lost, uprooted from all that is familiar, desperate to find a missing brother or aunt.


    "The people are so nice, but this place is really strange to me," said Desiree Thompson, who arrived in Albuquerque last Sunday with six of her children and two grandchildren, along with about 100 other evacuees. "The air is different. My nose feels all dry. The only thing I've seen that looks familiar is the McDonalds."


    It came as a shock to Ms. Thompson and others when they were told of their destination - in mid-flight. They had boarded a military plane out of New Orleans last weekend, expecting to go to Texas, many of them said.


    "In the middle of the flight they told us they were taking us to New Mexico," Ms. Thompson said. "New Mexico! Everyone said, 'My God, they're taking us to another country.' "


    It was bad enough, Ms. Thompson said, that one of her sons is in another city and that a close family friend is still missing. She cried at the thought of them. Being in a place that felt so far away and foreign only added to the sense of dislocation.


    Not that New Mexico - the Land of Enchantment, rainbow-colored chili peppers and a black population of barely 3 percent - has not tried to make the exiled residents of New Orleans feel at home. Naomi Mosley offered free hair styling - "mostly relaxers and hair-straightening," she said - to a handful of women at her parlor, and the Rev. Calvin Robinson was one of the preachers doling out counseling and soul food at a church in Albuquerque.


    "This is almost like the exodus of Moses," Mr. Robinson said. "These people have left everything behind. Their friends and relatives are far away. Most of what they had is gone forever. They feel abandoned by the government, but we are trying to make them feel at home."


    After he consumed two plates of mustard greens, fried chicken, potato salad and corn bread at God's House Church in Albuquerque, 67-year-old Walter Antoine said the dinner was the nearest thing to New Orleans comfort food he has had in more than a week. Like others, he was sleeping on a cot at the Albuquerque convention center and was bused to the church for dinner.


    But sitting outside at sunset, with the 10,000-foot Sandia Mountains in the background, Mr. Antoine was pining for home, for his wife and for anything that looked or felt familiar. He had walked through knee-high water to a levee, where a helicopter rescued him. "See, I can't get around all that well because I'm a double amputee," he said, lifting his pants to show two prosthetic legs. "If I had a brother or sister or someone here, maybe I might stay. But I don't know anybody. If I'm going to die, I want to die back in New Orleans."


    But with the prospect that New Orleans could remain uninhabitable for months, many of those displaced by the hurricane say they are eager to start anew and never go back. They will always have what federal officials are calling the worst natural disaster in the United States as their common ground, but for now many people say they want to blend in and shed the horror of predatory winds, fetid water and lost loved ones.


    "It's just time for another change, for me to start my life over," said Matthew Brown, 37, newly relocated to Amarillo, in the dusty panhandle of Texas. "I have a job and a couple of offers. The money's nice. People like me, treat me right."


    Some 70 years ago, Amarillo was losing people, as the largest city inside the hardest-hit area of the Dust Bowl. As skies darkened with mile-high walls of dust and the land dried up, nearly 250,000 people fled from parts of five states in the Southern Plains. They were called Okies and Arkies, and many of them were not welcome in places like Los Angeles, where sheriff's deputies arrested people without visible means of support.


    Now the Texas Panhandle, along with Oklahoma to the north, is on the receiving end of people made homeless by a force of nature. And while the evacuees say they have been struck by the kindness of the volunteers and residents, their relocation could start to strain state services. Texas officials have already indicated that state facilities are near capacity. Nearly 6,000 children from Louisiana have enrolled in Texas schools. After a request from Governor Perry, evacuees were flown to at least 12 other states. But thousands simply moved on their own, arriving by bus or car.


    "In some ways this is comparable to the close of the Civil War, or the Dust Bowl, but we have greater numbers now and there's the suddenness of this movement - within a day or two, nearly a million people left their homes," said Jeff Ferrell, a professor of sociology at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth, who has studied urban dislocation.


    "There's been a tremendously generous response," he said. "But what happens over the next few months? In Texas, we couldn't even get the Legislature to fully fund the schools."


    The diaspora is also concentrated close to home. Baton Rouge has nearly doubled from its prestorm population of 250,000, according to some city estimates, and that has already caused some grumbling among its residents. From there, evacuees spread out in ripples, with heavy populations in Georgia, Arkansas and Texas, and then to the nation's far corners, to the Rocky Mountain states, the Pacific Northwest and New England.


    For now, after complaints from people who said they were being moved too many times, making it difficult to get anchored, federal officials say they are putting a hold on plans to fly large groups of people to other states.


    Joseph Haynes moved his wife, a family friend and two grown sons to Seattle, arriving in two cars after a 2,100-mile journey from their home in New Orleans. Mr. Haynes said he left behind a house he owns and a mechanic's job that he suspects will never return. He headed for Seattle because one of his sons lives there.


    "What good is me going back with my family to a city that is dead?" he said. "Then my life would be dead. So I need to move on."


    Here in Utah, more than a 100 of the evacuees have boarded buses from the shelter to go to Denver and Dallas, and then beyond. They said they needed to be closer to home. But others have already found jobs in the Beehive State, which has a black population of less than 1 percent, according to the last census, and they say they intend to stay.


    "I didn't have a clue where they were taking us," said Reginald Allen, 36, smoking a cigarette outside his temporary home at Camp Williams. "But when they told us it was Utah, I just said, 'Well, it's a change. I got to adapt.' And now I got a job, and I plan to make this my home. I think I could be a cold-weather guy.' "


    The Red Cross, which has been widely praised for running many of the shelters, helped to organize a job fair here on Thursday, which resulted in the hiring of 40 people.


    But there are some incongruous sights. Inside the community center at Camp Williams, where people are staying in barracks-style rooms, a posted sign gave notice of the chance to use the "rock-climbing wall today" as well the impending arrival of "ethnic hair products."


    Like other shelters that are emptying quickly as people move into apartments, the one here was full of rolling rumors about a $2,000 debit card from the government - initially offered, then withdrawn by FEMA, then offered again - and clues about missing family members. Some of the evacuees still have a 2,000-mile stare, and they are frustrated by their inability to connect with people who were left behind, who may be dead or lost or in another distant shelter.


    "I got out on a helicopter line, but I saw one woman, she was too heavy, and she snapped the cable and fell into the water," said George Lee Jr., 24. "Back home, the roof caved in on my bedroom, in my grandma's house. But I'm O.K. My plan now is to find a job, save some money, and then maybe move to Florida."


    For those who do stay here, one question was whether they would become more like people in Utah, or if Utahans would become more like them. There was some evidence of the latter. This week, a Cajun-themed dinner was planned in Salt Lake City for one of the most far-flung of the wandering tribes of New Orleans.


    Maureen Balleza, in Houston, and David Carrillo Peñaloza, in Seattle, contributed reporting for this article.





  • Lost at Tora Bora




    Erik de Castro/Reuters

    Dec. 16, 2001 - Despite the Afghan and American assault on Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden escaped.

    Lost at Tora Bora
    By MARY ANNE WEAVER

    Well past midnight one morning in early December 2001, according to American intelligence officials, Osama bin Laden sat with a group of top aides - including members of his elite international 055 Brigade - in the mountainous redoubt of Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan. Outside, it was blustery and bitterly cold; many of the passes of the White Mountains, of which Tora Bora forms a part, were already blocked by snow. But inside the cave complex, where bin Laden had sought his final refuge from the American war in Afghanistan - a war in which Washington, that October, had struck back for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks - bin Laden munched on olives and sipped sugary mint tea. He was dressed in his signature camouflage jacket, and a Kalashnikov rested by his side. Captured Qaeda fighters, interviewed separately, told American interrogators that they recalled an address that bin Laden had made to his followers shortly before dawn. It concerned martyrdom. American bombs, including a 15,000-pound "daisy cutter," were raining from the sky and pulverizing a number of the Tora Bora caves. And yet, one American intelligence official told me recently, if any one thing distinguished Osama bin Laden on that cold December day, it was the fact that the 44-year-old Saudi multimillionaire appeared to be supremely confident.

    The first time bin Laden had seen the Tora Bora caves, he had been a young mujahedeen fighter and a recent university graduate with a degree in civil engineering. It had been some 20 years before, during Washington's first Afghan war, the decade-long, C.I.A.-financed jihad of the 1980's against the Soviet occupation. Rising to more than 13,000 feet, 35 miles southwest of the provincial capital of Jalalabad, Tora Bora was a fortress of snow-capped peaks, steep valleys and fortified caves. Its miles of tunnels, bunkers and base camps, dug deeply into the steep rock walls, had been part of a C.I.A.-financed complex built for the mujahedeen. Bin Laden had flown in dozens of bulldozers and other pieces of heavy equipment from his father's construction empire, the Saudi Binladin Group, one of the most prosperous construction companies in Saudi Arabia and throughout the Persian Gulf. According to one frequently told story, bin Laden would drive one of the bulldozers himself across the precipitous mountain peaks, constructing defensive tunnels and storage depots.

    Indeed, by December 2001, when the final battle of Tora Bora took place, the cave complex had been so refined that it was said to have its own ventilation system and a power system created by a series of hydroelectric generators; bin Laden is believed to have designed the latter. Tora Bora's walls and the floors of its hundreds of rooms were finished and smooth and extended some 350 yards into the granite mountain that enveloped them.

    Now, as the last major battle of the war in Afghanistan began, hidden from view inside the caves were an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 well-trained, well-armed men. A mile below, at the base of the caves, some three dozen U.S. Special Forces troops fanned out. They were the only ground forces that senior American military leaders had committed to the Tora Bora campaign.


    Yunis Khalis long worried that such a moment would arrive. A theologian and warrior of considerable repute, Khalis knew the Americans well: he had fought for them two decades before. And if there was one thing that the octogenarian leader knew, it was that he really didn't like the Americans much at all. Nevertheless, as one head of the fratricidal alliance of Afghan resistance groups, he had accepted Washington's largess, and over the years, as the war against the Soviet occupiers progressed, Khalis, among the seven resistance leaders, would receive the third-largest share of the more than $3 billion of weapons and funds that the C.I.A. invested in the jihad. As the godfather of Jalalabad, the capital of the province of Nangarhar, Khalis controlled a vast territory, including Tora Bora. It had been a key operational center for his fighters during the anti-Soviet war. And it was a key operational center for Osama bin Laden now. The caves were so close that Khalis could see them from the verandah of his sprawling stucco home.

    One evening earlier this summer, I asked Masood Farivar, a former Khalis officer who had fought in Tora Bora during the jihad, to tell me why the caves were so important. "They're rugged, formidable and isolated," he said. "If you know them, you can come and go with ease. But if you don't, they're a labyrinth that you can't penetrate. They rise in some places to 14,000 feet, and for 10 years the Soviets pummeled them with everything they had, but to absolutely no avail. Another reason they're so important is their proximity to the border and to Pakistan" - less than 20 miles away.

    Bin Laden knew the caves as well as Farivar and Khalis did. He had fought in nearby Jaji and Ali Khel and in the 1989 battle of Jalalabad. He knew every ridge and mountain pass, every C.I.A. trail. For this was the area where bin Laden had spent more than a decade of his life.

    It was also during the war years that bin Laden first met Khalis; the two men became very close friends. Indeed, when bin Laden returned to Afghanistan in May 1996 from his base in the Sudan (after the United States insisted that the Sudanese government expel him), it was Khalis, along with two of his key commanders - Hajji Abdul Qadir and Engineer Mahmoud - who first invited him. And it was also Khalis who, later that year, would introduce bin Laden to the one-eyed leader of the Taliban, Mullah Muhammad Omar, who had fought with Khalis - and would later become his protégé - during the jihad.

    "Khalis had an avuncular interest in bin Laden," Michael Scheuer, the former head of the C.I.A.'s bin Laden unit and the author of "Imperial Hubris," told me recently when we met at a Washington coffeehouse. "Osama lost his father when he was young, and Khalis became a substitute father figure to him. As far as Khalis was concerned, he considered Osama the perfect Islamic youth."

    Bin Laden, along with his four wives and 20-some children, moved into the well-fortified Khalis family compound nine years ago and then to a farm on the outskirts of Jalalabad. But shortly thereafter, Engineer Mahmoud was assassinated, and there were two assassination attempts against bin Laden, too. "They were both very crude," Scheuer said, "and they smacked of the Saudis" - who had earlier tried to assassinate bin Laden in Khartoum. "As a result, bin Laden wanted to move away from the main road. So Khalis gave him two of his fighting positions in the mountains - Tora Bora and Milawa. Bin Laden immediately began to customize and rebuild the two: Tora Bora for his family and his key aides; Milawa for his fighters and as a command center and logistics hub. By the time bin Laden moved to Kandahar" - then a Taliban stronghold - "in May of 1997, the two mountain redoubts had been completely refurbished and modernized: they were there, just waiting for him in 2001."

    Some six weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks and nearly two weeks after the bombing of Afghanistan began on Oct. 7, American military leaders - who had no off-the-shelf invasion plans, not even an outline, for Afghanistan - finally succeeded in getting the first forces in: a 12-man Special Forces A-team helicoptered in from Uzbekistan to the Panjshir Valley. There they joined forces with the Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban militia that controlled only 10 percent of Afghanistan but to whom Washington delegated the ground war. The view prevailing among senior American military leaders was that overwhelming air power, suitcases full of cash and surrogate militias could win the war. The intricacies of Afghan tribal life appeared to elude everyone.

    n late October or early November, according to Scheuer, American operatives went to see Khalis to seek his support. "Khalis said that he was retired and doing nothing now," Scheuer told me. "It was the last time" American intelligence officials saw him. "It was so bizarre! Didn't anybody know about Khalis's friendship with bin Laden? Or that Khalis was the only one of the seven mujahedeen leaders who remained neutral about, and sometimes even supported, the Taliban?" He shook his head and then went on: "And even after Sept. 11, indeed in spite of it, as soon as our bombing of Afghanistan began, Khalis issued a well-publicized call for jihad against U.S. forces in Afghanistan."

    When Khalis turned the Americans down, Special Forces troops recruited two of his former commanders. They made an unlikely couple: Hazarat Ali and Hajji Zaman. The former, with just a fourth-grade education, was barely literate, a bully and unrefined; the other was a wealthy drug smuggler, fluent in English and French, and a polished raconteur who was lured back to Afghanistan from his exile in France by the United States. Both were schemers who had come of age on the battlefields of the anti-Soviet war, Ali as a teenager in Tora Bora and Zaman in Jalalabad. Ali had joined the Taliban for a time, then moved north and embraced the Northern Alliance; Zaman had supported neither, and when the Taliban came to power, he chose exile. Ali owed his rise largely to the Pentagon, which ultimately enlisted him to lead the ground battle in the Tora Bora caves; Zaman, a Pashtun leader and member of the Khugyani Tribe, had his own base of support, something that Ali, a member of a minor, non-Pashtun tribal grouping, lacked.

    A third militia leader - less experienced but of more distinguished pedigree - who would bring his forces to Tora Bora was Hajji Zahir, the 27-year-old somewhat skittish son of Hajji Abdul Qadir, Yunis Khalis's former military commander and one of the three men who had welcomed bin Laden when he returned to Afghanistan. Indeed, as the Americans were recruiting his son, Hajji Abdul Qadir was about to reclaim the governorship of Nangarhar Province, a post he had relinquished when the Taliban arrived, in a power transfer Khalis and bin Laden would help to consummate.

    Bin Laden had returned to Jalalabad on or about Nov. 10, a U.S. intelligence official told me recently, and that same afternoon, according to a March 4, 2002, report in The Christian Science Monitor, he gave a fiery speech at the Jalalabad Islamic studies center - as American bombs exploded nearby - to a thousand or so regional tribal leaders, vowing that if united they could teach the Americans "a lesson, the same one we taught the Russians" when many of the chieftains had fought in America's first Afghan war. Dressed in a gray shalwar kameez, the long shirt and bloused trousers favored in Afghanistan, and his camouflage jacket, bin Laden held a small Kalakov, a shorter version of the Kalashnikov, in his hand. As the crowd began to shout "Zindibad [Long live] Osama," the leader of Al Qaeda moved through the banquet hall dispensing white envelopes, some bulky, some thin, the thickness proportionate to the number of extended families under each leader's command. Lesser chieftains, according to those present, received the equivalent of $300 in Pakistani rupees; leaders of larger clans, up to $10,000.

    Bin Laden really didn't have to buy the loyalty of the Pashtun tribal chiefs; they were already devoted to him. He was, after all, the only non-Afghan Muslim of any consequence in the past half-century who had stood with the Afghans. But on that November afternoon, and on the nights that followed it, as bin Laden began to lay the groundwork for his escape from the Tora Bora caves, the elusive Qaeda leader was determined to be absolutely sure.

    The following evening, or the evening after, bin Laden, according to an Afghan intelligence official, dined in Jalalabad with other Pashtun tribal chiefs from Parachinar, Pakistan, an old military outpost I first visited nearly 20 years before. Parachinar had been a key staging area for the C.I.A. during the jihad, and its tribal leaders had profited immensely. A picturesque town in the Kurram Valley, Parachinar was also Pakistan's first line of defense against any Afghan incursion. Beyond it lie only the White Mountains - and the caves of Tora Bora - and desolate stretches of no man's land.

    The last time bin Laden was seen in Jalalabad was the evening of Nov. 13, when he, along with Khalis's son, Mujahid Ullah, and other tribal leaders negotiated a peaceful hand-over of power from the Taliban to a caretaker government. Under its terms, Khalis would take temporary control of the city until the formation of a newly appointed U.S.-backed government. He, of course, made certain that the Eastern Shura, as the government is called, was stacked with men who owed their loyalty to him. Hajji Abdul Qadir, his former military commander, became Nangarhar Province's governor again.

    Bin Laden's Arab fighters had used Jalalabad as a base and as a command center for a number of years, and now they dispersed, loading their weapons and their clothing, their children and their wives into the backs of several hundred lorries, armored vehicles and four-wheel-drive trucks. Some Taliban fighters followed suit. Others disappeared, removing their signature black turbans and returning to their villages and towns.

    As the convoy was being readied, bin Laden said his goodbyes: to the Taliban governor; to Mujahid Ullah, Khalis's son; and to scores of the tribal leaders who had received his white envelopes three days before. He was dressed now as he had been dressed then and cradled his Kalakov, even though he was surrounded by some 60 armed guards.

    Then he entered a custom-designed white Toyota Corolla, and the convoy sped away toward the mountains of Tora Bora, where he waited for the Americans to arrive.

    y late November, Hazarat Ali, Hajji Zaman and Hajji Zahir had assembled a motley force of some 2,500 men - supplemented by a fleet of battered Russian tanks - at the base of Tora Bora. The Afghans were ill equipped and poorly trained. They also lacked the commitment that bin Laden's fighters had. Hidden from view at 5,000 feet and above in the scores of valleys, forests and caves, the Qaeda fighters not only had the tremendous advantage of the terrain; their redoubts were replete with generators, electricity and heat and copious stocks of provisions. Snow covered the mountain, and it was bitterly cold. The Afghan fighters at its base grumbled and quarreled endlessly. It was also the holy month of Ramadan, when Muslims fast from dawn to dusk, and some of the Afghans had the irritating tendency to leave their posts and return home to celebrate iftar, the evening meal that breaks the fast.

    Perhaps more ominous was the growing antipathy between Hazarat Ali and Hajji Zaman: both ruthless, both greedy, both corrupt, both flashing fistfuls of new $100 bills - one a Pashtun, the other not. Their mutual loathing became so intense that on more than one occasion they and their fighters, instead of fighting Al Qaeda, shot each other's men.

    The American bombardment of Tora Bora, which had been going on for a month, yielded to saturation airstrikes on Nov. 30 in anticipation of the ground war. Hundreds of civilians died that weekend, along with a number of Afghan fighters, according to Hajji Zaman, who had already dispatched tribal elders from the region to plead with bin Laden's commanders to abandon Tora Bora. Three days later, on Dec. 3, in one of the war's more shambolic moments, Hazarat Ali announced that the ground offensive would begin. Word quickly spread through the villages and towns, and hundreds of ill-prepared men rushed to the mountain's base. The timing of the call to war was so unexpected that Hajji Zahir, one of its three lead commanders, told journalists at the time that he nearly slept through it.

    On a map, it was little more than a mile from the bottom of the White Mountains to the first tier of the Qaeda caves, but the snow was thick and the slopes were steep and, for the Afghan fighters, it was a three-hour climb. They were ambushed nearly as soon as they arrived. The battle lasted for only 10 minutes before bin Laden's fighters disappeared up the slope and the Afghans limped away. Over the coming days, a pattern would emerge: the Afghans would strike, then retreat. On some occasions, a cave would change hands twice in one day. It was only on the third day of the battle that the three dozen Special Forces troops arrived. But their mission was strictly limited to assisting and advising and calling in air strikes, according to the orders of Gen. Tommy Franks, the head of U.S. Central Command, who was running the war from his headquarters in Tampa, Fla.

    Even after the arrival of the Special Forces, the Afghan militias were making little headway in their efforts to assault the Qaeda caves - largely as a result of heavier resistance than they had expected - despite having launched simultaneous attacks from the east, west and north. They had sent none of their forces to the south, where the highest peaks of the White Mountains are bisected by the border with Pakistan. The commanders, according to news reports, argued vehemently among themselves on what the conditions on the southern side of the mountain were: some insisted it was uncrossable, closed in by snow; other commanders were far less sure.

    By now, the Taliban's stronghold in Kandahar had fallen or, more correctly, had been abandoned by the soldiers of the regime. The Taliban retreat from Kandahar was emblematic of the war. None of Afghanistan's cities had been won by force alone. Taliban fighters, after intense bombing, had simply made strategic withdrawals. A number of American officers were now convinced that this was about to happen at Tora Bora, too.

    One of them was Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis, the commander of some 4,000 marines who had arrived in the Afghan theater by now. Mattis, along with another officer with whom I spoke, was convinced that with these numbers he could have surrounded and sealed off bin Laden's lair, as well as deployed troops to the most sensitive portions of the largely unpatrolled border with Pakistan. He argued strongly that he should be permitted to proceed to the Tora Bora caves. The general was turned down. An American intelligence official told me that the Bush administration later concluded that the refusal of Centcom to dispatch the marines - along with their failure to commit U.S. ground forces to Afghanistan generally - was the gravest error of the war.

    A week or so after General Mattis's request was denied, the turning point in the battle of Tora Bora came. It was Dec. 12. Hajji Zaman had by now realized that the Qaeda fighters were better armed than his men and that they were also prepared to die rather than surrender to him. He was also becoming increasingly irritated with Hazarat Ali and with the snow. And in a few days the feast of Eid al-Fitr, which ends Ramadan, would begin. The stalemate, the Americans' surrogate commander decided, simply had to end. So, through a series of intermediaries and then directly, Hajji Zaman made radio contact with some of bin Laden's commanders and offered a cease-fire. The Americans were furious. The negotiations - to which Hazarat Ali acquiesced since he, too, was now holding secret talks with Al Qaeda - continued for hours. By the time they came to an end, Hajji Zaman's interlocutor, hidden somewhere in the caves above, was probably bin Laden's son Salah Uddin. If the Qaeda forces surrendered, Hajji Zaman's contact said, it would be only to the United Nations. Then he requested additional time to meet with other commanders. He would be back in touch by 8 the following morning, the younger bin Laden said.

    American intelligence officials now believe that some 800 Qaeda fighters escaped Tora Bora that night. Others had already left; still others stayed behind, including bin Laden. "You've got to give him credit," Gary Schroen, a former C.I.A. officer who led the first American paramilitary team into Afghanistan in 2001, told me. "He stayed in Tora Bora until the bitter end." By the time the Afghan militias advanced to the last of the Tora Bora caves, no one of any significance remained: about 20 bedraggled young men were taken prisoner that day, Dec. 17.

    On or about Dec. 16, 2001, according to American intelligence estimates, bin Laden left Tora Bora for the last time, accompanied by bodyguards and aides. Other Qaeda leaders dispersed by different routes, but bin Laden and his men are believed to have journeyed on horseback directly south toward Pakistan, crossing through the same mountain passes and over the same little-known smugglers' trails through which the C.I.A.'s convoys passed during the jihad years. And all along the route, in the dozens of villages and towns on both sides of the frontier, the Pashtun tribes would have lighted campfires along the way to guide the horsemen as they slowly continued through the snow and on toward the old Pakistani military outpost of Parachinar.

    Tora Bora was the one time after the 9/11 attacks when United States operatives were confident they knew precisely where Osama bin Laden was and could have captured or killed him. Some have argued that it was Washington's last chance; others say that although it will be considerably more difficult now, bin Laden is not beyond our reach. But the stakes are considerably higher than they were nearly four years ago, and terrain and political sensibilities are far more our natural enemies now.

    There is no indication that bin Laden ever left Pakistan after he crossed the border that snowy December night; nor is there any indication that he ever left the country's Pashtun tribal lands, moving from Parachinar to Waziristan, then north into Mohmand and Bajaur, one American intelligence official told me. The areas are among the most remote and rugged on earth, and they are vast. Had bin Laden been surrounded at Tora Bora, he would have been confined to an area of several dozen square miles; now he could well be in an area that snakes across some 40,000 square miles.

    Defending its decision not to commit forces to the Tora Bora campaign, members of the Bush administration - including the president, the vice president and Gen. Tommy Franks - have continued to insist, as recently as the last presidential campaign, that there was no definitive information that bin Laden was even in Tora Bora in December 2001. "We don't know to this day whether Mr. bin Laden was at Tora Bora," Franks wrote in an Oct. 19, 2004, Op-Ed article in The New York Times. Intelligence assessments on the Qaeda leader's location varied, Franks continued, and bin Laden was "never within our grasp." It was not until this spring that the Pentagon, after a Freedom of Information Act request, released a document to The Associated Press that says Pentagon investigators believed that bin Laden was at Tora Bora and that he escaped.

    The document's release came at a particularly delicate time for the United States. A newly resurgent Taliban was on the rise. Its attacks on American forces - launched from Pakistan, according to Afghan officials - were more lethal, better organized and more widespread than at any time since the war against terror began. And President Pervez Musharraf, the military ruler of Pakistan who is ostensibly our key ally in that war, had, to a growing extent, become an ally on his own terms. It was only in the last days of July that he once again committed himself to embark on a campaign against his country's Islamic militants. And this was only as a result of suggestions that there were Pakistani links to the bombings that month in London and the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

    At the same time, to Musharraf's irritation, reports surfaced again - from Indian and Afghan officials, Taliban prisoners and opposition politicians in Pakistan - of terrorist training camps in the Mansehra district of northern Pakistan and the restive southern province of Baluchistan. There, the provincial capital of Quetta had, for all intents and purposes, become a Taliban town. Black-turbaned Talibs swaggered through its bazaars, photographs of bin Laden and Taliban banners adorned its muddy lanes and the Taliban leader Mullah Omar was believed to be in residence.

    I puzzled over whether Musharraf's new determination would include finally becoming serious about the hunt for bin Laden. No one to whom I spoke was at all convinced. A few weeks earlier, I had asked George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an expert on South Asian security issues, what he thought about Musharraf's commitment to the search generally. "For me, the outstanding question is, At the highest levels in Islamabad is there a conviction that capturing or killing bin Laden would be good for the leadership of Pakistan?" Perkovich replied. "And given the answer to that question, how hard are they willing to try? And can they afford to be seen as being solidly on America's side? I think Musharraf also worries about whether or not Washington will stay the course. Therefore, he's got to keep the Americans online: hold back something that they want. And, in that respect, Osama could be seen as an insurance policy for them."

    According to Gary Schroen, the former C.I.A. officer, "We're never going to get bin Laden without the total cooperation of Pakistan, and there's a lot more they could do."

    "Such as?" I asked.

    "Winning over their military is imperative," he said. "We've got to convince them that it's in their interest to bring bin Laden in. And that means allowing us to send Special Forces and C.I.A. teams, in sufficient numbers, into the northern areas with the ability to move around, to establish networks on the ground. We've also got to refocus U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan in order to have coordinated military operations between the two sides of the frontier." He paused and said, "It's all up to the Pakistanis now."

    "How would this affect Musharraf if he agreed?" I asked.

    He thought for a moment, and then he replied, "If his hand was ever seen as the one that turned bin Laden over, he wouldn't be able to survive."

    Dec. 16, 2001: Despite the Afghan and American assault on Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden escaped.

    #photograph by erik de castro/reuters/corbis

    Mary Anne Weaver, who has been a Guggenheim fellow and a Council on Foreign Relations fellow this year, is the author of "Pakistan: In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan."

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