Month: November 2011

  • Teaching Good Sex

    Olivia Bee for The New York Times
    Olivia Bee for The New York Times

    The teenagers in these photographs are all from around Portland, Ore.

     

     

    Jeffrey Stockbridge for The New York Times

    Sex Scholar Al Vernacchio, who teaches human sexuality and English at Friends’ Central, a private school near Philadelphia.

     

     

    Olivia Bee for The New York Times

     

     

     

    November 16, 2011
     

    Teaching Good Sex

    By LAURIE ABRAHAM

    “First base, second base, third base, home run,” Al Vernacchio ticked off the classic baseball terms for sex acts. His goal was to prompt the students in Sexuality and Society — an elective for seniors at the private Friends’ Central School on Philadelphia’s affluent Main Line — to examine the assumptions buried in the venerable metaphor. “Give me some more,” urged the fast-talking 47-year-old, who teaches 9th- and 12th-grade English as well as human sexuality. Arrayed before Vernacchio was a circle of small desks occupied by 22 teenagers, six male and the rest female — a blur of sweatshirts and Ugg boots and form-fitting leggings.

    “Grand slam,” called out a boy (who’d later tell me with disarming matter-of-factness that “the one thing Mr. V. talked about that made me feel really good was that penis size doesn’t matter”).

    “Now, ‘grand slam’ has a bunch of different meanings,” replied Vernacchio, who has a master’s degree in human sexuality. “Some people say it’s an orgy, some people say grand slam is a one-night stand. Other stuff?”

    “Grass,” a girl, a cheerleader, offered.

    “If there’s grass on the field, play ball, right, right,” Vernacchio agreed, “which is interesting in this rather hair-phobic society where a lot of people are shaving their pubic hair — ”

    “You know there’s grass, and then it got mowed, a landing strip,” one boy deadpanned, instigating a round of laughter. While these kids will sit poker-faced as Vernacchio expounds on quite graphic matters, class discussions are a spirited call and response, punctuated with guffaws, jokey patter and whispered asides, which Vernacchio tolerates, to a point.

    Vernacchio explained that sex as baseball implies that it’s a game; that one party is the aggressor (almost always the boy), while the other is defending herself; that there is a strict order of play, and you can’t stop until you finish. “If you’re playing baseball,” he elaborated, “you can’t just say, ‘I’m really happy at second base.’ ”

    A boy who was the leader of the Young Conservatives Club asked, “But what if it’s just more pleasure getting to home base?” Although this student is a fan of Vernacchio’s, he likes to challenge him about his tendency to empathize with the female perspective.

    “Well, we’ve talked about how a huge percentage of women aren’t orgasming through vaginal intercourse,” Vernacchio responded, “so if that’s what you call a home run, there’s a lot of women saying” — his voice dropped to a dull monotone — ‘O.K., but this is not doing it for me.’ ”

    In its breadth, depth and frank embrace of sexuality as, what Vernacchio calls, a “force for good” — even for teenagers — this sex-ed class may well be the only one of its kind in the United States. “There is abstinence-only sex education, and there’s abstinence-based sex ed,” said Leslie Kantor, vice president of education for Planned Parenthood Federation of America. “There’s almost nothing else left in public schools.”

    Across the country, the approach ranges from abstinence until marriage is the only acceptable choice, contraceptives don’t work and premarital sex is physically and emotionally harmful, to abstinence is usually best, but if you must have sex, here are some ways to protect yourself from pregnancy and disease. The latter has been called “disaster prevention” education by sex educators who wish they could teach more; a dramatic example of the former comes in a video called “No Second Chances,” which has been used in abstinence-only courses. In it, a student asks a school nurse, “What if I want to have sex before I get married?” To which the nurse replies, “Well, I guess you’ll just have to be prepared to die.”

    In settings outside schools, the constraints typically aren’t as tight. Bill Taverner, director of the Center for Family Life Education for Planned Parenthood of Greater Northern New Jersey, said that his 11 educators are usually given the most freedom with so-called high-risk youth, those in juvenile detention, or who live in poor neighborhoods with high teen-pregnancy rates. “I wish I could say it was for positive reasons,” he said, “but it’s almost as if society has just kind of thrown up their hands and said, ‘Well, these kids are going to have sex anyway, so you might as well not hide anything from them.’ ”

    Sex education in America was invented by Progressive Era reformers like Sears, Roebuck’s president, Julius Rosenwald, and Charles Eliot, the president of Harvard University. Eliot, according to Kristin Luker, author of the book “When Sex Goes to School,” concluded that sex education was so important that he turned down Woodrow Wilson’s offer of the ambassadorship to Britain to join the first national group devoted to promoting the subject. Eliot was one of the so-called social hygienists who thought that teaching people about the “proper uses of sexuality” would help stamp out venereal disease and the sexual double-standard that kept women from achieving full equality. Proper sex meant sex between husband and wife (prostitution was then seen as regrettable but necessary because of men and their “needs”), so educators preached about both the rewards of carnal contact within marriage and the hazards outside of it.

    It wasn’t until the 1960s and 1970s that the pill, feminism and generational rebellion smashed the cultural consensus that sex should be confined to marriage. And for a “brief, fragile period” in the 1970s and early 1980s, writes Luker, a professor of sociology and of law at U.C. Berkeley, “opinion leaders of almost every stripe believed sex education was the best response to the twin problems of teenage pregnancy and H.I.V. AIDS.” It was around this time that the Unitarian Universalist Association started its famously sex-positive curriculum, About Your Sexuality, with details about masturbation and orgasms and slide shows of couples touching one another’s genitals. (The classes are still going strong, though in the late 1990s, the program was replaced with another one without explicit images called Our Whole Lives, a joint project of the U.U.A. and the United Church of Christ.)

    Back then, even public schools taught what came to be called “comprehensive sex education,” nonjudgmental instruction on bodies, birth control, disease prevention and “healthy relationships” — all geared to helping teenagers make responsible choices, one of which might be choosing to become sexually intimate with someone. But by the end of the 1980s, sex ed had taken its place in the basket of wedge issues dividing the right and left. This created the opening for abstinence instruction (the word “abstinence” wasn’t part of the sex-ed vernacular until the 1980s) to bulldoze any curriculum that didn’t treat sex as forbidden for teenagers. But Kantor and many others in the field remain “comprehensive sex ed” believers. To them, the license Vernacchio has to roam the sexual landscape is almost unimaginable.

    Sitting in the conference room at Friends’, a tall, striking girl told me after class one day last winter that she was on the verge of getting involved with someone she really liked but was hesitating because she knew he had a reputation for juggling multiple girlfriends. The girl, who’d had sex twice in 11th grade with a boy she later discovered was sleeping around, wanted to be monogamous with the new guy but didn’t know how to broach it with him. (She was one of 17 students in Sexuality and Society who spoke to me privately; while Vernacchio is happy to discuss any personal information the kids bring up, he doesn’t seek it.)

    Another young woman, who tended to treat her tiny desk in Vernacchio’s class as a lounger, flinging her legs out toward the center of the room, told me that she enjoyed sex for its own sake — the way guys do, as she put it. While she could express this with some bravado now, she came into Sexuality and Society in the beginning of the year uneasy about this aspect of herself, she said. A third girl, who called herself a “really anxious person,” still got choked up discussing a false rumor someone wrote on Facebook last fall: that she’d drunkenly offered oral sex to a boy at a party, who, as it happened, also was enrolled in Sexuality and Society. That young man, who didn’t post the lie and was predictably unfazed by it, had fallen for another classmate. That girl was equally besotted, but because they were in “sex class,” the couple always positioned themselves across the room from each other, never side by side; otherwise, they told me, they’d feel like animals in a zoo. Not that the pair weren’t still on display. With the exception of Vernacchio, everyone knew their status and found it impossible not to notice them locking eyes periodically, smiling briefly, before she’d duck her head, push her long, shiny hair behind her ears and turn her gaze back to her teacher.

    “Mr. V. takes every question seriously,” another girl, the student-council vice president, told me. “You never feel like it’s the wise sexuality master preaching to the young.” Yet Vernacchio also doesn’t give off the vibe that he wants to be young, or imagines that he still is. His attire every day for the two weeks I attended the class in February was a sweater vest over a button-down shirt and tie, except for Valentine’s Day, when he shed the vest for a ruby red shirt and a tie decorated with hearts. That day Vernacchio gave all of his students brightly colored origami hearts he made himself; the members of Sexuality and Society reciprocated by sending him a singing Valentine (a “Glee”-worthy rendition of “Everytime We Touch,” by the boys’ barbershop choir).

    Vernacchio is nothing so much as a mensch. Gay, with a partner of 17 years, he has ruddy cheeks, a quick smile and a plane of brown hair overhanging his brow, from which he must regularly wipe away sweat during intense discussions. He lectures with plainspoken authority while also conveying a deep curiosity about his subject — the consummate sex scholar.

    During a lesson about recognizing your “crumble lines” — comments that play to your vulnerability and may make you “act against your values” — Vernacchio, a self-described “short, round, hairy guy” who struggles with body-image issues, revealed his own tendency to fall for anybody who compliments his appearance: “You say you think I’m pretty. I’ll do anything for you.” He was exaggerating a bit for effect, but the poignancy of the self-disclosure wasn’t lost on the class.

    Friends’ Central, a Quaker prep school that prides itself on both its academic rigor and its ethic of social responsibility, is tucked away in the bucolic hills of suburban Philadelphia. Vernacchio joined the school’s English department in 1998, and when, three years later, he asked to start Sexuality and Society, administrators were delighted. “He teaches at the very highest level,” said David Felsen, who in June retired as headmaster of the school after 23 years. Because Vernacchio was such a gifted instructor, Felsen said, he didn’t worry about parents’ reactions. And in fact, Vernacchio says that no one has ever complained or even voiced reservations about something he discussed in class.

    The parents I spoke to — ranging from a father who said he loves his son “to pieces” but wishes he knew him better to a mom who gets frequent updates from her daughter now in college — seemed grateful for the class. “My daughter is sometimes private,” another mother said, “and I appreciate that there was another place she could go to get good, healthy information.” Early in the year, Vernacchio gives an assignment asking students to interview a parent about how he or she learned about sex, and the father said his son handled it with aplomb: “He was very natural, and I’m the one thinking, This is embarrassing. He was a lot more mature about the conversation than I was.”

    Sexuality and Society begins in the fall with a discussion of how to recognize and form your own values, then moves through topics like sexual orientation (occasionally students identify as gay or transgender, Vernacchio said, but in this particular class none did); safer sex; relationships; sexual health; and the emotional and physical terrain of sexual activity. (The standard public-school curriculum sticks to S.T.I.’s and contraceptive methods, and it can go by in a blink; in a Kaiser Family Foundation survey, two-thirds of principals said that the subject was covered in just several class periods.) Vernacchio also teaches a mandatory six-session sexuality course for ninth graders that covers some of the same material presented to the older kids, though less fully.

    The lessons that tend to raise eyebrows outside the school, according to Vernacchio, are a medical research video he shows of a woman ejaculating — students are allowed to excuse themselves if they prefer not to watch — and a couple of dozen up-close photographs of vulvas and penises. The photos, Vernacchio said, are intended to show his charges the broad range of what’s out there. “It’s really a process of desensitizing them to what real genitals look like so they’ll be less freaked out by their own and, one day, their partner’s,” he said. What’s interesting, he added, is that both the boys and girls receive the photographs of the penises rather placidly but often insist that the vulvas don’t look “normal.” “They have no point of reference for what a normal, healthy vulva looks like, even their own,” Vernacchio said. The female student-council vice president agreed: “When we did the biology unit, I probably would’ve been able to label just as many of the boys’ body parts as the girls’, which is sad. I mean, you should know about the names of your own body.”

    Vernacchio is aware that his utter lack of self-consciousness in conversing about sexual matters is unusual. “When God was passing out talents,” he likes to say, “I got ease in talking about sex.” But any plan of God’s, whom Vernacchio, a practicing Catholic, often references, was nudged along by two earthly happenings. “As a little kid,” Vernacchio said, “I got pegged as a good public speaker, so I started narrating all the school plays and reading at church; I got over the fear of speaking really early.” Then, around age 12, he started to research sex, having known from kindergarten that he was different in a “way that had to do with boys and girls.” He looked up homosexuality in the family dictionary, then took to going to libraries and planting himself in the sexuality section of the stacks. “I used to have the Dewey-decimal number for homosexuality memorized.” He was entirely on his own. There was no discussion of being gay at Vernacchio’s all-boys school; none from his parish priest, who at the end of sermons offered a prayer for “veterans of foreign wars, people who live near nuclear power plants and homosexuals”; and not from his parents, either, even after he came out to them at 19. Indeed, one night several years later, his mom was doing dinner dishes at the sink and his dad was plopped on the couch a few feet away in their tiny South Philly house, and Vernacchio mustered the courage to tell them that he was happily dating someone. “My mom never turned around, never reacted in any way, and my dad turned to me, didn’t miss a beat and said, ‘Whatever happened to the metric system?’ ”

    It was drummed into him as a human-sexuality master’s student, Vernacchio said, to never be explicit merely for the sake of being explicit: have a rationale for every last thing you say. Which occurred to me one day listening to him answer an anonymous question — there’s a box on the bookshelf where students can drop them — about whether a girl’s urge to urinate during intercourse might be a precursor to female ejaculation. He laid out a plethora of explanations for the feeling, everything from anxiety about having sex to a bladder infection to the possibility that the young woman was getting “some really good G-spot stimulation” and in fact verging on ejaculation.

    “If kids are starting to use their bodies sexually, they should know about their potentialities,” Vernacchio told me later. “It’s O.K. that boys ejaculate, that’s totally normalized” — wet dreams have been standard fare for middle-school health class for decades — “but girls, gross! Girls will think they’re peeing themselves, and it’s really shameful.”

    “I just love this class — you can ask anything,” a member of the girls’ basketball team told me one day in February. She wears her long blond hair in two braids and shyly divulged that she was in love with her boyfriend of eight months. “You may not be able to get the best information on the Internet, but you can ask Mr. V., and he’ll either know it or ask his sex-ed friends,” she said, referring to a sex-educators’ e-mail list that Vernacchio consults.

    Two boys who told me they’d been masturbating to Internet porn since middle school said they found themselves disoriented at the real-life encounters they had with girls, but Vernacchio helped them grasp the disjuncture. Pornography “gives boys the impression that the girl is there to do any position you want, or to please you, or to, you know, role-play to your liking,” one of them said. “But yesterday, when Mr. V. said there is no romanticism or intimacy in porn, porn is strictly sexual — I’d never thought about that.”

    One young man in the class told me he had intercourse with 10 girls, but he was a relative outlier. While most of the students had had intercourse — 70 percent of teenagers do so by their 19th birthday, according to the Gutt­macher Institute — only 4 of the 17 I spoke with reported having three or more partners; 10 had had one or two; the other three were virgins.

    But the numbers fail to capture the variation within the sexual histories. Of the two girls with more than two partners, one was the girl who appreciated purely sexual encounters. The other told me that during the summer before ninth grade, she was raped one night on a beach by a stranger. She told no one, she said, and she subsequently got together with a number of boys in what she now saw as a misguided effort to “take control” of her sexuality.

    As to whether his class encourages teenagers to have sex — a protest perennially lodged against even basic sex ed (though pretty firmly disproved by research) — Vernacchio said that he portrays sex in all its glory and complications. “As much as I say, ‘This is how orgasms work, and they’re really cool,’ I say there’s a lot of work to being in a relationship and having sex. I don’t think I have the power to make sex sound so enticing that kids are going to break through their self-esteem issues or body stuff or parental pressures or whatever to just go do it.” And anyway, Vernacchio went on, “I don’t necessarily see the decision to become sexually active when you’re 17 as an unhealthy one.” His goal is for young people to know their own minds, be clear about what they do and don’t want and use their self-knowledge to make choices.

    To that end, he spends one class leading the students through a kind of cost-benefit analysis of various types of relationships, from friendship to old-school dating to hookups. When he asked his students about the benefits of hookups, the kids volunteered: “No expected commitment,” “Sexual pleasure” and “Guarding emotions,” meaning you can enjoy yourself without the messiness of attachment.

    “Yep,” Vernacchio said, “sometimes a hookup is all you want.” Then he pressed them for drawbacks.

    “You may not be able to control your emotions,” someone called out.

    “O.K.,” Vernacchio said approvingly. “What else?”

    “It’s confusing,” said the student-council vice president.

    “Yeah,” Vernacchio said, explaining that two people may have different ideas about what it means to hook up, which is why communication is so important. (“If you can’t talk about it, you probably shouldn’t be doing it,” he says.)

    “People saying, ‘Oh, she’s a slut,’ ‘Oh, he’s a man-whore,’ ” floated a boy who described himself to me as a “lonesome outcast” until 11th grade, when he finally started to make friends. “I guess for women it’s usually seen as more of a bad thing.”

    “Right,” Vernacchio agreed, “but there’s pressure on guys too. Guys get the, ‘Oh, yeah, he’s a player,’ but what if you’re really not? And then you feel pressure to maintain that.”

    Vernacchio rarely misses a chance to ask his students to examine gender bias in their sexual attitudes or behavior. The girl who “admitted” to liking sex as much as boys did said that Vernacchio’s consistent affirmation of the variety of sexual preferences (“Guys aren’t necessarily naturally hornier than girls — there’s a huge social piece of this,” he told the class) helped her shake her sense of deviance and shame. In fact, she felt confident enough to debate her point of view in class with the girl who was nervous about embarking on a relationship with the guy known to be promiscuous. That young woman told me she’d been moved by the exchange: “I’m like, ‘That is nasty to hook up with someone for one night.’ She was like, ‘Well, I don’t care, sometimes I don’t want a relationship.’ We were going back and forth, but then I had to respect her. Before I took this class, I probably would’ve thought she was a whore, but she knows what she wants. That’s not something I want, but it doesn’t make her wrong, it doesn’t make me wrong.”

    Above all else, what Vernacchio can do that his colleagues envy is to simply assume the pleasure of sex and directly address it with unharried ease. During one class, he handed out a worksheet with the five senses printed along the top and asked the students to try and list sexual activities that optimized each. (There were examples to prod their thinking: under hearing, for instance, was “listening to your partner read an erotic story.”) While Vernacchio knew the exercise would be a challenge for the kids — and he didn’t expect them to share their answers — its purpose was to open their minds to a broader sexuality.

    Regarding the statistic that Vernacchio alluded to earlier — that 70 percent of women do not orgasm through vaginal penetration alone — one boy exclaimed when we talked, “That shocked me, a lot.” The other boys also told me they’d been in the dark about the mysteries of female sexual satisfaction. “I think I sort of knew where the clitoris was, but I didn’t know it was, like, under something,” one said. Another declared, “It’s almost like a wake-up call.” He paused. “To not just please yourself.”

    The female students were nearly equally surprised. “I always thought, Is it weird that I don’t get an orgasm from, you know, just like vaginal penetration?” said a girl who’d had intercourse with one boy, though she’d had orgasms before that from being touched genitally. “It was comforting to hear that for most people it doesn’t happen. I mean, I’d heard it, but it was nice hearing it from Mr. V., who knows so much about it, and other people saying, ‘Yeah, yeah, that’s right.’ ”

    Not that information was always power for these young women. One girl said that while she could advise her boyfriend on how to increase her pleasure, she wouldn’t, because he’s “very insecure” about his lack of experience. Another estimated she’d had only two orgasms with her boyfriend of longstanding, each during intercourse, though she climaxes on her own through masturbation. Somehow, when she and her boyfriend “do anything, we just end up having sex,” she said, seeming both a little perplexed by the situation, and a little afraid to make waves.

    Who gives oral sex to whom is common fodder for Vernacchio’s gender-parity conversations. All but one of the students told me they’d had it, but sometimes only once or twice, and the vast majority within monogamous relationships.

    Although Vernacchio encourages students to think about fairness, he certainly doesn’t encourage a direct quid pro quo for oral sex — and the girls, the main givers, were not terribly enthused about being the recipients. “[My boyfriend] completely offered, and I did not want that,” one said. Another agreed: “It just creeps me out.” None were thrilled about performing it, either, and they seemed to be wrestling — in thought and deed — with why they continued to do so. “I do think girls like to take care of people,” the student-council V.P. mused, “and I know that just sounds horrible, like you should send me right back to the ’50s, but my mom is like the most liberal woman I know and still is so happy to make food for people. To some extent, women are just more people-pleasers than men.” One girl said she’d come up with “tricks” to make giving oral sex more enjoyable for her, and that she’d set “strict rules” for herself: “I only do it if they do something on me first, and it has to be below the belt.” And another said she doesn’t enjoy cunnilingus, but taking the personal is political to heart, she asked her boyfriend to do it anyway: if she was expected to service him orally, he should have to return the favor.

    All the boys said that Vernacchio had increased their sensitivity to the girls. One recounted how in an effort to consider his girlfriend’s feelings he’d asked her if she was willing to give him oral sex — none of that pushing her head down in the heat of the moment — and she’d considered it for an excruciating hour. Or maybe it just felt like that. “Do you have to think about it this long?” he finally pleaded. Eventually, she agreed.

    Pleasure in sex ed was a major topic last November at one of the largest sex-education conferences in the country, sponsored by the education arm of Planned Parenthood of Greater Northern New Jersey. “Porn is the model for today’s middle-school and high-school students,” Paul Joannides said in the keynote speech. “And none of us is offering an alternative that’s even remotely appealing.”

    Joannides, who is 58, made sex education his life’s work following the success of his sex manual for older teenagers and adults called, “The Guide to Getting It On.” Lauded for its voluminous accuracy and wit, the 900-plus-page paperback took him 15 years to research and write. Joannides argues that pornography can be used as a teaching tool, not a bogeyman, as is apparent in a short Web video he made called “5 Things to Learn About Lovemaking From Porn.” “In porn,” he affably lectures, “sex happens instantly: camera, action, crotch. . . . In real life, the willingness to ask and learn from your partner is often what separates the good lovers from those who are totally forgettable.” (Another of Joannides’s assertions is that the best way to reach heterosexual boys — who he believes are the most neglected in the current environment — is to play to their desire for “mastery,” because by middle school, they’ve thoroughly absorbed that to be a man is to be a stud.)

    One of sex educators’ big problems, Joannides told the New Jersey audience, is that they define their role as the “messengers of all the things that can go wrong with sex.” The attention paid to S.T.I.’s, pregnancy, rape and discrimination based on sexual orientation, while understandable, comes at a cost, he says. “We’re worrying about which bathrooms transgender students should use while teens are worrying whether they should shave all the way or leave a landing strip,” he said. “They’re worrying if someone special will find them sexually attractive, whether they will be able to do it as well as porn, whether others have the same kind of sexual feelings they do.”

    In other words, as much as Joannides criticizes his opponents on the right, he also tweaks the orthodoxies of his friends on the left, hoping to spur them to contemplate how they themselves dismiss pleasure. His main premise is that young people will tune out educators if their real concerns are left in the shadows. And practically speaking, pleasure is so braided through sex that if you can’t mention it, you miss chances to teach about safe sex in a way that young people can really use.

    For instance, in addition to pulling condoms over bananas — which has become a de rigueur contraception lesson among “liberal” educators — young people need to hear specifics about making the method work for them. “We don’t tell them: ‘Look, there are different shapes of condoms. Get sampler packs, experiment.’ That would be entering pleasure into the conversation, and we don’t want that.”

    While the conference attendees couldn’t have agreed more with Joannides about what should be taught in schools, much of the crowd thought he was deluded to imagine they could ever get away with it. Back in 1988, Michelle Fine, a professor of social psychology at the City University of New York, wrote an article in The Harvard Educational Review called “Sexuality, Schooling and Adolescent Females: The Missing Discourse of Desire.” In it, she included the comments of a teacher who discouraged community advocates from lobbying for change in the formal curriculum. If outsiders actually discovered the liberties some teachers take, Fine was told, they’d be shut down.

    More than two decades later, at the conference, an educator from Pennsylvania told me that one school asked her to teach a sex-ed class but forbade her to use the words “sex, ” “sexy” or “tampon.” (She declined.) A chipper young Unitarian sex educator from Brooklyn, Kirsten deFur, who led a workshop titled “Don’t Forget the Good Stuff,” gave tips on how her colleagues could avoid uttering the words “pleasure” and “orgasm.” “Ask open-ended questions about what feels good,” deFur recommended. And, she added, the P-word might even be acceptable in the proper context: “If you have healthy sex, it’ll be more pleasurable,” an instructor might dare to say.

    That more expansive sex education has to be done in code was something I came across repeatedly. A veteran advocate in the field gave me a short list of teachers to contact who might be willing to talk to me but then warned, “I don’t know if any of them are going to want to have what they’re doing out there.”

    “What if our kids really believed we wanted them to have great sex?” Vernacchio asked near the end of an evening talk he gave in January primarily for parents of ninth graders who would attend his sex-ed minicourse. “What if they really believed that we want them to be so passionately in love with someone that they can’t keep their hands off them? What if they really believed we want them to know their own bodies?”

    Vernacchio didn’t imagine that his audience, who gave him an enthusiastic ovation when his presentation ended, wanted their 14- and 15-year-olds to go out tomorrow and jump into bed or the backseat. Sex education, he and others point out, is one of the few classes where it’s not understood that young people are being prepared for the future.

    Sex, of course, can come with emotional confusion and pain, and be enmeshed with violence, which Michelle Fine knows well. She said that what all adolescents crave is a “safe space” to pull apart and ponder the stew of relationships and sexual activity — including intimacy and desire and betrayal and coercion.

    Vernacchio’s classroom is such a setting. Owing partly to his devotion to his job, partly to the individual relationships he starts developing with students in ninth grade as their English or sex-ed instructor or adviser, he looks out at a roomful of people whom he really knows, and who depend on him for discerning and generous counsel. This was especially true for the young woman who was raped — she told Vernacchio about the assault before anyone else at Friends’ — as well as the girl who was undone by her scorching on Facebook. She relied on Vernacchio all year for support, she said.

    For every single question that Vernacchio pulls out of his anonymous question box about female ejaculation, there are 10 like these: How do you handle your insecurities in a relationship? How do you stop worrying about being cheated on? How do you know when it’s time to break up? How do I talk to my partner about wanting to spend more time together without being annoying? Watching how closely the students attended to Vernacchio’s often lengthy answers was a moving reminder of how young 17- and 18-year-olds are.

    “As a society, we always tell kids, ‘Work hard, just focus on school, don’t think about girls or guys — you can worry about that stuff later, that stuff will work itself out,’ but the thing is, it doesn’t,” said a boy who had told me he had a disconcerting one-nighter with a girl he’d talked to only electronically. The class taught him to be more cautious about choosing the right time with the right person, he said, with a forcefulness that didn’t quite cover the hurt in his eyes. “You learn about the psychological after-effects that could happen to you.”

    The girl who was contemplating getting serious with a boy, but only if they could be exclusive, told me she finally figured out how to approach the guy after Vernacchio talked in class about the difference between “nagging” and asking for what you want. “I never thought of saying to him, ‘You know, just tell me if you’re having sex with someone else.’ I don’t want to pressure him, but I feel like it would make me comfortable.” This seems like pretty simple stuff, especially for someone who repeatedly called herself “strong,” but somehow it wasn’t until Vernacchio said that it was O.K. to make such forthright requests that she could conceive of it.

    “The campaign for abstinence in the schools and communities may seem trivial, an ideological nuisance,” Michelle Fine and Sara McClelland wrote in a 2006 study in The Harvard Educational Review, “but at its core it is . . . a betrayal of our next generation, which is desperately in need of knowledge, conversation and resources to negotiate the delicious and treacherous terrain of sexuality in the 21st century.”

    It’s axiomatic, however, that parents who support richer sex education don’t make the same ruckus with school officials as those who oppose it. “We need to be there at the school boards and say: ‘Guess where kids are getting their messages about sex from? They’re getting it from porn,’ ” Joannides exhorted. “All we’re talking about is just being able to acknowledge that sex is a good thing in the right circumstances, that it’s a normal thing.”

    Of course, sex isn’t all pleasure or all peril, it’s both (and sometimes both at once, though that lesson may have to wait for grad school). Vernacchio has a way of getting at its positive potential without ignoring the fact that, however good sex may feel, it’s sometimes best left off the menu. “So let’s think about pizza,” Vernacchio said to his students after they’d deconstructed baseball. The class for that day was just about over. “Why do you have pizza?”

    “You’re hungry,” a cross-country runner said.

    “Because you want to,” Vernacchio affirmed. “It starts with desire, an internal sense — not an external ‘I got a game today, I have to do it.’ And wouldn’t it be great if our sexual activity started with a real sense of wanting, whether your desire is for intimacy, pleasure or orgasms. . . . And you can be hungry for pizza and still decide, No thanks, I’m dieting. It’s not the healthiest thing for me now.

    “If you’re gonna have pizza with someone else, what do you have to do?” he continued. “You gotta talk about what you want. Even if you’re going to have the same pizza you always have, you say, ‘We getting the usual?’ Just a check in. And square, round, thick, thin, stuffed crust, pepperoni, stromboli, pineapple — none of those are wrong; variety in the pizza model doesn’t come with judgment,” Vernacchio hurried on. “So ideally when the pizza arrives, it smells good, looks good, it’s mouthwatering. Wouldn’t it be great if we had that kind of anticipation before sexual activity, if it stimulated all our senses, not just our genitals but this whole-body experience.” By this time, he was really moving fast; he’d had to cram his pizza metaphor into the last five minutes. “And what’s the goal of eating pizza? To be full, to be satisfied. That might be different for different people; it might be different for you on different occasions. Nobody’s like ‘You failed, you didn’t eat the whole pizza.’

    “So again, what if our goal, quote, unquote, wasn’t necessarily to finish the bases?” The students were gathering their papers, preparing to go. “What if it just was, ‘Wow, I feel like I had enough. That was really good.’ ”

    Laurie Abraham wrote “The Husbands and Wives Club: A Year in the Life of a Couples Therapy Group,” which began as an article in the magazine.

    Editor: Ilena Silverman

     

     

    Copyright. 2011. The New York Times Company. All Rights Reserved

  • Mark Webber won the Brazilian Grand Prix for the second time today, the seventh victory of his F1 ca

    This is the latest from the blog of James Allen, who I believe to be one of the very best observers of all things relating to Formula 1 Competition. The blog he publishes can be found at http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/. Check him out for a fresh, reliable and interesting perspective.
     
     
     
    Red Bull

    Mark Webber won the Brazilian Grand Prix for the second time today, the seventh victory of his F1 career, but crucially it was his first win of the season and it came about because of a rare technical problem for his team mate Sebastian Vettel. The World champion rolled in second having survived most of the race with a gearbox problem, which forced him to short shift in second and third gears and eventually to use only the higher gears. Jenson Button came through after an intense race long battle with Fernando Alonso to claim his 12th podium finish of More…

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    Darren Heath

    As Team Lotus embarks on its final F1 race before becoming Caterham F1 next season, team boss Tony Fernandes this morning laid out his vision for the team to a small group of media in the paddock at Interlagos. There were many details to do with the company being in four main divisions and some of the initiatives were eye catching. For example the future of technical director Mike Gascoyne. He and Fernandes see great potential in taking F1 composites and other technologies into aviation, an area where Fernandes has businesses (Air Asia and a share in Malaysian Airlines) and More…

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    Darren Heath

    The Force India team has three drivers on its books and has said that it will announce which two will be the race drivers on December 15th. There has been a lot of speculation about which of the three is to be disappointed, but in the press conference yesterday, Bob Fearnley the deputy team principal, said something very interesting, “I think it is only fair we deal, obviously, with the drivers. We have got three very talented drivers and we need to make sure that the one that is going to be disappointed has the best opportunity to position himself More…

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    Darren Heath

    World Champion Sebastian Vettel scored his 15th pole position of the season, setting a new record that beats the one set by Nigel Mansell which has stood for almost 20 years. It was Vettel’s 30th pole position in just 81 Grands Prix. It was a scintillating lap by Vettel, only a tenth faster than team mate Mark Webber, but a perfect summing up of the season in many ways, as the German put everything together in one lap. The Red Bull’s prowess in the middle sector was the decisive factor in keeping them ahead of the McLaren of Jenson Button, More…

     
     
    Darren Heath

    The final Grand Prix of 2011 is upon us and so far only seven drivers have stood on the podium this year, tying the record for the lowest number ever. They are Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, Vitaly Petrov and Nick Heidfeld. Amazingly neither of the Mercedes drivers have been up there and nor has Felipe Massa. Will that still be the case on Sunday or will one of those faces or a new face appear on the podium, especially is we get one of those rain affected Brazilian classics? And what does it say More…

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    Red Bull

    The first day of practice for Sunday’s Brazilian Grand Prix saw some close lap times between the two leading teams, Red Bull and McLaren, promising a tense battle for the final race of the season. McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton set the fastest time of the day, just over a tenth clear of Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel, but the long runs were interesting. The Red Bull was 8/10ths faster than the McLaren, but allowing for the difference in fuel loads, they were close. Red Bull tends to do its long runs using the fuel load it would typically start the second stint More…

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    Darren Heath

    The build up of technical staff at Team Lotus is set to take a new step with the arrival of leading aerodynamicist John Iley from McLaren. The move has yet to be announced by Team Lotus, but it is believed that Iley has left McLaren and is on gardening leave until joining what will then be called Caterham F1 Team in June 2012. Iley is another in a series of leading names who have worked before with Mike Gascoyne and have decided to join him at Team Lotus. He joins ex Red Bull technical director Mark Smith and ex Renault More…

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    James Allen on F1 – The official James Allen website on F1 | Formula 1 / F1

    This is the last F1 race before Sky come into the sport and start their blanket pay TV coverage which will run until at least 2018. It will be a big change in the way F1 fans in the UK watch the sport. Meanwhile BBC has released details of the 10 races it will cover live. Sky wants to appeal to F1 fans, giving existing subscribers another reason to continue paying, avoiding the dreaded “churn” as it is called when subscribers cancel. And it hopes to attract at least 150,000 new subscribers, which would be roughly the break-even point against More…

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    Darren Heath

    Lewis Hamilton looked on good form today in the paddock at Interlagos as he spoke openly about his ups and downs in 2011 and drew the conclusion that although it’s been a painful year, he has grown as a driver and his three wins, including at the last race in Abu Dhabi, were a great satisfaction. He will be going all out for a fourth on Sunday. “It’s been a year of growth, which was one of the most positive things I have learned this year,” he said. “It really has been. What I’ve learned this year I’ll take into More…

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    Darren Heath

    We’ve very proud that this year here on JA on F1 we’ve given many fans a chance to get closer to the sport, sending 14 fans to Grands Prix, one fan to Abu Dhabi, we’ve put two fans on a real F1 simulator and we’ve had lots of other great prizes for competitions. Our friends at Santander, with whom we did the FOTA Fans Forum in June, have given us a few nice things to celebrate the end of a great season of F1 – a VIP trip for two people to the McLaren factory (known as the McLaren Technology More…

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  • Pre-Brazil analysis – Vettel intent on Interlagos success25 Nov 2011

     

    Sebastian Vettel (GER) Red Bull Racing at a team photograph. Formula One World Championship, Rd 19, Brazilian Grand Prix, Preparations, Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Thursday, 24 November 2011Sebastian Vettel (GER) Red Bull Racing signs autographs. Formula One World Championship, Rd 19, Brazilian Grand Prix, Preparations, Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Thursday, 24 November 2011Sebastian Vettel (GER) Red Bull Racing at a team photograph. Formula One World Championship, Rd 19, Brazilian Grand Prix, Preparations, Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Thursday, 24 November 2011The Senna S. Formula One World Championship, Rd 19, Brazilian Grand Prix, Preparations, Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Thursday, 24 November 2011The circuit. Formula One World Championship, Rd 19, Brazilian Grand Prix, Preparations, Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Thursday, 24 November 2011

    Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel will be going for another little bit of history in Interlagos this weekend. He currently shares with Nigel Mansell, who achieved the feat in the 16-race 1992 season, the all-time record of 14 pole positions in a single season and is intent on going one better after matching the Englishman in Abu Dhabi.

    The double champion said at Interlagos on Thursday that he is pleased his tyre failure in Abu Dhabi was not the result of driver error, but that the precise cause of it is still unknown.

    “I think we will never find out 100 per cent what happened. But I think it’s important to understand I didn’t do anything wrong,” he told reporters. “We will never find out what happened in the last race, but we didn’t run over any debris. There wasn’t anything I could have done differently. I don’t like the word luck, but there wasn’t anything I could have done differently to prevent the problem.

    “Straight after the race I walked the track myself and I couldn’t find anything. There were not any problems in Turn One. There were a lot of drivers using different lines. Pirelli haven’t found anything wrong in particular. And that was important.”

    Vettel said that even though Red Bull had tried to recreate the situation in the subsequent young drivers test with Jean-Eric Vergne, no further conclusions could be drawn.

    “I had no chance to catch the car due to sudden deflation and that was that,” he concluded. “We obviously tested and replicated what happened, without the same result, but we have worked hard with Pirelli to try and understand it. It’s difficult to have a clear answer.”

    The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace was built on uneven ground and features several changes of elevation. It is unusual in running anti-clockwise, has 15 corners, 10 left and five right, and a mixture of fast straights, high-speed corners and slow hairpins. It’s a relatively high downforce track which tests engines but is easy on brakes, and is notoriously bumpy.

    “A great circuit and great atmosphere – the fans here are wild and it’s always a sell-out, so the atmosphere is always pretty special,” says race director Charlie Whiting. “There will be one DRS zone on the back straight. We think this will be enough, as the main straight usually gives a good enough opportunity to overtake anyway, so we don’t want to make it too easy.”

    There have been only minor changes to the circuit this year but the plans for 2012 call for a new pit entry and a bigger run-off area in the final corner. “This is a big job that will require removing a couple of permanent grandstands,” Whiting says. “But we’ve had assurances from the city of Sao Paulo that they’ll support this project.”

    For tickets and travel to 2011/12 Formula One races, click here.
    For Formula One and F1 team merchandise, click here.

     

    Copyright. 2011. Formula1.com All Rights Reserved

  • Dear Costume Department: ‘My Week with Marilyn’

     

     

    by Of a Kind. Posted on 4:30 pm Monday Nov 14, 2011

    1

    Editor’s note: Welcome to Dear Costume Department, a new bi-weekly feature brought to you by our fashion-minded friends from Of a Kind, a curated shopping site of limited-edition goods by emerging designers. With each installment, they’ll bring you a head-to-toe look inspired by a buzzed-about pop culture personality — complete with info on where to grab the pieces for your own closet. Enjoy!

    Michelle Williams has some big (high?) shoes to fill when her new film My Week with Marilyn hits theaters later this month — there’s the walk, the voice, the hair. And so does the person dressing her, whose job it is to achieve Marilyn circa 1956 — post-The Seven-Year Itch and pre-Some Like It Hot. The requisite balance between subtlety and sensuality… well, here’s how we’d do it.

    These sunglasses from Super are ridiculously classic and ultra-dark — to hide all those feelings.

    Paler than your average trench, this Charles Anatase coat seems so ladylike, especially with the belt really hugging that hourglass.

    These peep toe pumps are just the sort of sensible heels — from the house line of one of LA’s hottest stores, Tenoversix — that draw all eyes to a lady’s stems.

    That bleached-to-hell hair requires all the protection it can get, and this gauzy cashmere scarf by Theodora & Callum is ideal for facing flashbulbs or for riding in cars with boys while your husband is away. Oops.

    It takes next to nothing to attract attention, so why bother with adornment and color? The only thing this silk 3.1 Phillip Lim dress screams is “heartbreaker.”

     

    Tags: 

  • Increase Your Dating Success with Statistics

     
    BY ADAM DACHIS
     

    NOV 14, 2011 8:00 AM

    64,002  142


    Increase Your Dating Success with Statistics

    Dating isn’t easy and love isn’t a science, but the judicious application of statistics to your dating life may make the difference between a Saturday night alone and a fun night out. Here’s a look at a few dating trends, studies, and statistics that may help improve your love life, both on and offline.

    I’ve spent the last year or so going on a dates that went poorly for a variety of different reasons. That led to a lot of frustration, so I started to keep track of my own behavior in order to figure out what, if anything, I was doing wrong. I also looked for statistics and studies that offered advice about compatibility, how people approach various dating situations, what expectations I should have, and so on. With the help of popular dating site OKCupid‘s blog, Psychology Today, and a few other helpful sources, I was able to learn quite a bit about navigating the dating world. This post is an in-depth look at how that information helped me and may be able to help you, too.

    While there are many positive things you can take away from a scientific look at love, it’s important that you remember that people are unique and not easily defined by statistics. If a statistic suggests a person who loves zucchini will also hate every cat owner she meets (note: this is not true at all), you don’t want to spend your life running away every time a date has a photo of a kitty in his or her wallet. Statistics and studies can be fascinating, illuminating, and helpful, but it’s easy to take them too far. Use the information in this post to help you figure out new and better approaches to dating while avoiding judgments and assumptions on and about the people you meet. You may love zucchini, but that doesn’t make every cat lover evil. Keep that in mind as you read.

    Online: What to Do Before the Date

    How to Make First Contact

     

    When you’re dating online, most interactions begin in the same way: a message. This can be a little daunting because you want to say the right thing, avoid saying too much or too little, and do whatever you can to get a reply. OKCupid did a little analysis of which first messages receive the most replies and what they have in common. First, write well and avoid netspeak like “ur” and “wat.” Second, avoid missing apostrophes and simple misspellings. Third, avoid physical compliments. They tend to receive lower reply rates, and those low reply rates plummet as the compliments become more extreme. What you want to do is bring up a person’s specific interests and appear to be different from the average guy or girl. You also want to keep it to just a few sentences (and sometimes even shorter). While your messages will vary depending on the specifics of the individual you’re contacting, here’s an example:

     

    How’s it going? Maybe this is a weird question, but have you ever been to Din Tai Fung? Your profile said you love dumplings and that place has the best dumplings I’ve ever had. Anyway, you seem cool and I think we’d get along. Say hi if you’re interested.

    The information you pick should be something that stands out as something important to your prospective date and it should be a sincere common interest. If they say they’re “obsessed with dumplings” that makes it a good choice. If they simply list it as something they like, it’s probably not that important. The goal is to find something you’re both excited about and make that the focus of your first contact.

    It can also help to get the conversation moving on the first message, so you may want to add a question if it isn’t already part of the message (like the example above). You can ask something based on what you’ve already said, or even something more generic (e.g. “How’s your week going?”). In most cases, you won’t win a person over in the first message so you want to keep the conversation going for a few messages to see if you both want to go out on a date.

    Set Expectations for Yourself and Your Prospective Dates

    In any situation, dating or otherwise, it helps to be realistic. When you’re talking to someone new it’s always helpful to uncover any potentially major problems so they’re not a point of tension later. For example, if you’re a devout Catholic you might want to share that information with a certain atheist who’s got you hot and bothered. You don’t want to share everything right at the start, of course, but if you’re already anticipating friction because of a specific difference it’ll help to know how you’re going to handle it. If your wall is plastered with Obama posters, you don’t want to find out your date has a wallet full of Sarah Palin photos in the middle of dinner. Even if you have opposing political views and interests, you may get along swimmingly. Rather than judge outright, you want to know your actual deal breakers and keep an open mind about everything else.

    Discover Your Major Deal Breakers

    Increase Your Dating Success with StatisticsWe all have a list of major deal breakers, and it’s a good thing to figure out if any of those deal breakers are present in a guy or girl you like before you go out on a date. But—and this is a very important but—you need to be reasonable. As sex advice columnist Dan Savage puts it, if you’ve got a list of deal breakers that has more than five things on ityou are the problem. Your deal breaker list should look something like this:

    1. Heavy drug use
    2. Has no ambition
    3. Still in love with ex-boy or girlfriend from a decade ago
    4. Says “I love you” on the first date
    5. Owns more than two cats (you know, if you hate cats and have a pet hair allergy)

    It should not look like this:

    1. Chews with mouth open
    2. Leaves mayonnaise out on the counter
    3. Has opposing political views
    4. Is shorter/taller than me
    5. Doesn’t think Titanic is the best movie, like, ever!!

    You might be surprised by how easy it can be to get over the things that you think make a person completely unappealing. You have to make sure you don’t rule anyone out because they occasionally forget to turn of the oven or have been known to enjoy pornography. That said, you don’t want to waste your time going out with someone who isn’t compatible. One of the benefits of online dating is that you can exchange a few messages and ask these sorts of questions. You don’t want to ask “So I was wondering…are you a heavy drug user?” but rather bring up the topic so it can be discussed. Perhaps you’re talking about your weekend and you went to a party where you had to leave early because you hate the smell of marijuana. Or perhaps you stayed for hours because of the same reason. Whatever the case may be, try to slip into these topics naturally. Not only will you find deal breakers, but you’ll also learn a lot more about a person than you would from just asking “hey, what’s up?”

     

    Expect Lies

    Increase Your Dating Success with StatisticsAccording to OKCupid’s statistics, people lie. This is probably not a shock to anyone, even if you’re pretty honest yourself, but it’s good to know what most people lie about so you’re not too offended when you learn the truth.

    Both men and women commonly lie about height, reporting to be around two inches taller on average about 10-15% of the time. Both sexes also inflate their income. As a general practice you can assume they make 20% less than what they boast, and the likelihood of an inflating income grows with age. Finally, when you see a particularly attractive picture, chances are it’s fairly old. Most of the photos OKCupid users considered “hot” were from a year in the past (or more). While lying is definitely off-putting, and not recommended, these are the kinds of little things you can forgive. Everyone is trying to put their best foot forward, and some people will want to appear as though that foot walks in an expensive shoe and is attached to a slightly longer leg. If you expect these little lies, finding out the truth won’t be unsettling and the deception will be easier to forgive.

     

    Offline: How to Handle the First Date

    Good Questions and Topics of Conversation for a First Date

    Anyone who has ever been on a handful of dates in their lifetime will happily advise you on what you should and shouldn’t say on a date. In reality, what is and isn’t off limits relies pretty heavily on the person you’re with. Figuring this out often means listening carefully and reading your date’s body language for relevant signals, but there are a few surprising topics you can discuss in order to learn a lot about the person you’re with.

    The Three Unusual Questions with Revealing Answers

    Increase Your Dating Success with StatisticsOne thing dating site OKCupid does to help its users get to know people better is allow them to answer user-submitted questions and submit their own. With millions of answers, they found that an answer to a simple and shallow question can reveal the answer to something a bit more personal. For example, they found that women who answered “yes” to whether or not they liked the taste of beer also frequently answered “yes” to whether or not they’d have sex on the first date. (The likelihood as about 60%.) But if you’re looking for a relationship, three questions stood out as the right ones to ask on a first date:

    • Do you like horror movies?
    • Have you ever traveled around another country alone?
    • Wouldn’t it be fun to chuck it all and go live on a sailboat?

    When couples agreed on one or more of these questions, it generally foretold a successful relationship. OKCupid figured this out byanalyzing 34,260 real-world couples who deleted their accounts because they met someone via the site and didn’t need it anymore. Of the 34,260 couples, 32% agreed on the answer to all three questions. While disagreement should not be a reason to rule out a potential mate, similar answers are at least cause for a little optimism.

     

    Be a Storyteller

    Increase Your Dating Success with StatisticsWhile the specifics of first date conversations might be unique, the topics generally are not.AskMeniVillage, and eHarmony all suggest topics and questions that make for good conversation on a first date and there’s a lot of overlap. Common topics include family and friends, pop culture, life goals, hobbies and free-time activities, and personal tastes (e.g. movies, music, etc.). While these are all good things to discuss, a date can turn into a two-way interview if you’re simply exchanging information. Since you know which topics will inevitably come up, it’s good to have a few entertaining stories at the ready. Sharing more about yourself and being a little vulnerable can 1) make your date more comfortable, and 2) move you out of interview mode and into a good, authentic conversation.

    Obviously the stories you choose are going to depend on your experiences but I’ve found that the best ones are the kind your friends enjoy and that you enjoy telling. If you know they get a good response from people you like and you’re charismatic in your delivery you can make the safe assumption that they’ll play well on a date. If they’re funny, that’s always a bonus as well.

    One thing you want to remember is that virtually no topic is off-limits. For example, I’ve sometimes told the story of how I ended up being a cameraman for a porno. Out of context this seems like a bad topic for a first date, but it’s an interesting story under the right circumstances. If you’re comfortable with what appears to be embarrassing information on the surface, most of the time your date will be comfortable too. Use your best judgment. Revealing yourself can be beneficial under the right circumstances, so don’t hold back when you have something fun and interesting to share.

    Photo by Aerolite.

     

    Present the Most Attractive—and Honest—Version of Yourself

     

    We like to present ourselves in the most attractive light, but sometimes that light can be a little too flattering and unrealistic. Photoshopped faces, poorly lit photographs, and portraits with sunglasses and hats blocking out most of a person’s features are all common on dating web sites. These types of images may make you look good, but they’re frustrating to others. Despite what we tend to think, there are actually two things that statistically make you more attractive to others: the parts of you that you probably consider ugly and just a small amount of effort in the areas of presentation and fitness.

     

    Just Take Care of Yourself

    Dr. Jeremy Nicholson, writing forPsychology Today, found a 1997 study that surveyed university students to discover what they actually found attractive about one another:

    [B]y far, the most attractive features fell under the category of “self care”. These features were changeable aspects like good grooming, neat hair, nice fitting and quality clothing, good posture, and healthy weight. Essentially, the most attractive features about a person (male or female) is that they put forth some effort to shower, groom, select some nice clothes, stand up straight, and manage their diet a bit. No plastic surgery, major gym time, or extensive overhauling required.

    Rather than worrying about the things you can’t change, you’re far better off spending time worrying about what you can. In fact, it appears you don’t need to spend much time at all.

    Photo by Judy Reinan.

    Don’t Hide What You Consider Ugly

     

    When it comes to the things you can change, like your huge nose or your fat lips, you may actually have an advantage—at least if you’re a woman. OKCupid discovered that, statistically, when men disagree whether or not a woman is hot it works in her favor. Disagreements tend to happen over women who have unique features like that large nose. Tattoos and piercings also make a difference as well. The takeaway here is that if there’s something unique about you, feature it rather than try to hide it. Aside from it being a statistical benefit, you want someone to be honestly attracted to you from the get-go. Honest attraction is always going to yield better results, so don’t worry about what you think makes you look bad.

     

    Photo by Do2Learn.

    And Yes, Be Yourself

    While statistics, studies, and trends can guide you towards making better choices in dating, they all ultimately point to one thing: just be yourself. It’s a cliché for a reason. It’s good to be honest and genuine about who you are. The trick is simply identifying what parts you share first and what you save for later. There’s no scientific formula that’s going to make dating easy, but by keeping an eye on your behavior and the behavior of others you can learn how to handle it all a little bit better.

     

     

    Copyright. 2011. Lifehacker.com All Rights Reserved


    You can follow Adam Dachis, the author of this post, on TwitterGoogle+, and Facebook. Twitter’s the best way to contact him, too.

  • Libyan Fighters Catch Qaddafi’s Last Fugitive Son

    Ismail Zitouni/Reuters

    Saif al-Islam Qaddafi on a plane after his capture on Saturday.

     

    November 19, 2011
     

    Libyan Fighters Catch Qaddafi’s Last Fugitive Son

    By  and 

    ZINTAN, Libya — Libyan militia fighters on Saturday captured Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, the last fugitive son and onetime heir apparent of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, setting off nationwide celebrations but also exposing a potential power struggle between former-rebel factions over his handling.

    Militia leaders based in Zintan, a western mountain town and stronghold of resistance to Colonel Qaddafi’s regime, said they captured Seif al-Islam early Saturday in the southwestern desert near Awbari, along with a small entourage.

    But while transitional government leaders in the capital, Tripoli, promised that Mr. Qaddafi would be closely guarded and turned over to the International Criminal Court to be tried on war crimes charges, leaders in Zintan insisted that they would not hand him over until a formal national government was formed — a process that is in the works but at least a day or two away.

    Such insistence on factional power is at the heart of international concerns about Libya’s future. And after Colonel Qaddafi’s capture and killing at the hands of militiamen a month ago, his son’s case will be an important test of Libya’s commitment to the rule of law.

    On Saturday, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court said he would head to Libya in the next few days to discuss how and where Mr. Qaddafi would be tried. “We are coordinating with the Justice Ministry to ensure that any solution is in accordance with the law,” said the prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo. 

    Leaders in Zintan promised that they would protect Mr. Qaddafi and that justice would take its course.

    “We are arranging a very safe place for him,” said Mussa Grife, a member of the Zintan revolutionary movement’s political committee. “The people of Zintan want to leave a good impression for the world and treat Seif according to human rights and according to Islamic values.”

    Tellingly, the Transitional National Council’s prime minister, Abdel Rahim el-Keeb, came to Zintan with an entourage of officials to celebrate the capture. “Congratulations to all Libya, all men, women and children,” he said at a news conference here. “Now we can build a new Libya.”

    Mr. Keeb emphasized that the government in Tripoli was in no rush to take direct custody of Mr. Qaddafi and that it would accept Zintan’s demands to hold him.

    “We trust their ability to take care of this,” he said. “They will keep him in peace, and take care of him, unlike how he treated our people.”

    In scenes of celebration outstripped only by news of Colonel Qaddafi’s capture and death last month, Tripoli’s streets erupted in revelry at the news that Mr. Qaddafi had been seized. Vehicles clogged intersections, horns blaring, and militiamen shot their rifles into the sky. In Zintan, thousands of people poured into the streets amid a carnival of fireworks and gunfire.

    The capture eliminates perhaps the best hope that loyalists had of rallying a new revolution around the remnants of the Qaddafi family. It also represents a personal transformation that turned Seif al-Islam from the most prominent advocate of changing his father’s Libya into one of the chief architects of the regime’s deadly crackdown on dissent in its final days.

    Mr. Grife said Zintan fighters had been following Mr. Qaddafi through the desert using local sources for intelligence about his whereabouts in the past few weeks. When they learned he and a small entourage would try to make a break to leave the country, perhaps bound for Tunisia, they laid a trap for him on Saturday morning along a valley road outside Awbari, an oasis town.

    When Zintan fighters blocked the caravan, Mr. Qaddafi broke from his vehicle and was captured on foot. “They tried to fight,” Mr. Grife said. A few shots were fired, but there were no reports of any wounded.

    A reporter for Reuters was on the plane with Seif al-Islam as the fighters flew him from Awbari to Zintan. The reporter said that although Mr. Qaddafi appeared very frightened, he was in decent condition. He wore an uncharacteristically heavy beard, and showed the reporter his heavily bandaged right hand, which he said was wounded in a NATO airstrike about a month ago.

    As Mr. Qaddafi was driven from the Zintan airport to an undisclosed place for detention, residents who had gathered to see him threw shoes and sandals at the vehicle, a sign of extreme contempt in the Muslim world.

    For years, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi cultivated an image at home and abroad as the face of change in Libya. An international playboy in his youth, he went on to earn a doctoral degree at the London School of Economics. He wrote a thesis on the importance of democracy and civil society groups, although accusations later emerged that it had beenghostwritten by consultants working for his father’s government.

    He publicly championed the cause of modernizing and liberalizing Libya, including loosening the tight restrictions on political speech his father had maintained for decades, opening up free enterprise and adopting a constitution.

    In the staged drama that passed for public political life under Colonel Qaddafi, Seif al-Islam, who is 39, was often portrayed as standing up to an authoritarian old guard around his father, who seemed to push back against his ideas. Some Libyans who dreamed of a freer future pinned their hopes on him and the young clique he led.

    Western consultants say Seif al-Islam managed to parlay partial control of Libya’s oil assets and investments to help induce Western businesses and governments to ease Libya’s isolation under his father.

    His success helped him emerge as the pre-eminent son and heir apparent among Colonel Qaddafi’s many children, although his brother Muatassim, his father’s national security adviser, was always considered a rival.

    But when the revolt against Colonel Qaddafi broke out in late February — taking over the eastern city of Benghazi and for a few days the streets of Tripoli as well — it was Seif al-Islam who delivered the Qaddafi government’s first public response, warning in a long and rambling speech that the government would crush the “rats” who challenged his father’s rule.

    Libya, he said, would slide into civil war. To opponents of the Qaddafi government, the son now sounded very much like his father.

    During the rebellion and NATO bombing campaign against the Qaddafi government, Seif al-Islam was said to propose to the Western governments a truce centered on the idea that he would lead a transition to electoral democracy. But in public interviews he always insisted that his father should retain a figurehead role, which he sometimes compared to that of the queen of England, and the Western powers never bit.

    In his last interview — in early August, less than three weeks before he fled as rebels took Tripoli — Seif al-Islam appeared a changed man, nervous and agitated, wearing a newly grown beard and fingering prayer beads. He had always been a religious Muslim, he said, though his previous image was decidedly secular.

    Casting aside any pretense of negotiating peace with the Western-supported rebel leadership, Mr. Qaddafi said in the interview that his father’s government was negotiating a secret deal with a faction of Islamists among the rebels. Together, he said, Qaddafi loyalists and Islamists would turn on the liberals among the rebels, who would be killed or driven into exile, and Libya would become an Islamic state relying on the Koran instead of a constitution. “Libya will look like Saudi Arabia, like Iran. So what?”

    He added, chuckling, “It is a funny story.”

    Libyan Islamists denied the report immediately. Officials of his father’s government denied it the next day. And at least one person close to the Qaddafi family later said that Mr. Qaddafi appeared to be losing his grip.

    Clifford Krauss reported from Tripoli, and David D. Kirkpatrick from Cairo. Marlise Simons contributed reporting from Paris.

     

     

    Copyright. 2011. The New York Times Company. All Rights Reserved

     

     

  • F1 chief: Austin race ‘an uphill struggle’

    Updated: November 12, 2011, 12:46 PM ET

    F1 chief: Austin race ‘an uphill struggle’

    Associated Press

    ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — The head of Formula One expressed doubts on Saturday over whether the 2012 United States Grand Prix in Austin, Texas, will go ahead as scheduled.

    F1 is due to return to the U.S. after a five-year absence. Indianapolis last hosted a race in 2007. Before that, Phoenix hosted three GPs from 1989 to 1991, and Watkins Glen in upstate New York hosted from 1961 to 1980.

    Asked about the November race’s prospects, F1 chief Bernie Ecclestone said: “I don’t know. We’re trying. It’s a bit of an uphill struggle there at the moment.

     

    EcclestoneThere are two parties, one is building a track, the other has the contract and they’ve forgotten to talk to each other.

    – Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone

     

    “There are two parties, one is building a track, the other has the contract and they’ve forgotten to talk to each other.”

    Red McCombs, former owner of the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Vikings, and one of the chief financial backers of the race in Austin, said last month the U.S. should be able to support two races after the five-year drought.

    Ecclestone said there were “no problems” with the grand prix scheduled in New Jersey in 2013.

    Among other calendar issues, he said next year’s Bahrain GP will definitely go ahead despite ongoing trouble in the country, and he would like to see the Turkish GP return to the schedule.

    The World Motor Sport Council endorsed a calendar that schedules the Bahrain race for April. But there remain concerns among some teams about safety after it was canceled this year due to anti-government protests.

    Flanked by Bahrain’s crown prince, Ecclestone said he “looked forward to being back” in the Gulf state.

    “Everybody is content. No dramas,” he said. “We wouldn’t have put it in the calendar otherwise. It was only because we knew we would be there.”

    A government crackdown ended mass protests months ago but Sunni-ruled Bahrain’s security forces still clash almost daily with Shiite protesters demanding greater rights. More than 30 people have been reported killed in eight months of protests.

    Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa said he was “very” confident the race would be held as scheduled, saying it has widespread support in the Gulf country and is symbolic of what Bahrain is all about.

    “It is seen as a prime symbol of moderation in the country; anyone with a moderate agenda, global agenda knows that race is what ties Bahrain to the world,” the crown prince said. “Extremists on either side might disagree. But the majority of people, especially those that love their country and want to be part of the world, support it.”

    The crown prince said he was hopeful a report due out Nov. 23 by an international commission investigating the protests and subsequent crackdown will ease the concerns of F1 teams.

    The Turkish GP was dropped from next year’s list amid complaints from local organizers over the cost of staging the race.

    Turkey joined the F1 calendar in 2005 but the race attracted poor attendance due to high ticket prices and the difficulty of access to the venue on Istanbul’s Asian side.

    Istanbul’s six-year contract expires this year. Many drivers have said they want to go back as they enjoy the testing circuit, with its mammoth Turn Eight, the longest of the season at roughly 700 yards.

    “I didn’t want to lose it. We are trying with the government to see if we can’t resurrect it,” Ecclestone said, adding that it was unlikely to be held next year. “I doubt it, but you never know. We’ll do our best.”

    Copyright 2011 by The Associated Press

  • Open Letter to Chancellor Linda P.B. Katehi of UC Davis. Regarding the Protests and the Brutality fr

    Open Letter to Chancellor Linda P.B. Katehi

    Posted on November 19, 2011 by 

    18 November 2011

    Open Letter to Chancellor Linda P.B. Katehi

    Linda P.B. Katehi,

    I am a junior faculty member at UC Davis. I am an Assistant Professor in the Department of English, and I teach in the Program in Critical Theory and in Science & Technology Studies. I have a strong record of research, teaching, and service. I am currently a Board Member of the Davis Faculty Association. I have also taken an active role in supporting the student movement to defend public education on our campus and throughout the UC system. In a word: I am the sort of young faculty member, like many of my colleagues, this campus needs. I am an asset to the University of California at Davis.

    You are not.

    I write to you and to my colleagues for three reasons:

    1) to express my outrage at the police brutality which occurred against students engaged in peaceful protest on the UC Davis campus today

    2) to hold you accountable for this police brutality

    3) to demand your immediate resignation

    Today you ordered police onto our campus to clear student protesters from the quad. These were protesters who participated in a rally speaking out against tuition increases and police brutality on UC campuses on Tuesday—a rally that I organized, and which was endorsed by the Davis Faculty Association. These students attended that rally in response to a call for solidarity from students and faculty who were bludgeoned with batons,hospitalized, and arrested at UC Berkeley last week. In the highest tradition of non-violent civil disobedience, those protesters had linked arms and held their ground in defense of tents they set up beside Sproul Hall. In a gesture of solidarity with those students and faculty, and in solidarity with the national Occupy movement, students at UC Davis set up tents on the main quad. When you ordered police outfitted with riot helmets, brandishing batons and teargas guns to remove their tents today, those students sat down on the ground in a circle and linked arms to protect them.

    What happened next?

    Without any provocation whatsoever, other than the bodies of these students sitting where they were on the ground, with their arms linked, police pepper-sprayed students. Students remained on the ground, now writhing in pain, with their arms linked.

    What happened next?

    Police used batons to try to push the students apart. Those they could separate, they arrested, kneeling on their bodies and pushing their heads into the ground. Those they could not separate, they pepper-sprayed directly in the face, holding these students as they did so. When students covered their eyes with their clothing, police forced open their mouths and pepper-sprayed down their throats. Several of these students were hospitalized. Others are seriously injured. One of them, forty-five minutes after being pepper-sprayed down his throat, was still coughing up blood.

    This is what happened. You are responsible for it.

    You are responsible for it because this is what happens when UC Chancellors order police onto our campuses to disperse peaceful protesters through the use of force: students get hurt. Faculty get hurt. One of the most inspiring things (inspiring for those of us who care about students who assert their rights to free speech and peaceful assembly) about the demonstration in Berkeley on November 9 is that UC Berkeley faculty stood together with students, their arms linked together. Associate Professor of English Celeste Langan was grabbed by her hair, thrown on the ground, and arrested. Associate Professor Geoffrey O’Brien was injured by baton blows. Professor Robert Hass, former Poet Laureate of the United States, National Book Award and Pulitzer Prize winner, was also struck with a baton. These faculty stood together with students in solidarity, and they too were beaten and arrested by the police. In writing this letter, I stand together with those faculty and with the students they supported.

    One week after this happened at UC Berkeley, you ordered police to clear tents from the quad at UC Davis. When students responded in the same way—linking arms and holding their ground—police also responded in the same way: with violent force. The fact is: the administration of UC campuses systematically uses police brutality to terrorize students and faculty, to crush political dissent on our campuses, and to suppress free speech and peaceful assembly. Many people know this. Many more people are learning it very quickly.

    You are responsible for the police violence directed against students on the UC Davis quad on November 18, 2011. As I said, I am writing to hold you responsible and to demand your immediate resignation on these grounds.

    On Wednesday November 16, you issued a letter by email to the campus community. In this letter, you discussed a hate crime which occurred at UC Davis on Sunday November 13. In this letter, you express concern about the safety of our students. You write, “it is particularly disturbing that such an act of intolerance should occur at a time when the campus community is working to create a safe and inviting space for all our students.” You write, “while these are turbulent economic times, as a campus community, we must all be committed to a safe, welcoming environment that advances our efforts to diversity and excellence at UC Davis.”

    I will leave it to my colleagues and every reader of this letter to decide what poses a greater threat to “a safe and inviting space for all our students” or “a safe, welcoming environment” at UC Davis: 1) Setting up tents on the quad in solidarity with faculty and students brutalized by police at UC Berkeley? or 2) Sending in riot police to disperse students with batons, pepper-spray, and tear-gas guns, while those students sit peacefully on the ground with their arms linked? Is this what you have in mind when you refer to creating “a safe and inviting space?” Is this what you have in mind when you express commitment to “a safe, welcoming environment?”

    I am writing to tell you in no uncertain terms that there must be space for protest on our campus. There must be space for political dissent on our campus. There must be space for civil disobedience on our campus. There must be space for students to assert their right to decide on the form of their protest, their dissent, and their civil disobedience—including the simple act of setting up tents in solidarity with other students who have done so. There must be space for protest and dissent, especially, when the object of protest and dissent is police brutality itself. You may not order police to forcefully disperse student protesters peacefully protesting police brutality. You may not do so. It is not an option available to you as the Chancellor of a UC campus. That is why I am calling for your immediate resignation.

    Your words express concern for the safety of our students. Your actions express no concern whatsoever for the safety of our students. I deduce from this discrepancy that you are not, in fact, concerned about the safety of our students. Your actions directly threaten the safety of our students. And I want you to know that this is clear. It is clear to anyone who reads your campus emails concerning our “Principles of Community” and who also takes the time to inform themselves about your actions. You should bear in mind that when you send emails to the UC Davis community, you address a body of faculty and students who are well trained to see through rhetoric that evinces care for students while implicitly threatening them. I see through your rhetoric very clearly. You also write to a campus community that knows how to speak truth to power. That is what I am doing.

    I call for your resignation because you are unfit to do your job. You are unfit to ensure the safety of students at UC Davis. In fact: you are the primary threat to the safety of students at UC Davis. As such, I call upon you to resign immediately.

    Sincerely,

    Nathan Brown
    Assistant Professor
    Department of English
    Program in Critical Theory
    University of California at Davis

     

    Copyright. 2011.UCDavis Bicycle Barricade@WordPress.com

  • The Controversy Concerning the Origins of Facebook.

    The Code of the Winklevii

    Remember the Winklevoss twins? The golden-boy Harvard rowers who claimed that Mark Zuckerberg had stolen the idea for Facebook from them? They spent years suing him, won a settlement that is currently worth about $200 million, and now feel it should have been four times that. Joining the brothers on an impromptu road trip to Mexico, Dana Vachon learns what is still driving their pursuit of Zuckerberg (it’s about justice . . . no, money . . . no, vindication), and discovers that some guys really, really, really don’t like to lose.

     Dana Vachon  Sam Jones

    SEEING DOUBLE Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, photographed in Chula Vista, California. “Nobody’s talking about actions,” Tyler says. “Everybody’s talking about the kinda guys involved.”

    One day in June, the better part of the U.S. Olympic rowing program flew to London for the Henley Royal Regatta in a sudden alpha-male rapture that left behind only the very young, the injured—and Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

    The identical twins believe that they are the rightful founders of Facebook, and in seven years of litigating to this effect have fused America’s fascinations with courtroom drama, Wasp culture, and genetic novelty to make themselves an object of cultural wonder, the Winklevii, multi-media contortionists who might feud with a former Treasury secretary (Larry Summers, while president of Harvard, declined their request to punish the undergraduate Mark Zuckerberg and recently called them assholes in a public forum), then join with Snooki, a fellow late-imperial oddity, in the pitching of pistachios online, before appearing as a $1,600 question on Jeopardy!(“Last name of twins seen here? They put their oars in the water for Oxford as well as Harvard . . . ”)—all in the same six-month period.

    The brothers sat in sloppy lotus positions beneath a network of domed surveillance cameras, in a plastic-polymer Quonset hut in the scrubby desert, working through a series of performance-enhancing yogic visualizations with the sandy-blond, Jesus-bearded Jake Cornelius.

    “Let’s do some breathing first,” said Cornelius, who has written on his blog about the often uncontrollable rage and anger that led him to embrace rowing as an emotional outlet. “Let’s all just count, like, 10 breaths.”

    Cameron and Tyler sat with legs crossed, wrists upturned, identical Buddhas breathing in and out, in and out, in and out . . .

    “We’re gonna sit here and breathe a little bit. As you get ready to do these weights, think about the best race you ever had. Think about how it felt to win. Think about what it was like to come to the dock afterwards. Think about what the coach said. Try to bottle that feeling up.”

    It seemed like they might float up past the Olympic banners, then through one of the surveillance cameras into heaven’s rented portion of an air-conditioned server-maintenance facility just outside Palo Alto.

    “Now think about the worst race you ever had, and how shitty it felt to lose.”

    Tyler’s face tightened against the memory of failure. “Now let’s go do some weights,” said Jake Cornelius, “and never feel that way again.”

    Late American Nobility

    The Winklevosses have been living and training in the California border town of Chula Vista since last December. It is a sputtering neon error of beauty academies and pawnshops, recently terrorized by a homicidal Tijuana drug gang skilled at dissolving bodies in chemicals.

    It was here, in 1989, before the housing bubble burst and Mexicans were festooning highways with one another’s severed heads, that a group of businessmen arranged to build the U.S. Olympic Committee a $65 million training center on 150 acres of land donated by the EastLake Development Company, a local homebuilder—a facility where athletes could pursue the Athenian ideal year-round, presumably to the benefit of area property values.

    The night before I flew out from New York, the twins announced that they were abandoning their plan to petition the Supreme Court to break from matters of constitutional import to please get them more money from Facebook.

    The response of the anonymous commentariat was joyous and unforgiving: “Maybe the Winklevii started to notice that instead of just being privileged egoists they had become an international joke,” wrote one commenter on a New York Times blog. “Perhaps they should run back to the cover of anonymity before their family name is forever sullied … whoops too late.”

    But when I sat with them the next morning in the training-center cafeteria, they said they weren’t quitting at all. “It’s not in our DNA,” Tyler told me, more by way of admission than bragging, then explained that they were merely changing strategies, and why, in order for justice to be served in the fable of Winklevoss and Zuckerberg, they’re going to need another $650 million.

    In their 2008 settlement, the Winklevosses received $65 million—$20 million in cash, $45 million in stock—in exchange for dropping all claims against Facebook. (An undisclosed share of this settlement was, and remains, owned by a co-litigant, Div­ya Narendra, the Harvard classmate with whom they enlisted Mark Zuckerberg’s programming services.) The settlement’s value now stands at approximately $200 million. But, as the twins tell it, Facebook told them its shares were worth $36 each while internally valuing them at only $8.88, which meant the $45 million stock payment—once revalued at the accurate amount of $8.88 a share—was worth only about $11 million, a $34 million sleight of hand which, as Facebook’s stock has split and soared, now approaches, yes, $650 million: a never-had and yet somehow-lost fortune which the Winklevosses’ chromosomes demanded they fight for.

    So they contested the settlement on grounds of securities fraud, then undertook the cultural flagellantism of explaining to jobless and indebted Americans that, if they could only understand the 1934 Securities Exchange Act, they would realize that two physically perfect congenital millionaires were in fact wronged little guys—just like them.

    It was deeply important to the twins that I understand the humbleness of their roots—their father, Howard Winklevoss Jr., worked his way through Grove City College, their grandfather had an eighth-grade education, their great-grandfather thought Xerox machines were portents of evil, and in old age was fully hunched over after years of working in the Pennsylvania coal mines, alongside his own father, who died of black lung.

    In their mother’s family, unwashed vaudevillians roamed the Wilsonian countryside in canvas-covered flatbeds, living off pratfalls and song.

    “Have you seen Deer Hunter?” asked Tyler, in trying to convey the specifics of Winklevossian beginnings.

    “Watch the first hour of Deer Hunter,” assured Cameron.

    But poverty acquires romance only when escaped: their father parlayed his Grove City accounting degree into a professorship at Wharton, and that into Winklevoss Technologies, whose business of licensing actuarial software to Fortune 500 companies generates $20 million in annual revenues and has established the family among the upper class, with a Greenwich estate and Quogue beach house, each valued at $10 million, say the brothers—a long way from immigrant blight.

    So they are heirs not to blue blood, but to something that, in 2011, may be regarded as more ridiculous altogether: the American Dream. Here is aerobic proof that, for a stretch of history running from Normandy to Lehman, the alchemy of longing and suffering could lift a family from Pennsylvania’s coal country to Connecticut’s Gold Coast—an upward leap unthinkable for most of history.

    The Winklevosses seem almost a parody of the Jazz Age sportsman: Tom Buchanan in eerie duplicate. They modeled their rowing careers on that of a Greenwich neighbor, Ethan Ayer, an oarsman at Harvard and Cambridge. Both were accepted at Harvard early, and after graduation began training to represent America as gentlemen-athletes at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, where, rowing in a pair, they placed second in the semi-finals, but failed to win a medal. Next came a year at Oxford, Anglophile Shangri-la, rowing in the elite Blue Boat and pursuing M.B.A.’s while enrolled at Christ Church. And then, in October of 2010, The Social Network swept the weekend box office, combining celebrity with educational pedigree and money to complete the appearance of eternal aristocracy.

    But the narrative of rapid ascent has always demanded a measure of sobering tragedy: in 2002, their sister, Amanda, died at the age of 23. The New York Post ran an article soon after the death—“Tragic Final Scene: Tears for Film Fan Who Died on Movie Set”—reporting that she had collapsed after being ordered off the ramp of a camera truck on the Chelsea street set of the movie Analyze That. Amanda had just made a documentary on 9/11, said the piece, and had hoped to introduce herself to filmmakers. It had been raining heavily, and friends in her company who saw her reach for a cable as she fell speculated that she may have been electrocuted. Others who knew her “vehemently slammed” police reports that the death was drug-related.

    But Cameron and Tyler told me that their sister began suffering from depression when she was 20, and like many she found escape in drug use, which, on that June night, resulted in a cocaine overdose and cardiac arrest.

    “When you have a lot of talent you don’t necessarily have to be gracious and consider everyone,” said Tyler. “She’d go into a room and treat everyone the same. It’s rare you see that.”

    “We’ve outlived her by almost a dec­ade,” said Cameron. “But I always view her as older. I still find myself thinking, What would Amanda think about this? Throwing a question up against this mental image . . . ”

    Tender Ears

    ‘We’re the guys who are trying to carry the torch of justice forward,” says Cameron.

    Justice has, of late, disagreed: “The Winklevosses are not the first parties bested by a competitor who then seek to gain through litigation what they were unable to achieve in the marketplace,” wrote the Ninth Circuit court’s chief judge, Alex Ko­zin­ski, in dismissing their appeal this spring. “At some point, litigation must come to an end. That point has now been reached.”

    The Winklevosses had an elite team of advisers, said Kozinski, and therefore should have known better—they were screwed fair and square. It’s a point with which the brothers seem to at least partially agree. They alleged that their lawyers, Quinn Emanuel, had committed malpractice, claiming they had failed to provide a proper valuation of Facebook’s shares, and therefore should forfeit their $13 million contingency fee. An arbitration panel ruled in Quinn Emanuel’s favor, and so, subsequently, did the New York State Supreme Court.

    The twins might now be well embarked upon their post-Facebook lives were it not for the revelation of a third screwing of the Brothers Winklevoss by Mark Zuckerberg.

    “Yea i’m going to fuck them,” the undergraduate Zuckerberg had I.M.’d a friend while ostensibly working with the Winklevosses, explaining his intention to delay their planned social network and so benefit his own pre-natal Facebook. “Probably in the ear.”

    The message was leaked to Business Insider, along with others, and published there in March of 2010. The brothers say the messages should have been made available to them, and are now trying to overturn the settlement once again, using Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 60(b). Rule 60(b), notes the blog Litigation & Trial, was most famously deployed in the case of Anderson v. Cryovac, which was the basis of the 1998 John Travolta vehicle, A Civil Action. In the case, the plaintiffs won a modest judgment, then discovered that damning evidence had been kept from them, and with it petitioned the courts to open an entirely new trial.

    Which is what the Winklevosses have asked of Douglas Woodlock, the federal judge before whom they first filed suit, in 2004, but with one key difference: they never had a trial—they settled in mediation, which is binding, and that plays heavily in Facebook’s favor.

    “I’ve had plenty of people ask me why the Winklevosses can’t just be happy with $65 million and move on,” says Aaron Sorkin, who in writing The Social Network all but created the Winklevii in the mass-mind. “I know they’ve seen the I.M.’s Mark wrote while he was building the site that say, ‘I’m going to fuck the Winklevosses in the ear.’ These guys were built to win—they’re not just gonna ‘move on.’ They’re not going to see that the game’s over and Mark won in a rout.”

    ‘In my opinion, it’s all about how much pain you can make the other guy feel,” said Dan Walsh, another Olympic rower, when asked to explain the lure of a sport that offers neither fame nor fortune, and why two highly advantaged individuals would spend their 20s pursuing it—the Winklevosses were then weeks away from their 30th birthday. “It’s about trying to break him.”

    And the power of this new strategy is that it requires only modest success to get the Winklevosses what they want, which is not control of Facebook, but rather to cause Mark Zuckerberg pain measurable in pride and money, and through this pain to avenge their own ideal selves by asserting their will over his.

    The Carriers of the Torch of Justice were living in one among thousands of midsize Mediterranean villas built by the same developers who had given land for the Olympic training center two decades ago.

    They made sure to show me the profile of “Cameron Winklevoss” on ConnectU—the name of their briefly also-ran Facebook competitor—which the undergraduate Mark Zuckerberg is reported to have created as a mockery after hacking his way into the site. (Zuckerberg declined to comment.) “Languages: WASP-y,” the profile read. “Ethnicity: Better than you,” “Hair color: Aryan Blond.”

    “Where’s the outrage?” Cameron asked. “Can you imagine if we did this to him?”

    It’s true—if the Winklevosses had done the equivalent to Zuckerberg, it would have been construed as a hate crime, not collegiate folly. Groups who have suffered historically get cultural protections not afforded those who have presided over historical suffering: A well-studied impression of an inbred British aristocrat may win you friends at a cocktail party. An equally evocative napalmed Cambodian peasant probably won’t. And yet the Winklevosses descend from technophobic Pennsylvania hunchbacks. And Mark Zuckerberg is a product of Westchester, Exeter, and Harvard, a lifelong elite.

    But then, some people are born with powerful arms capable of rowing forever in pursuit of gold in all its primitive glory, and others come out with tiny little flippers and must learn to eat with their feet. Who was ever promised logic and fairness?

    “He must think we’ll go away,” said Tyler. “He must think he’ll get away with it.”

    It’s unlikely that Mark Zuckerberg thinks about them at all. In his own mind he must have outplayed them in the only real game there is—that of an organism pursuing its own self-interest. Now he was 400 miles north in Palo Alto—where the twins themselves were raised until the age of four—receiving rock stars and heads of state, credited by some with enabling the Arab Spring, one of the youngest billionaires in recorded history. And they were here in a mock-Sardinian villa, lambasting him to a stranger.

    It went on for a while, and then Cameron checked CNN.com. mexican troops replace police in half a state that borders texas, read the main headline, and we decided that a chaos-flouting journey into Mexico would be a good idea.

    Los Winklevoss

    In the brothers’ shared BMW M3, we drove alongside a van from Bee Out Bail Bonds, then past a cinder-block “exclusivo” dental clinic, then beneath a billboard bearing the anesthetizing visage of Dr. Carlos Buenrostro, chemical-peel king of Tijuana. Tyler stopped to insure the BMW against violent theft, and Cameron considered life after Facebook, rowing, and 30.

    “We could go to Hollywood,” he said. “We know Kevin Spacey. We know [Scott] Rudin. How many times have you read a book and thought, This needs to be a movie?”

    Profitable exile in one of the bric nations was also a possibility. “Brazil would probably be the most natural,” he said. “I mean, China, you really have to speak the language. And in India you gotta know people. And then Russia’s just Russia.”

    “Gentlemen,” said Tyler, returning. “We are insured.”

    We crossed the border on a surge of self-awareness, alive not in a moment but in something far greater, a plot point, three men simulating three men escaping into Mexico, land of drug cartels and body-filled pits and cowboys hiding in frontier myth. “It’s like that guy in No Country for Old Men,” said Cameron. “What’s his name?”

    “Llewelyn.”

    We drove past a highway trash fire before descending into a realm of dung-ocher hovels through which the Pacific emerged, making each of us a brief Balboa.

    We drank Coronas at a surfside bar where Tijuanans cheered on Mexico against the U.S. in soccer. The brothers were offering a free guided tour of Mark Zuckerberg’s executive failures when a young local—we’ll call him Felipe—with inky hair at shoulder length, a beer in one hand, a cigarette in the other, introduced himself. He was an aspiring Yosemite park ranger and nodded warmly when asked if he used Facebook. “I find a lot of girls on it,” he said, “a lot of pussy.”

    “Are you the twins?” he asked of the identical creatures before him.

    “Which twins?”

    “From the movie! Are you for real? Or are you the actors?”

    They denied it, absurdly. “Yeah, you’re the fucking twins,” said Felipe, studying their faces, then pulled off his cigarette like a student of smoking in film.

    “That’ll kill you,” said Tyler.

    “Everything will fucking kill you,” said Felipe.

    “Who is your favorite character from The Social Network?” asked Cameron. “Who do you like the best?”

    “The No. 1 character is definitely the guy who played them, right?” said the young man, unhelpfully. “He was a baller ’cause he’s a millionaire now—he’s the owner.”

    “Do you think that’s the most important thing?”

    “He fucked a lot of people up, right?”

    “What do you think of the people he fucked up?”

    “If I was them?”

    “What would you have done?”

    “I would fuck him up.”

    “If he was in Tijuana, if he was here, what would you do?”

    “Man . . . ” Felipe fathomed the dark enormity of his experience. “Here is crazy, Dog.”

    “Crazy thought?” misheard Tyler.

    “Crazy, Dog,” Cameron corrected him.

    “But in a perfect world,” asked Tyler, “how would you fix it?”

    “In a perfect world?” said Felipe. “There is no perfect world.”

    More people now recognized the Winklevosses as either themselves or a recently cloned Armie Hammer, and Felipe assumed the proprietary grandeur of a Victorian circus impresario before some engagingly deformed beast. “These are the ones who came up with the idea for the Facebook, but had it stolen from them,” he explained to one and all, in Spanish. “But don’t ask them that. If you do, they might get offended.”

    The Mexican soccer team defeated America 4–2, a victory sweetened by the presence of a compound American marvel, Harvard-pedigreed, Hollywood-certified, flesh-made-celluloid, celluloid-made-flesh. They signed autographs, received party invitations, and posed for iPhone pictures with locals who examined the photos as soon as they got their phones back, finger-zooming in and out with awe of self, child-like, fleetingly possessed of the primitive wonder which ascribes photography directly to magic, and once inspired fear of Xerox machines, and keeps the millions wondering why they can’t stop staring at a Web site whose greatest debt will always be to Pavlov.

    We passed the Hotel St. Francis and its life partner, the Pueblo Amigo hotel and casino. We drove alongside a flatbed truck full of ranch hands who held a long Mexican flag woven of post-consumer panty hose twisting in the highway wind, sequined with headlight glow. They honked in dialogue with the whole crawling highway, celebrating victory over America with an automotive drum circle, faces bright with sun and wind and booze.

    Asteel fence encaged the road by the border station, where a little boy walked the traffic juggling plastic balls for tips as if juggling were the most tedious thing in the world. Cameron drifted into the wrong lane, then came to the wrong border post—and just like that the Connecticut-plated BMW was under suspicion as a drug runner. We were asked to await a drive-through X-raying, then wedged between a body-rotted pickup truck and a minivan whose rear panel was being sniffed by a rangy German shepherd.

    “These guys,” said Cameron, drawing our detainers into his messaging, “are making their decision based on not how we look. On the facts. And the fact is we could very well be struggling”—this slip was the only fracture in an immaculate façade of control and confidence, and he swallowed it like a spit of bile before correcting—“smuggling drugs here.”

    “Scrutinizing our actions, not what we look like and the fact that we’re Americans,” Tyler added. “If they were waving us through despite that we made this mistake, that’s a problem. I’m upset about that.”

    “I’m totally O.K. doing this,” said Cameron. “We deserve this.”

    “I guess what I’m saying,” Tyler continued, “is the process to become a customs officer must be rational and logical and devoid of ignorance because Mexicans guarding this line with Mexican surnames and allowing or disallowing guys who have American passports would not be possible if the same type of attitude that we’ve faced from judges were applied. These guys would be knocked out because of the way they look or because of a movie or something.

    “That’s the irony here.”

    “Do you think they’re recording every conversation?” wondered Cameron.

    “Probably,” Tyler said, like he actually didn’t think so but didn’t feel like going into it.

    “Like, do you think that they’re recording this conversation right now?”

    “Probably,” said Tyler. “And so this is the large problem: that nobody’s talking about actions. Everybody’s talking—dwelling—about the kinda guys involved.”

    “‘What do they look like?’ ” asked Cameron, of himself and Tyler. “‘Square-jawed.’ Like, ‘Where did they go to school?’ ‘Where are they from?’”

    “The spotlight’s on the aggrieved party.”

    “Life . . . ” Cameron sighed.

    “And you can go to, like, airport security?” interrupted Tyler. “People who are Muslim should be allowed to be security guards—right? There’s a difference between being a fundamentalist and being al-Qaeda and being Muslim. It’s absurd to think otherwise. But certain people have not even reached that standard of thinking with regards to us.”

    “I think I got a lot of color today,” said Cameron.

    “We rowed and there was a lot of sun,” said Tyler.

    The border X-ray pulsed through the German sports car, and maybe a little through our skin, and maybe even a little bit through our bones, and it felt like nothing at all, and then we were back in America.

    Gattaca

    The identical twins ate identical cheeseburgers with identical fries and identical shakes at the Chula Vista In-N-Out Burger, which is roughly identical to all the other In-N-Out Burgers.

    “I’ve been told by journalists that Facebook is upset anytime we’re mentioned,” said Cameron. “This is the raining on the parade, the dark cloud looming over, um—you know that they just want to blow it away instead of trying to understand: ‘Why is it here?’ And ‘How can we fix this and make the sun shine?’”

    I offered that Facebook couldn’t “fix this and make the sun shine”—to even vaguely acknowledge charges of securities fraud would be unthinkable for a company about to file a $100 billion stock sale with the S.E.C.

    “We could all forgive and forget,” said Tyler. “We could easily do a settlement and just, like, we wish them well, they wish us well, blah blah blah—there’s no admission explicitly there.”

    “But now you’re not crusading for justice anymore,” I told them.

    “Well . . . ” Cameron realized Tyler had said too much. “That’s true—”

    “Well, it’s implied that—” Tyler tried to clarify: “No, because, look, if we feel made whole and right and the wrong was righted, that’s, I think that’s—look, you can have, you can bury the hatchet and also . . . ”

    ‘The more the data banks record about each one of us, the less we exist,” wrote Marshall McLuhan at the birth of the Information Age, though in all his pessimism he never guessed we’d perform the data entry free of charge, and like it.

    Mark Zuckerberg frightens many in appearing to view privacy not as civilization’s Ur-right but as a basically silly notion to be slowly outgrown. He is a homogenizer of experience, a commoditizer, and so obliterator, of the private self. But what could be more in step with history’s de-personalizing course? Once, the sun went around the earth, and the light of the stars was that of heaven, and each town had its own little hamburger shop.

    The Winklevosses—Gentlemen of Harvard, Olympic dreamers, Leyendecker men—could not more fully evoke the past, which, for better or worse, always loses to the future.

    They don’t see it this way, citing the 1997 genetic thriller Gattaca as a testament to the resilience of the human spirit, and, by extension, their own legal prospects. Then they bickered for a while about whether or not, in that movie, Ethan Hawke was a better swimmer than his genetically perfect brother, whom both misremembered as having been played by Jude Law. They went back and forth on this point for several minutes, until finally Cameron got a plot summary on his iPhone and read it aloud to prove that he was right and Tyler was wrong.

    And Tyler hated losing.

    “We’re quibbling, Cameron,” he said. “Let’s move on.”

     

    Copyright. 2011 Vanity Fair Magazine. All Rights Reserved

     

     

     
     
  • Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence

    Tim Enthoven

    It afflicts us all. Because confidence in our own judgments is part of being human.

     

     

    October 19, 2011
     

    Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence

    By DANIEL KAHNEMAN

    Many decades ago I spent what seemed like a great deal of time under a scorching sun, watching groups of sweaty soldiers as they solved a problem. I was doing my national service in the Israeli Army at the time. I had completed an undergraduate degree in psychology, and after a year as an infantry officer, I was assigned to the army’s Psychology Branch, where one of my occasional duties was to help evaluate candidates for officer training. We used methods that were developed by the British Army in World War II.

    One test, called the leaderless group challenge, was conducted on an obstacle field. Eight candidates, strangers to one another, with all insignia of rank removed and only numbered tags to identify them, were instructed to lift a long log from the ground and haul it to a wall about six feet high. There, they were told that the entire group had to get to the other side of the wall without the log touching either the ground or the wall, and without anyone touching the wall. If any of these things happened, they were to acknowledge it and start again.

    A common solution was for several men to reach the other side by crawling along the log as the other men held it up at an angle, like a giant fishing rod. Then one man would climb onto another’s shoulder and tip the log to the far side. The last two men would then have to jump up at the log, now suspended from the other side by those who had made it over, shinny their way along its length and then leap down safely once they crossed the wall. Failure was common at this point, which required starting over.

    As a colleague and I monitored the exercise, we made note of who took charge, who tried to lead but was rebuffed, how much each soldier contributed to the group effort. We saw who seemed to be stubborn, submissive, arrogant, patient, hot-tempered, persistent or a quitter. We sometimes saw competitive spite when someone whose idea had been rejected by the group no longer worked very hard. And we saw reactions to crisis: who berated a comrade whose mistake caused the whole group to fail, who stepped forward to lead when the exhausted team had to start over. Under the stress of the event, we felt, each man’s true nature revealed itself in sharp relief.

    After watching the candidates go through several such tests, we had to summarize our impressions of the soldiers’ leadership abilities with a grade and determine who would be eligible for officer training. We spent some time discussing each case and reviewing our impressions. The task was not difficult, because we had already seen each of these soldiers’ leadership skills. Some of the men looked like strong leaders, others seemed like wimps or arrogant fools, others mediocre but not hopeless. Quite a few appeared to be so weak that we ruled them out as officer candidates. When our multiple observations of each candidate converged on a coherent picture, we were completely confident in our evaluations and believed that what we saw pointed directly to the future. The soldier who took over when the group was in trouble and led the team over the wall was a leader at that moment. The obvious best guess about how he would do in training, or in combat, was that he would be as effective as he had been at the wall. Any other prediction seemed inconsistent with what we saw.

    Because our impressions of how well each soldier performed were generally coherent and clear, our formal predictions were just as definite. We rarely experienced doubt or conflicting impressions. We were quite willing to declare: “This one will never make it,” “That fellow is rather mediocre, but should do O.K.” or “He will be a star.” We felt no need to question our forecasts, moderate them or equivocate. If challenged, however, we were fully prepared to admit, “But of course anything could happen.”

    We were willing to make that admission because, as it turned out, despite our certainty about the potential of individual candidates, our forecasts were largely useless. The evidence was overwhelming. Every few months we had a feedback session in which we could compare our evaluations of future cadets with the judgments of their commanders at the officer-training school. The story was always the same: our ability to predict performance at the school was negligible. Our forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much.

    We were downcast for a while after receiving the discouraging news. But this was the army. Useful or not, there was a routine to be followed, and there were orders to be obeyed. Another batch of candidates would arrive the next day. We took them to the obstacle field, we faced them with the wall, they lifted the log and within a few minutes we saw their true natures revealed, as clearly as ever. The dismal truth about the quality of our predictions had no effect whatsoever on how we evaluated new candidates and very little effect on the confidence we had in our judgments and predictions.

    I thought that what was happening to us was remarkable. The statistical evidence of our failure should have shaken our confidence in our judgments of particular candidates, but it did not. It should also have caused us to moderate our predictions, but it did not. We knew as a general fact that our predictions were little better than random guesses, but we continued to feel and act as if each particular prediction was valid. I was reminded of visual illusions, which remain compelling even when you know that what you see is false. I was so struck by the analogy that I coined a term for our experience: the illusion of validity.

    I had discovered my first cognitive fallacy.

    Decades later, I can see many of the central themes of my thinking about judgment in that old experience. One of these themes is that people who face a difficult question often answer an easier one instead, without realizing it. We were required to predict a soldier’s performance in officer training and in combat, but we did so by evaluating his behavior over one hour in an artificial situation. This was a perfect instance of a general rule that I call WYSIATI, “What you see is all there is.” We had made up a story from the little we knew but had no way to allow for what we did not know about the individual’s future, which was almost everything that would actually matter. When you know as little as we did, you should not make extreme predictions like “He will be a star.” The stars we saw on the obstacle field were most likely accidental flickers, in which a coincidence of random events — like who was near the wall — largely determined who became a leader. Other events — some of them also random — would determine later success in training and combat.

    You may be surprised by our failure: it is natural to expect the same leadership ability to manifest itself in various situations. But the exaggerated expectation of consistency is a common error. We are prone to think that the world is more regular and predictable than it really is, because our memory automatically and continuously maintains a story about what is going on, and because the rules of memory tend to make that story as coherent as possible and to suppress alternatives. Fast thinking is not prone to doubt.

    The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

    I coined the term “illusion of validity” because the confidence we had in judgments about individual soldiers was not affected by a statistical fact we knew to be true — that our predictions were unrelated to the truth. This is not an isolated observation. When a compelling impression of a particular event clashes with general knowledge, the impression commonly prevails. And this goes for you, too. The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.

    I first visited a Wall Street firm in 1984. I was there with my longtime collaborator Amos Tversky, who died in 1996, and our friend Richard Thaler, now a guru of behavioral economics. Our host, a senior investment manager, had invited us to discuss the role of judgment biases in investing. I knew so little about finance at the time that I had no idea what to ask him, but I remember one exchange. “When you sell a stock,” I asked him, “who buys it?” He answered with a wave in the vague direction of the window, indicating that he expected the buyer to be someone else very much like him. That was odd: because most buyers and sellers know that they have the same information as one another, what made one person buy and the other sell? Buyers think the price is too low and likely to rise; sellers think the price is high and likely to drop. The puzzle is why buyers and sellers alike think that the current price is wrong.

    Most people in the investment business have read Burton Malkiel’s wonderful book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” Malkiel’s central idea is that a stock’s price incorporates all the available knowledge about the value of the company and the best predictions about the future of the stock. If some people believe that the price of a stock will be higher tomorrow, they will buy more of it today. This, in turn, will cause its price to rise. If all assets in a market are correctly priced, no one can expect either to gain or to lose by trading.

    We now know, however, that the theory is not quite right. Many individual investors lose consistently by trading, an achievement that a dart-throwing chimp could not match. The first demonstration of this startling conclusion was put forward by Terry Odean, a former student of mine who is now a finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

    Odean analyzed the trading records of 10,000 brokerage accounts of individual investors over a seven-year period, allowing him to identify all instances in which an investor sold one stock and soon afterward bought another stock. By these actions the investor revealed that he (most of the investors were men) had a definite idea about the future of two stocks: he expected the stock that he bought to do better than the one he sold.

    To determine whether those appraisals were well founded, Odean compared the returns of the two stocks over the following year. The results were unequivocally bad. On average, the shares investors sold did better than those they bought, by a very substantial margin: 3.3 percentage points per year, in addition to the significant costs of executing the trades. Some individuals did much better, others did much worse, but the large majority of individual investors would have done better by taking a nap rather than by acting on their ideas. In a paper titled “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth,” Odean and his colleague Brad Barber showed that, on average, the most active traders had the poorest results, while those who traded the least earned the highest returns. In another paper, “Boys Will Be Boys,” they reported that men act on their useless ideas significantly more often than women do, and that as a result women achieve better investment results than men.

    Of course, there is always someone on the other side of a transaction; in general, it’s a financial institution or professional investor, ready to take advantage of the mistakes that individual traders make. Further research by Barber and Odean has shed light on these mistakes. Individual investors like to lock in their gains; they sell “winners,” stocks whose prices have gone up, and they hang on to their losers. Unfortunately for them, in the short run going forward recent winners tend to do better than recent losers, so individuals sell the wrong stocks. They also buy the wrong stocks. Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news. Professional investors are more selective in responding to news. These findings provide some justification for the label of “smart money” that finance professionals apply to themselves.

    Although professionals are able to extract a considerable amount of wealth from amateurs, few stock pickers, if any, have the skill needed to beat the market consistently, year after year. The diagnostic for the existence of any skill is the consistency of individual differences in achievement. The logic is simple: if individual differences in any one year are due entirely to luck, the ranking of investors and funds will vary erratically and the year-to-year correlation will be zero. Where there is skill, however, the rankings will be more stable. The persistence of individual differences is the measure by which we confirm the existence of skill among golfers, orthodontists or speedy toll collectors on the turnpike.

    Mutual funds are run by highly experienced and hard-working professionals who buy and sell stocks to achieve the best possible results for their clients. Nevertheless, the evidence from more than 50 years of research is conclusive: for a large majority of fund managers, the selection of stocks is more like rolling dice than like playing poker. At least two out of every three mutual funds underperform the overall market in any given year.

    More important, the year-to-year correlation among the outcomes of mutual funds is very small, barely different from zero. The funds that were successful in any given year were mostly lucky; they had a good roll of the dice. There is general agreement among researchers that this is true for nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not — and most do not. The subjective experience of traders is that they are making sensible, educated guesses in a situation of great uncertainty. In highly efficient markets, however, educated guesses are not more accurate than blind guesses.

    Some years after my introduction to the world of finance, I had an unusual opportunity to examine the illusion of skill up close. I was invited to speak to a group of investment advisers in a firm that provided financial advice and other services to very wealthy clients. I asked for some data to prepare my presentation and was granted a small treasure: a spreadsheet summarizing the investment outcomes of some 25 anonymous wealth advisers, for eight consecutive years. The advisers’ scores for each year were the main determinant of their year-end bonuses. It was a simple matter to rank the advisers by their performance and to answer a question: Did the same advisers consistently achieve better returns for their clients year after year? Did some advisers consistently display more skill than others?

    To find the answer, I computed the correlations between the rankings of advisers in different years, comparing Year 1 with Year 2, Year 1 with Year 3 and so on up through Year 7 with Year 8. That yielded 28 correlations, one for each pair of years. While I was prepared to find little year-to-year consistency, I was still surprised to find that the average of the 28 correlations was .01. In other words, zero. The stability that would indicate differences in skill was not to be found. The results resembled what you would expect from a dice-rolling contest, not a game of skill.

    No one in the firm seemed to be aware of the nature of the game that its stock pickers were playing. The advisers themselves felt they were competent professionals performing a task that was difficult but not impossible, and their superiors agreed. On the evening before the seminar, Richard Thaler and I had dinner with some of the top executives of the firm, the people who decide on the size of bonuses. We asked them to guess the year-to-year correlation in the rankings of individual advisers. They thought they knew what was coming and smiled as they said, “not very high” or “performance certainly fluctuates.” It quickly became clear, however, that no one expected the average correlation to be zero.

    What we told the directors of the firm was that, at least when it came to building portfolios, the firm was rewarding luck as if it were skill. This should have been shocking news to them, but it was not. There was no sign that they disbelieved us. How could they? After all, we had analyzed their own results, and they were certainly sophisticated enough to appreciate their implications, which we politely refrained from spelling out. We all went on calmly with our dinner, and I am quite sure that both our findings and their implications were quickly swept under the rug and that life in the firm went on just as before. The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the industry. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. This is particularly true of statistical studies of performance, which provide general facts that people will ignore if they conflict with their personal experience.

    The next morning, we reported the findings to the advisers, and their response was equally bland. Their personal experience of exercising careful professional judgment on complex problems was far more compelling to them than an obscure statistical result. When we were done, one executive I dined with the previous evening drove me to the airport. He told me, with a trace of defensiveness, “I have done very well for the firm, and no one can take that away from me.” I smiled and said nothing. But I thought, privately: Well, I took it away from you this morning. If your success was due mostly to chance, how much credit are you entitled to take for it?

    We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the justified confidence of experts from the sincere overconfidence of professionals who do not know they are out of their depth? We can believe an expert who admits uncertainty but cannot take expressions of high confidence at face value. As I first learned on the obstacle field, people come up with coherent stories and confident predictions even when they know little or nothing. Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness.

    True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes. You are probably an expert in guessing your spouse’s mood from one word on the telephone; chess players find a strong move in a single glance at a complex position; and true legends of instant diagnoses are common among physicians. To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals’ experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes. Anesthesiologists have a better chance to develop intuitions than radiologists do. Many of the professionals we encounter easily pass both tests, and their off-the-cuff judgments deserve to be taken seriously. In general, however, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.

    Daniel Kahneman is emeritus professor of psychology and of public affairs at Princeton University and a winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics. This article is adapted from his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” out this month from Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

    Editor: Dean Robinson

     

    Copyright. 2011 The New York Times Company. All Rights Reserved