Month: November 2005
















  • November 22, 1963 - November22,2005









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    This event took place on November 22, 1963, and was reported in the The New York Times the following day.

    KENNEDY IS KILLED BY SNIPER AS HE RIDES IN CAR IN DALLAS; JOHNSON SWORN IN ON PLANE


    Gov. Connally Shot; Mrs. Kennedy Safe
    President Is Struck Down by a Rifle Shot From Building on Motorcade Route--Johnson, Riding Behind, Is Unhurt

    By TOM WICKER


    Special to THE NEW YORK TIMES

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    Dallas, Nov. 22--President John Fitzgerald Kennedy was shot and killed by an assassin today.

    He died of a wound in the brain caused by a rifle bullet that was fired at him as he was riding through downtown Dallas in a motorcade.

    Vice President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who was riding in the third car behind Mr. Kennedy's, was sworn in as the 36th President of the United States 99 minutes after Mr. Kennedy's death.

    Mr. Johnson is 55 years old; Mr. Kennedy was 46.

    Shortly after the assassination, Lee H. Oswald, who once defected to the Soviet Union and who has been active in the Fair Play for Cuba Committee, was arrested by the Dallas police. Tonight he was accused of the killing.

    Suspect Captured After Scuffle

    Oswald, 24 years old, was also accused of slaying a policeman who had approached him in the street. Oswald was subdued after a scuffle with a second policeman in a nearby theater.

    President Kennedy was shot at 12:30 P.M., Central standard time (1:30 P.M., New York time). He was pronounced dead at 1 P.M. and Mr. Johnson was sworn in at 2:39 P.M.

    Mr. Johnson, who was uninjured in the shooting, took his oath in the Presidential jet plane as it stood on the runway at Love Field. The body of Mr. Kennedy was aboard. Immediately after the oath-taking, the plane took off for Washington.

    Standing beside the new President as Mr. Johnson took the oath of office was Mrs. John F. Kennedy. Her stockings were spattered with her husband's blood.

    Gov. John B. Connally Jr. of Texas, who was riding in the same car with Mr. Kennedy, was severely wounded in the chest, ribs and arm. His condition was serious, but not critical.

    The killer fired the rifle from a building just off the motorcade route. Mr. Kennedy, Governor Connally and Mr. Johnson had just received an enthusiastic welcome from a large crowd in downtown Dallas.

    Mr. Kennedy apparently was hit by the first of what witnesses believed were three shots. He was driven at high speed to Dallas's Parkland Hospital. There, in an emergency operating room, with only physicians and nurses in attendance, he died without regaining consciousness.

    Mrs. Kennedy, Mrs. Connally and a Secret Service agent were in the car with Mrs. Kennedy and Governor Connally. Two Secret Service agents flanked the car. Other than Mr. Connally, none of this group was injured in the shooting. Mrs. Kennedy cried "Oh no!" immediately after her husband was struck.

    Mrs. Kennedy was in the hospital near her husband when he died, but not in the operating room. When the body was taken from the hospital in a bronze coffin about 2 P.M., Mrs. Kennedy walked beside it.

    Her face was sorrowful. She looked steadily at the floor. She still wore the raspberry-colored suit in which she had greeted welcoming crowds in Fort Worth and Dallas. But she had taken off the matching pillbox hat she wore earlier in the day, and her dark hair was windblown and tangled. Her hand rested lightly on her husband's coffin as it was taken to a waiting hearse.

    Mrs. Kennedy climbed in beside the coffin. Then the ambulance drove to Love Field, and Mr. Kennedy's body was placed aboard the Presidential jet. Mrs. Kennedy then attended the swearing-in ceremony for Mr. Johnson.

    As Mr. Kennedy's body left Parkland Hospital, a few stunned persons stood outside. Nurses and doctors, whispering among themselves, looked from the window. A larger crowd that had gathered earlier, before it was known that the President was dead, had been dispersed by Secret Service men and policemen.

    Priests Administer Last Rites

    Two priests administered last rites to Mr. Kennedy, a Roman Catholic. They were the Very rev. Oscar Huber, the pastor of Holy Trinity Church in Dallas, and the Rev. James Thompson.

    Mr. Johnson was sworn in as President by Federal Judge Sarah T. Hughes of the Northern District of Texas. She was appointed to the judgeship by Mr. Kennedy in October, 1961.

    The ceremony, delayed about five minutes for Mrs. Kennedy's arrival, took place in the private Presidential cabin in the rear of the plane.

    About 25 to 30 persons--members of the late President's staff, members of Congress who had been accompanying the President on a two-day tour of Texas cities and a few reporters--crowded into the little room.

    No accurate listing of those present could be obtained. Mrs. Kennedy stood at the left of Mr. Johnson, her eyes and face showing the signs of weeping that had apparently shaken her since she left the hospital not long before.

    Mrs. Johnson, wearing a beige dress, stood at her husband's right.

    As Judge Hughes read the brief oath of office, her eyes, too, were red from weeping. Mr. Johnson's hands rested on a black, leather-bound Bible as Judge Hughes read and he repeated:

    "I do solemnly swear that I will perform the duties of the President of the United States to the best of my ability and defend, protect and preserve the Constitution of the United States."

    Those 34 words made Lyndon Baines Johnson, one-time farmboy and schoolteacher of Johnson City, the President.

    Johnson Embraces Mrs. Kennedy

    Mr. Johnson made no statement. He embraced Mrs. Kennedy and she held his hand for a long moment. He also embraced Mrs. Johnson and Mrs. Evelyn Lincoln, Mr. Kennedy's private secretary.

    "O.K.," Mr. Johnson said. "Let's get this plane back to Washington."

    At 2:46 P.M., seven minutes after he had become President, 106 minutes after Mr. Kennedy had become the fourth American President to succumb to an assassin's wounds, the white and red jet took off for Washington.

    In the cabin when Mr. Johnson took the oath was Cecil Stoughton, an armed forces photographer assigned to the White House.

    Mr. Kennedy's staff members appeared stunned and bewildered. Lawrence F. O'Brien, the Congressional liaison officer, and P. Kenneth O'Donnell, the appointment secretary, both long associates of Mr. Kennedy, showed evidence of weeping. None had anything to say.

    Other staff members believed to be in the cabin for the swearing-in included David F. Powers, the White House receptionist; Miss Pamela Turnure, Mrs. Kennedy's press secretary, and Malcolm Kilduff, the assistant White House press secretary.

    Mr. Kilduff announced the President's death, with choked voice and red-rimmed eyes, at about 1:36 P.M.

    "President John F. Kennedy died at approximately 1 o'clock Central standard time today here in Dallas," Mr. Kilduff said at the hospital. "He died of a gunshot wound in the brain. I have no other details regarding the assassination of the President."

    Mr. Kilduff also announced that Governor Connally had been hit by a bullet or bullets and that Mr. Johnson, who had not yet been sworn in, was safe in the protective custody of the Secret Service at an unannounced place, presumably the airplane at Love Field.

    Mr. Kilduff indicated that the President had been shot once. Later medical reports raised the possibility that there had been two wounds. But the death was caused, as far as could be learned, by a massive wound in the brain.

    Later in the afternoon, Dr. Malcolm Perry, an attending surgeon, and Dr. Kemp Clark, chief of neurosurgery at Parkland Hospital, gave more details.

    Mr. Kennedy was hit by a bullet in the throat, just below the Adam's apple, they said. This wound had the appearance of a bullet's entry.

    Mr. Kennedy also had a massive, gaping wound in the back and one on the right side of the head. However, the doctors said it was impossible to determine immediately whether the wounds had been caused by one bullet or two.

    Resuscitation Attempted

    Dr. Perry, the first physician to treat the President, said a number of resuscitative measures had been attempted, including oxygen, anesthesia, an indotracheal tube, a tracheotomy, blood and fluids. An electrocardiogram monitor was attached to measure Mr. Kennedy's heart beats.

    Dr. Clark was summoned and arrived in a minute or two. By then, Dr. Perry said, Mr. Kennedy was "critically ill and moribund," or near death.

    Dr. Clark said that on his first sight of the President, he had concluded immediately that Mr. Kennedy could not live.

    "It was apparent that the President had sustained a lethal wound," he said. "A missile had gone in and out of the back of his head causing external lacerations and loss of brain tissue."

    Shortly after he arrived, Dr. Clark said, "the President lost his heart action by the electrocardiogram." A closed-chest cardiograph massage was attempted, as were other emergency resuscitation measures.

    Dr. Clark said these had produced "palpable pulses" for a short time, but all were "to no avail."

    In Operating Room 40 Minutes

    The President was on the emergency table at the hospital for about 40 minutes, the doctors said. At the end, perhaps eight physicians were in Operating Room No. 1, where Mr. Kennedy remained until his death. Dr. Clark said it was difficult to determine the exact moment of death, but the doctors said officially that it occurred at 1 P.M.

    Later, there were unofficial reports that Mr. Kennedy had been killed instantly. The source of these reports, Dr. Tom Shires, chief surgeon at the hospital and professor of surgery at the University of Texas Southwest Medical School, issued this statement tonight:

    "Medically, it was apparent the president was not alive when he was brought in. There was no spontaneous respiration. He had dilated, fixed pupils. It was obvious he had a lethal head wound.

    "Technically, however, by using vigorous resuscitation, intravenous tubes and all the usual supportive measures, we were able to raise a semblance of a heartbeat."

    Dr. Shires said he was "positive it was impossible that President Kennedy could have spoken after being shot. "I am absolutely sure he never knew what hit him," Dr. Shires said.

    Dr. Shires was not present when Mr. Kennedy was being treated at Parkland Hospital. He issued his statement, however, after lengthy conferences with the doctors who had attended the President.

    Mr. Johnson remained in the hospital about 30 minutes after Mr. Kennedy died.

    The details of what happened when shots first rang out, as the President's car moved along at about 25 miles an hour, were sketchy. Secret Service agents, who might have given more details, were unavailable to the press at first, and then returned to Washington with President Johnson.

    Kennedys Hailed at Breakfast

    Mr. Kennedy had opened his day in Fort Worth, first with a speech in a parking lot and then at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast. The breakfast appearance was a particular triumph for Mrs. Kennedy, who entered late and was given an ovation.

    Then the Presidential party, including Governor and Mrs. Connally, flew on to Dallas, an eight- minute flight. Mr. Johnson, as is customary, flew in a separate plane. The President and the Vice President do not travel together, out of fear of a double tragedy.

    At Love Field, Mr. and Mrs. Kennedy lingered for 10 minutes, shaking hands with an enthusiastic group lining the fence. The group called itself "Grassroots Democrats."

    Mr. Kennedy then entered his open Lincoln convertible at the head of the motorcade. He sat in the rear seat on the right-hand side. Mrs. Kennedy, who appeared to be enjoying one of the first political outings she had ever made with her husband, sat at his left.

    In the "jump" seat, directly ahead of Mr. Kennedy, sat Governor Connally, with Mrs. Connally at his left in another "jump" seat. A Secret Service agent was driving and the two others ran alongside.

    Behind the President's limousine was an open sedan carrying a number of Secret Service agents. Behind them, in an open convertible, rode Mr. and Mrs. Johnson and Texas's senior Senator, Ralph W. Yarborough, a Democrat.

    The motorcade proceeded uneventfully along a 10-mile route through downtown Dallas, aiming for the Merchandise Mart. Mr. Kennedy was to address a group of the city's leading citizens at a luncheon in his honor.

    In downtown Dallas, crowds were thick, enthusiastic and cheering. The turnout was somewhat unusual for this center of conservatism, where only a month ago Adlai E. Stevenson was attacked by a rightist crowd. It was also in Dallas, during the 1960 campaign, that Senator Lyndon B. Johnson and his wife were nearly mobbed in the lobby of the Baker Hotel.

    As the motorcade neared its end and the President's car moved out of the thick crowds onto Stennonds Freeway near the Merchandise Mart, Mrs. Connally recalled later, "we were all very pleased with the reception in downtown Dallas."

    Approaching 3-Street Underpass

    Behind the three leading cars were a string of others carrying Texas and Dallas dignitaries, two buses of reporters, several open cars carrying photographers and other reporters, and a bus for White House staff members.

    As Mrs. Connally recalled later, the President's car was almost ready to go underneath a "triple underpass beneath three streets--Elm, Commerce and Main--when the first shot was fired.

    That shot apparently struck Mr. Kennedy. Governor Connally turned in his seat at the sound and appeared immediately to be hit in the chest.

    Mrs. Mary Norman of Dallas was standing at the curb and at that moment was aiming her camera at the President. She saw him slump forward, then slide down in the seat.

    "My God," Mrs. Norman screamed, as she recalled it later, "he's shot!"

    Mrs. Connally said that Mrs. Kennedy had reached and "grabbed" her husband. Mrs. Connally put her arms around the Governor. Mrs. Connally said that she and Mrs. Kennedy had then ducked low in the car as it sped off.

    Mrs. Connally's recollections were reported by Julian Reade, an aide to the Governor.

    Most reporters in the press buses were too far back to see the shootings, but they observed some quick scurrying by motor policemen accompanying the motorcade. It was noted that the President's car had picked up speed and raced away, but reporters were not aware that anything serious had occurred until they reached the Merchandise Mart two or three minutes later.

    Rumors Spread at Trade Mart

    Rumors of the shooting already were spreading through the luncheon crowd of hundreds, which was having the first course. No White House officials or Secret Service agents were present, but the reporters were taken quickly to Parkland Hospital on the strength of the rumors.

    There they encountered Senator Yarborough, white, shaken and horrified.

    The shots, he said, seemed to have come from the right and the rear of the car in which he was riding, the third in the motorcade. Another eyewitness, Mel Crouch, a Dallas television reporter, reported that as the shots rang out he saw a rifle extended and then withdrawn from a window on the "fifth or sixth floor" of the Texas Public School Book Depository. This is a leased state building on Elm Street, to the right of the motorcade route.

    Senator Yarborough said there had been a slight pause between the first two shots and a longer pause between the second and third. A Secret Service man riding in the Senator's car, the Senator said, immediately ordered Mr. and Mrs. Johnson to get down below the level of the doors. They did so, and Senator Yarborough also got down.

    The leading cars of the motorcade then pulled away at high speed toward Parkland Hospital, which was not far away, by the fast highway.

    "We knew by the speed that something was terribly wrong," Senator Yarborough reported. When he put his head up, he said, he saw a Secret Serve man in the car ahead beating his fists against the trunk deck of the car in which he was riding, apparently in frustration and anguish.

    Mrs. Kennedy's Reaction

    Only White House staff members spoke with Mrs. Kennedy. A Dallas medical student, David Edwards, saw her in Parkland Hospital while she was waiting for news of her husband. He gave this description:

    "The look in her eyes was like an animal that had been trapped, like a little rabbit--brave, but fear was in the eyes."

    Dr. Clark was reported to have informed Mrs. Kennedy of her husband's death.

    No witnesses reported seeing or hearing any of the Secret Service agents or policemen fire back. One agent was seen to brandish a machine gun as the cars sped away. Mr. Crouch observed a policeman falling to the ground and pulling a weapon. But the events had occurred so quickly that there was apparently nothing for the men to shoot at.

    Mr. Crouch said he saw two women, standing at a curb to watch the motorcade pass, fall to the ground when the shots rang out. He also saw a man snatch up his little girl and run along the road. Policemen, he said, immediately chased this man under the impression he had been involved in the shooting, but Mr. Crouch said he had been a fleeing spectator.

    Mr. Kennedy's limousine--license No. GG300 under District of Columbia registry--pulled up at the emergency entrance of Parkland Hospital. Senator Yarborough said the President had been carried inside on a stretcher.

    By the time reporters arrived at the hospital, the police were guarding the Presidential car closely. They would allow no one to approach it. A bucket of water stood by the car, suggesting that the back seat had been scrubbed out.

    Robert Clark of the American Broadcasting Company, who had been riding near the front of the motorcade, said Mr. Kennedy was motionless when he was carried inside. There was a great amount of blood on Mr. Kennedy's suit and shirtfront and the front of his body, Mr. Clark said.

    Mrs. Kennedy was leaning over her husband when the car stopped, Mr. Clark said, and he walked beside the wheeled stretcher into the hospital. Mr. Connally sat with his hands holding his stomach, his head bent over. He, too, was moved into the hospital in a stretcher, with Mrs. Connally at his side.

    Robert McNeill of the National Broadcasting Company, who also was in the reporters' pool car, jumped out at the scene of the shooting. He said the police had taken two eyewitnesses into custody--an 8-year-old Negro boy and a white man--for informational purposes.

    Many of these reports could not be verified immediately.

    Eyewitness Describes Shooting

    An unidentified Dallas man, interviewed on television here, said he had been waving at the President when the shots were fired. His belief was that Mr. Kennedy had been struck twice-- once, as Mrs. Norman recalled, when he slumped in his seat; again when he slid down in it.

    "It seemed to just knock him down," the man said.

    Governor Connally's condition was reported as "satisfactory" tonight after four hours in surgery at Parkland Hospital.

    Dr. Robert R. Shaw, a thoracic surgeon, operated on the Governor to repair damage to his left chest.

    Later, Dr. Shaw said Governor Connally had been hit in the back just below the shoulder blade, and that the bullet had gone completely through the Governor's chest, taking out part of the fifth rib.

    After leaving the body, he said, the bullet struck the Governor's right wrist, causing a compound fracture. It then lodged in the left thigh.

    The thigh wound, Dr. Shaw said, was trivial. He said the compound fracture would heal.

    Dr. Shaw said it would be unwise for Governor Connally to be moved in the next 10 to 14 days. Mrs. Connally was remaining at his side tonight.

    Tour by Mrs. Kennedy Unusual

    Mrs. Kennedy's presence near her husband's bedside at his death resulted from somewhat unusual circumstances. She had rarely accompanied him on his trips about the country and had almost never made political trips with him.

    The tour on which Mr. Kennedy was engaged yesterday and today was only quasi-political; the only open political activity was to have been a speech tonight to a fund-raising dinner at the state capitol in Austin.

    In visiting Texas, Mr. Kennedy was seeking to improve his political fortunes in a pivotal state that he barely won in 1960. He was also hoping to patch a bitter internal dispute among Texas's Democrats.

    At 8:45 A.M., when Mr. Kennedy left the Texas Hotel in Fort Worth, where he spent his last night, to address the parking lot crowd across the street, Mrs. Kennedy was not with him. There appeared to be some disappointment.

    "Mrs. Kennedy is organizing herself," the President said good-naturedly. "It takes longer, but, of course, she looks better than we do when she does it."

    Later, Mrs. Kennedy appeared late at the Chamber of Commerce breakfast in Fort Worth.

    Again, Mr. Kennedy took note of her presence. "Two years ago," he said, "I introduced myself in Paris by saying that I was the man who had accompanied Mrs. Kennedy to Paris. I am getting somewhat that same sensation as I travel around Texas. Nobody wonders what Lyndon and I wear."

    The speech Mr. Kennedy never delivered at the Merchandise Mart luncheon contained a passage commenting on a recent preoccupation of his, and a subject of much interest in this city, where right-wing conservatism is the rule rather than the exception.

    Voices are being heard in the land, he said, "voices preaching doctrines wholly unrelated to reality, wholly unsuited to the sixties, doctrines which apparently assume that words will suffice without weapons, that vituperation is as good as victory and that peace is a sign of weakness."

    The speech went on: "At a time when the national debt is steadily being reduced in terms of its burden on our economy, they see that debt as the greatest threat to our security. At a time when we are steadily reducing the number of Federal employees serving every thousand citizens, they fear those supposed hordes of civil servants far more than the actual hordes of opposing armies.

    "We cannot expect that everyone, to use the phrase of a decade ago, will 'talk sense to the American people.' But we can hope that fewer people will listen to nonsense. And the notion that this nation is headed for defeat through deficit, or that strength is but a matter of slogans, is nothing but just plain nonsense."




     







    Lynne Truss










    Photo of Lynne Truss by Jillian Lochner

    November 20, 2005
    Lynne Truss Has Another Gripe With You
    By DEBORAH SOLOMON

    "To some people, the fact that I am not married, or don't have children, would be the reason I have written a book on punctuation," Lynne Truss remarked on a recent afternoon in her gravelly British voice. She was sitting in her living room in Brighton, the seaside resort on the southern coast of England, where she inhabits a realm far removed from the vacationing families who stroll the Palace Pier, eating fried cod, lifting pinwheels into the breeze and gazing out toward the tip of France.

    Inside her stucco town house, the curtains were drawn and stillness prevailed. "That is why it is very painful to be interviewed or profiled," Truss continued. "Because you think when you read the piece, Oh, that is how I come across, as someone who is too interested in stationery, or as someone who doesn't know how to spend money."

    Two years ago, Truss was vaulted into unexpected celebrity when, after a long and quiet career as a novelist and critic, she published a short, witty book on punctuation. Initially brought out in London with a hopeful first printing of 15,000 books, "Eats, Shoots & Leaves: The Zero Tolerance Approach to Punctuation" went on to sell some three million copies in hardcover. It fared well even in foreign languages, including Japanese and Swedish, the go-to grammar book for those studying English as a second language. In America, the book easily held its own against "Harry Potter," diet books and the plethora of pre-election screeds, remaining on the New York Times best-seller list for 44 weeks. The book's title, by the way, refers to a joke about a panda that walks into a cafe. He eats a sandwich, fires a pistol into the air and then leaves. On his way out, he tosses a wildlife handbook at a bewildered waiter, who understands everything when he turns to the section marked "panda" and notices a grievously misplaced comma: "Eats, shoots and leaves."

    Truss, a self-described stickler, a woman incensed by the gratuitous apostrophes in grocery-store signs that say "Apple's for Sale" or "We Have Lemon's and Lime's and Video's," had achieved the not inconsiderable feat of making punctuation hot. She turned the apostrophe into a form of mass entertainment. No one seemed able to explain it. As publishers tried to capitalize on the phenomenon by rushing out new grammar rule books (or republishing old ones, like the campus classic "The Elements of Style," which has just been released with deeply charming illustrations by Maira Kalman), high-school English teachers ecstatically considered the possibility that people everywhere possess a long-suppressed passion for grammar. "O, to be an English teacher in the Age of Truss," the teacher-turned-novelist Frank McCourt noted adoringly in his foreword to the American edition of the book.

    Asked if he had any insight into the book's popularity, Andrew Franklin, whose tiny company, Profile Books, published it in Britain, appeared to give the question extended thought. "I have a theory," he finally said. "It's very sophisticated. My theory is that it sold well because lots of people bought it."

    Truss has just published her latest effort, and it, too, taps into the retro appeal of strict rules. The title offers its own mini-sermon: "Talk to the Hand: The Utter Bloody Rudeness of the World Today, or Six Good Reasons to Stay Home and Bolt the Door." The book's basic contention is that people in public places no longer bother to treat one another with even a semblance of Old World courtesy or respect. Writing in a tone of comic hyperbole, Truss claims that the "politeness words" - her term for "please," "thank you" and "excuse me" - have dwindled to the point of near extinction. Is there a scintilla of truth to her findings? Possibly not. In her book, Truss acknowledges the research of the British social anthropologist Kate Fox, who has conducted field experiments on politeness, like bumping into random pedestrians to see how many would say "Sorry." As it turned out, 80 percent apologized, and Fox concluded that manners have not declined.

    But Truss remains unconvinced, and in her book she adopts an isolationist policy; instead of proposing a new code of social diplomacy, she laments the violation of her personal space. The offenders, as she sees it, include smokers, graffiti artists, moviegoers who chat in theaters, bicyclists who ignore red lights and children on skateboards and the "breeders" who created them. She is nearly always "shocked," except when she is "incensed," and at times she aims her ire at such seemingly innocuous subjects as waiters who say "There you go" when they put a plate a food in front of her. Rudeness follows her like an unwanted companion even when she is up in the sky. "Air travelers on long-haul flights change into pajamas in the lavatories," she notes with typical disapproval, leading you to wonder if it would be better if they changed in the aisles.

    Truss probably exercises her satirical gifts to their best advantage in her analysis of automated phone systems, in which nonhuman operators have come to represent the last defenders of courtesy and decorum. Isn't it confusing, she asks in one passage, "that our biggest experience of formal politeness comes from the recorded voices on automated switchboards - who patently don't mean it? 'We are sorry we cannot connect you at this time,' says the voice. But does it sound sorry? No, it doesn't. It is just saying the politeness words in as many different combinations as it can think of. 'Please hold. Thank you for holding. We are sorry you are having to hold. We are sorry to say please. Excuse us for saying sorry."'

    The book, which lacks an index and is padded with anecdotes and sociological asides, makes no pretense of being exhaustive. It is not intended as a book of etiquette, and it is not instructive in the way that her book on punctuation is. Thus, if "Talk to the Hand" is to appeal to readers and become the mass sensation that its publishers assume it will be - in New York, Gotham Books, a division of Penguin, is running a first printing of 417,000 - it must do so as a comedic performance. And Truss, as a writer, does cast herself into a dramatic role, that of the moral scold, ill-tempered and loud-tongued, holding a high opinion of little besides her own opinions. It is hardly a new female type. You can take it back at least as far as Shakespeare's Kate, the tantrum-throwing, suitor-rejecting heroine of "The Taming of the Shrew," although Kate is probably too nuanced and sensitive a character to pass muster with her contemporary descendants.

    Lately, the archetype has enjoyed a resurgence, particularly on television, where game shows and news programs starring high-paid shrews can be described as either a new branch of entertainment or a deviant branch of feminism. There is Nancy Grace, hectoring her guests on CNN's "Headline News," or Anne Robinson, the host of the BBC's "Weakest Link," who interrogates hapless contestants with reform-school severity before beating up on the class dunce. Or Ann Coulter, the right-wing bully who seems too loud even when you mute the television. The scold is an innately comic figure, and Truss's achievement has been to elevate it into classically unfunny and fussy realms, namely that of punctuation and manners.

    o write a book on manners is to risk presenting yourself as an unattractive person, a sourpuss, a spirit-crusher, a crank at odds with the contemporary world. Truss is aware of this; she knows that her new book is not likely to endear her to a generation of adolescents who consider it the height of fashion to allow their underwear to peek out above the low-slung waistlines of their jeans. "It does, however, have to be admitted that the outrage reflex ('Oh, that's so RUDE!') presents itself in most people at just about the same time as their elbow skin starts to give out," Truss writes with typical informality. "Check your own elbow skin. If it snaps back into position after bending, you probably should not be reading this book."

    To be sure, most people, regardless of the precise elasticity of their flesh, would like to live in a world where everyone respects one another. Yet Americans have always harbored a suspicion of manners, which evoke visions of English history at its most hierarchical and hoity-toity - of dukes, earls, lords and viscounts tripping over one another in phony displays of deference and veneration. Who would want to live with all that kneeling and curtsying, all that monarchy-mandated fawning? Not the American revolutionaries, who believed that a fluid class democracy should subscribe instead to "republican manners" and promptly did away with titles.

    In our own time, the belief that manners reinforce social inequalities was key to the upheavals of the 60's, when the shaggy-haired counterculture broke every rule in Emily Post's book of etiquette. In the years since, American culture has become more tolerant of individual desires and differences, and one probably understudied side effect has been the blurring of private space and public space, of domestic life and street life. Activities once reserved for the privacy of your home (playing loud music, cursing, eating, wearing underwear as outerwear) now routinely occur on sidewalks. Some people see this as liberating; others denounce it as a pandemic of impoliteness. But bad manners are not necessarily all bad. In 1996, in an essay titled "Seduced by Civility," the critic Benjamin DeMott defended rudeness not only as a basic right but also as a necessary inducement to change and social progress.

    Indeed, who wouldn't rather live with incivility - with the curse words in rap songs and the excessive chatting in movie theaters - than with inequality? In her new book, Truss remains mostly silent on the subject, forgoing social analysis in favor of groaning about the status quo. Asked why she would be moved to write a book of manners in the first place, she said: "I always think of myself as a traditional liberal lefty, but I've just written a book about manners, so I do obviously have reactionary tendencies. I am shocked by the world."


    That comment was made on the afternoon we first met, at her home in Brighton, where she settled about a decade ago. She lives on a street closely packed with stucco houses, at the top of a steep hill, away from the rocky beach and the barefoot, libertine atmosphere that draws tourists to this old resort town. "What I have always liked about Brighton is its impersonality," she said, somewhat cryptically. "Since the 18th century, people have come, used the place and gone home again."

    Truss is a tall, large-boned woman of 50 with a helmet of blond hair and a booming voice, and on this August afternoon she was sunk into the enveloping fiber of a jumbo yellow chair, one of her two elderly cats, Buster, perched on the headrest. "He's a good boy, and he is my darling," she cooed. The interior of the house seems at once bookish and girlish, the sort of place where serious fiction and literary biographies share the shelves and table tops with a collection of bric-a-brac that includes miniature bottles of French perfume and a sculpture of two cats entwined in a kiss.

    Truss insists that her day-to-day life has remained basically unchanged since "Eats, Shoots & Leaves" lavished her with substantial income and attention. She still writes in a cluttered home office without the companionship of a secretary or an assistant, and on a typical night she eats her supper on a tray in front of the television. "My favorite thing in the world is a quiz show, 'University Challenge,"' she remarked with a straight face, "so you can see what kind of sad person I am."

    Nonetheless, as if eager to furnish evidence of a budding talent for hedonism, she went on to list the material pleasures to which she has lately succumbed. In the past year, trying to burn through her book royalties, she renovated the top floor of her house and purchased a Volkswagen convertible. In the real-estate department, she has paid off her mortgage ($240,000) and her mother's mortgage ($40,000) and rented a furnished pied-à-terre behind the British Museum in London, for $5,000 a month, in the hope of venturing out more. "I suppose it is playing with identity," she said of the apartment. "I want to be someone who doesn't spend all her time sitting home watching 'The Simpsons' on the telly. It is on between 7 and 8, and I watched it every night."

    An hour or so into our meeting, she remembered that she had hoped to prepare tea. Hurrying into the kitchen, she turned on an electric kettle and took out two PG Tips tea bags from a bulk-size box of 240. I was trying to calculate the number of months the box was likely to last when I realized that there is no table in her kitchen and no dining room in her three-story town house. Asked where she seats her dinner guests, she replied: "I don't have any guests. When I redesigned the kitchen, I thought a table just would have taken up too much space."

    Her solitary life, it became apparent, is one she has actively chosen. When I mentioned at one point that I was traveling with my family, she frowned with marked displeasure. "I don't know how you put up with it, your kids and all that," she remarked. "I don't think I have ever felt that I was with the person I wanted to marry. I am not against marriage. I lived with someone for 11 years. But we weren't in love, and I thought that was quite important. I am probably not very good at compromise, and I am bound to get worse."

    As the afternoon wore on, it was hard not to wonder how a woman who, by her own admission, eschews engagements of both the social and the emotional sort could claim to be an expert on human behavior, could find fault, as she writes in her book, with "a generation of people who seem, more than ever, not to know how to interact." On the other hand, there is no law that says a writer of a book deploring public rudeness must be gracious and thoughtful herself, anymore than a restaurant chef is obliged to prepare gourmet meals in his off hours at home or an internist is required to have annual checkups. Or so I thought, as Truss turned on the television during my visit and began watching a cricket match. "I was never into cricket particularly," she said by way of explanation, "but this is a very important test series."

    Truss does venture out from time to time, and invitations arrive steadily from people eager to have a cultural personage in their midst. Last year, she was summoned to a private garden party given by Queen Elizabeth II. It seemed like a great honor, until she arrived at Buckingham Palace, where she was one of some 8,000 guests to be offered a cup of tea and a sliver of cake as the queen lingered in the far distance. "Why would we queue up just to get a look at her?" Truss said.

    She has fared better with Tony and Cherie Blair, whom she recently met for the first time. On the morning of July 7, Truss was waiting to board a plane at Gatwick Airport when she heard the awful news about the rush-hour bombings. Undeterred, she continued on to Gleneagles, Scotland, where Cherie Blair was giving a dinner that night for the wives of the G-8 leaders. Despite the terrorist attack, the dinner proceeded as scheduled. According to Truss, she was seated beside Jenna Bush, who raved over "Eats, Shoots & Leaves" and insisted that reading is one of her great passions.


    Born in 1955, the second of two daughters, Truss grew up in a working-class household in Richmond, just west of London. She speaks of her childhood as if it were an unpleasant obligation from which she tried to extricate herself as soon as opportunity permitted. Her family lived in a so-called council house, a red-brick row house owned by the government, and her mother worked as a maid.

    "My parents weren't terribly happy," Truss told me matter-of-factly. "They weren't particularly fond of one another, and they just had arguments and things. My mother was very disappointed in my father, who was a negative person. He didn't expect to have a great career. When I was about 15, he started an egg route and went around and sold eggs from a van. But he didn't keep it up. By the time people were getting them, they were very old eggs."

    Perhaps the anecdote says less about her father's passivity than about her own determination, her industry and self-reliance, her lack of debt, her refusal to own a kitchen table at which to while away the empty hours swilling tea. Asked if her parents pushed her to succeed, she shook her head and said: "No. My achievement thing is more about rejecting my family and going out there and doing it for its own sake."

    She studied at University College London, which, as someone once pointed out, could use a comma in its name. After graduation, she went into journalism, working as a literary editor at the Listener, as a television critic for The Times of London and even as a sports columnist at the same paper. "It was an interesting phase of my life," she said of her four years covering sports, "but it did throw me off course. I was concerned that watching sports might produce testosterone. I really did worry about turning into a bloke. I noticed that I was leaving towels on the floor."

    In 2000, she quit her job at The Times and turned her attention to radio, composing both original monologues narrated by actors and humor pieces she narrated herself for Radio 4, the BBC arts station. "Eats, Shoots & Leaves" was initially conceived as a spinoff from a five-part radio program on punctuation, "Cutting a Dash," and her new book, too, began life on the airwaves.

    There were also three comic novels, which were published in London in the 90's and have just been released in this country for the first time, in a bulky paperback titled "The Lynne Truss Treasury." Although her fiction has sold "nothing," as she says, it is solid and assured in its cleverness, and at times it can put you in mind of the verbal exuberance of P.G. Wodehouse.

    I was curious about the scale of her literary ambition, wondering if she sees herself as an essayist and humorist who has lately been blessed with commercial success, or rather as an unfulfilled novelist, an artist who still dreams of adding an object of beauty to the world. She has not received much acclaim in literary circles. When "Eats, Shoots & Leaves" was published in this country, Louis Menand lambasted it in The New Yorker as a sloppy work riddled with errors. In her new book on manners, Truss mentions The New Yorker review, claiming that she never read it and quoting her London publisher, who describes Menand as a "tosser," tosser being one of those British pejoratives whose meaning seems destined to elude Americans.

    "You have to take yourself very seriously to get the respect of certain people," Truss said, reflecting on her reputation among the literary elite, "and I do not take myself all that seriously. I undermine myself constantly. I write so many different things."

    Of all her books and essays, Truss described her 1996 novel, "Tennyson's Gift," as "the best thing I have ever done." Set in 1864, on the Isle of Wight, it sends up various eminent and artistically inclined Victorians, particularly the poet laureate of its title, an unrepentant egomaniac who recites his own verses to his furniture as his invalid wife hides his bad reviews in teapots or buries them in the garden.

    Getting up from her chair, Truss opened a cabinet where she keeps extra copies of her own books. Out came a paperback. Might she sign it for her visitor? She obliged, then chuckled as she closed the book. "This is terrible," she said, presumably referring to her inscription. "I'll do another one for you when I know you better." Who could have guessed that that book would inspire an act of rebellion less than an hour later?

    eaving her house around 6, I headed along a steeply sloping street that ran down to the waterfront, to the large white hotels and lacy cast-iron balconies that overlook the sea. By a pleasant coincidence, I had just stepped into the lobby of my hotel when I spotted someone I knew bounding toward the entrance, a novelist who lives in Manhattan, a tall, tautly muscled man with a shock of bleached hair. Michael Cunningham, as it turned out, was making the rounds in England to promote his new novel, the ambitious, Whitman-inspired "Specimen Days," and had stopped in Brighton for all of one night to read at a local library.

    And what twist of fate had brought me to Brighton? he asked, as he lighted a cigarette. I told him about my visit to the house up the hill, showing him the novel I happened to be holding. He leafed through a few pages until his gaze fell on the inscription.

    This is what it said in a large, bouncy script: "With all best wishes, Lynne Truss."

    It seemed harmless enough, but what followed was nearly unbelievable. He ripped the page from its spine, crumpled it into a ball and popped it into his mouth. He stood there chewing it, as if it were a piece of tough meat, perhaps realizing for the first time that paper is not easily pulverized.

    "I don't know what came over me," he said a few moments later, after he had removed the page from his mouth. "The inscription was so bland and generic, all I could think of to do is rip it out. She had just talked to someone for four hours, someone who had come from another continent. Writing is her business. She can come up with something a little more exciting."

    Perhaps there was something about being in England that had encouraged him to act out the role of the lawless American, to be free and incorrigible in a country that runs toward the rule-bound and civil (even if British civility exists nowhere more brilliantly than it does as a fantasy in the minds of Americans). Or perhaps the notion of a book on grammar had elicited in him a shiver of memory so sharp that he had momentarily felt himself slip back in time, a schoolboy enraged by the constraints of authority. But probably it was nothing as complicated as a clash between cultures or generations. This wasn't literature, it was merely life, and the truth is, he is a vivid person with a restless mind that chews up everything in sight.


    The next day, meeting with Truss again, I told her about my encounter with Cunningham and the torn-out page, curious to hear how she would assess this gross breach of etiquette.

    "Now why would he do an odd thing like that?" she asked cautiously.

    He is a wild spirit, I replied, a runaway horse. "Well," she concluded, "he obviously can't be that wild if he agreed to go on a book tour!"

    At the time, we were in her Volkswagen convertible. The day was bright and cloudless, and we were zipping through the verdant countryside toward Charleston, a remote 18th-century farmhouse enshrined in Bloomsbury lore. In the years following World War I, Vanessa Bell lived in the house amid predictable bohemian chaos, sharing the premises with her children and Duncan Grant, her fellow artist and occasional lover. Every inch of the house bears the imprint of its former occupants, who covered the walls with fantastic murals and obsessively painted the doors, fireplaces and furniture as well, slathering pigment on virtually everything except their pets.

    When Truss and I pulled up outside the stone farmhouse, a group of black-spotted cows were grazing. There was no one in sight, and the parking lot was nearly empty. Truss groaned when she saw a sign announcing the hours of operation. Although she had recently been invited to join the board of Charleston, she had forgotten that it is closed on Tuesdays.

    Sitting down on a wood-slatted bench overlooking the lily pond, in the warm late-summer sun, she wondered what we should do. As if to compensate for the disappointment of not being able to see any paintings, she eventually decided we should go somewhere else; the idea was to pay a spontaneous visit to two friends of hers who own an antiquarian bookshop.

    Within an hour, we were in the medieval village of Alfriston, walking along the old cobblestones of High Street, with its thatched cottages and ivy-laden ruins and weathered beauty. When we reached Much Ado Books, Truss gently pushed on the black-painted wooden door. It failed to swing open. Realizing that her friends had closed up early, she suggested that we walk to their house, a few blocks away. Again, no one answered.

    Driving back to Brighton late that afternoon, she chuckled over our futile outing. Three places, all of them closed. It had been a day of bolted doors and darkened windows, of shadows and silence. Yet in some ways, the experience - in itself a repudiation of experience, a temporary estrangement from the consolations of paintings and books and friends - seemed entirely apt, affirming the supposed British tendency to remain closed off and shut down to any display of feeling.

    For what are manners, anyhow, but a distancing device, a mechanism for widening the spaces between people? As Truss writes in her new book, citing the research of the sociolinguists P. Brown and S.C. Levinson, "One of the great principles of manners, especially in Britain, is respecting someone else's right to be left alone, unmolested, undisturbed."

    Now, as she sped along the winding road back toward Brighton, the wind flapping in her hair, Truss said: "I think the British are much ruder than Americans. Someone once said that British politeness is about keeping people at arm's length and American politeness is genuinely about wanting to be friendly. I think I've written about manners from the British point of view.

    "We aren't direct," Truss went on in a vexed tone. "We are known for not saying what we mean, for being ironic, and we use the word 'ironic' to cover anything. We are always covering ourselves, and then we wonder why people don't understand what we are saying. It is a fault in the British people."

    Even now, as she critiqued the British penchant for indirectness, it was unclear if she was being fully direct. Was she in fact speaking for the entire population of Britain, as she claimed, or rather referring, in a reflexively veiled and oblique way, to the limitations of her own ironic self? Perhaps she felt a twinge of remorse, regretted her careful life, the fixation on good punctuation and good manners, the compulsion to correct, to mock those around her. Was she sorry she had faced the world shielded in an armor of humor?

    Posed the question, she reflected in silence, as if preparing to bare her soul. But in fact she did no such thing.

    "While I was writing the book, I hardly went out," she said in her usual droll tone. "It was quite interesting, because when I did go out, people would be courteous, and I would think: For goodness sake, I'm only out for half an hour. Be rude to me! I've got to get material! I met any number of very charming and helpful assistants in shops. It was kind of galling to be presented with so much counterevidence."

    Deborah Solomon, a contributing writer for the magazine, is completing a book on Norman Rockwell.

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    'Memories of My Melancholy Whores'








    Caleb Bach/Knopf

    Gabriel García Márquez

    November 22, 2005
    Books of The Times | 'Memories of My Melancholy Whores'
    He Wants to Die Alone, but First . . .
    By MICHIKO KAKUTANI

    "Memories of My Melancholy Whores" is ballyhooed by its publishers as the first work of fiction by Gabriel García Márquez in 10 years.

    It turns out not to have been worth the wait.

    After the author's magical portrait of his own youth and apprenticeship in a classic memoir ("Living to Tell the Tale," 2003), this very slight novella - a longish short story, really - plays like a halfhearted exercise in storytelling, published simply to mark time. Like the entries in his 1993 collection "Strange Pilgrims," this tale demonstrates that the shorter form of the story does not lend itself to Mr. García Márquez's talents: his penchant for huge, looping, elliptical narratives that move back and forth in time is cramped in this format, as is his desire to map the panoramic vistas of an individual's entire life. The fertile inventiveness that animated his masterpiece "One Hundred Years of Solitude" is decidedly muted in these pages, and the reverence for the mundane realities of ordinary life, showcased in more recent works, seems attenuated as well. As a result, "Memories of My Melancholy Whores" feels like a brittle little fable composed on automatic pilot.

    For some time now Mr. García Márquez has been interested in writing from the vantage point of old age, and this story takes that impulse to an extreme. Its narrator, a former scholar known by his students as Prof. Gloomy Hills, is turning 90 and decides to celebrate his birthday by having sex with a young virgin. He places a call to the madam of his favorite brothel and makes arrangements to spend the night with a 14-year-old girl. In the course of recounting the relationship he develops with this girl, whom he calls Delgadina, the old man also ruminates about "the miseries" of his "misguided life."

    Prof. Gloomy Hills, we learn, lives in his parents' house, proposing "to die alone, in the same bed in which I was born and on a day that I hope will be distant and painless." In addition to having taught Spanish and Latin grammar, he served for 40 years as the cable editor at El Diario de La Paz, a job that involved "reconstructing and completing in indigenous prose the news of the world that we caught as it flew through sidereal space on shortwaves or in Morse code." He now scrapes by on his pension "from that extinct profession," combined with the even more meager sums he earns writing a weekly column.

    In his nine decades of life, the narrator has never had any close friends or intimate relationships. "I have never gone to bed with a woman I didn't pay," he says, "and the few who weren't in the profession I persuaded, by argument or by force, to take money even if they threw it in the trash. When I was 20 I began to keep a record listing name, age, place, and a brief notation on the circumstances and style of lovemaking. By the time I was fifty there were 514 women with whom I had been at least once. I stopped making the list when my body no longer allowed me to have so many and I could keep track of them without paper."

    Such passages read like a sad parody of Mr. García Márquez's radiant 1988 novel "Love in the Time of Cholera," which chronicled love (not just sex) in all its myriad varieties. Worse, we receive no insight into why the narrator has led such a libertine but lonely existence, no insight into why he has never examined his inner life.

    All this changes, we are asked to believe, when Prof. Gloomy Hills meets Delgadina and, for the first time in his life, falls in love. He does not touch her that first night, nor the next night, nor the one after. Instead, he simply watches as she sleeps next to him on the bed - exhausted from her day job at a factory, and overcome by the valerian potion the madam has given her to calm her nerves.

    As the narrator becomes increasingly obsessed with this innocent young woman - who, truth be told, does little ever but doze in his presence - fantasy and dreamlike hallucinations begin to take over. After one imagined exchange with her, he says: "From then on I had her in my memory with so much clarity that I could do what I wanted with her. I changed the color of her eyes according to my state of mind: the color of water when she woke, the color of syrup when she laughed, the color of light when she was annoyed. I dressed her according to the age and condition that suited my changes of mood: a novice in love at 20, a parlor whore at 40, the queen of Babylon at 70, a saint at 100."

    The narrator imagines that Delgadina has been to his house and prepared him breakfast. Later he flies into a jealous rage, convinced - with hardly any evidence - that she has been sleeping with other men. He assiduously courts her with flowers and presents, and reads books like "The Little Prince" to her as she sleeps. "We continued," he says, "with Perrault's Tales, Sacred History, the Arabian Nights in a version sanitized for children, and because of the differences among them I realized that her sleep had various levels of profundity depending on her interest in the readings."

    The relationship between the narrator and his virgin is really a relationship that exists inside the narrator's head, and since Mr. García Márquez makes little effort to make this man remotely interesting - as either an individual or a representative figure - it's hard for the reader to care really about what happens. Moreover, the trajectory of this narrative turns out to be highly predictable, leading to a banal ending to a banal story that's quite unworthy of the great Gabriel García Márquez's prodigious talents.

    Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top

  • Google On Overdrive




    November 18, 2005


    Market Place

    Rapid Rise: Google Passes $400 a Share




    Google became a verb before it became a public company. Now it has also become a $400 stock.


    Just 15 months after the company went public in an unusual auction at $85 a share, which was less than the company had hoped and was widely viewed as disappointing, Google traded yesterday above $400 for the first time, closing at $403.45, up $5.30. The gain helped lift the Nasdaq composite index, which rose 1.5 percent, to 2,220.46, to its highest close since June 2001.


    Just five weeks ago, Google shares were trading below $300, but a surprisingly strong profit report sent bullish analysts back to their calculators to come up with even more optimistic forecasts, and investors swarmed in.


    "It is more psychological than anything," said John Tinker, an analyst with ThinkEquity Partners in New York. "There aren't too many $400 stocks out there."


    But Mr. Tinker noted that one explanation for the auction when the company went public was to give every individual investor a chance to get in, and not splitting the stock now may not serve that purpose. "The perception is that it is hard for individual investors to buy $400 stocks."


    At the close, Google was valued at $119 billion, and the stock is now up 302 percent from $100.33, where it closed the first day of trading in August 2004. It is nearly double the value of its rival Yahoo, which has a value of $59.9 billion.


    Google is valued higher than Coca-Cola, Cisco Systems or Amgen, and is deemed to be worth more than the combined value of McDonald's, DuPont and Anheuser-Busch. Its founders, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, and its chief executive, Eric E. Schmidt, have sold billions of dollars of their shareholdings.


    Not bad for a company whose revenues over the last four quarters totaled $5.3 billion, well below Disney's revenue for any single quarter in the last seven years.


    By one standard - that of price per share - Google is the most successful initial public offering since the Internet bubble burst in 2000.


    But that reflects both the fact that it came out at a very high price, while most new offers are priced under $40, and the fact that Google, like Warren E. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, eschews stock splits. Google is in no danger of replacing Berkshire as the highest-priced stock in the United States. Berkshire closed yesterday at $89,700.


    High prices were a feature of the Internet bubble, but many did not end well. Henry Blodget, then an analyst with CIBC Oppenheimer, gained fame in late 1998 for forecasting that Amazon.com, then trading around $240, would hit $400.


    It never did, but that was because a stock split intervened. Adjusted for the split, the stock took just three weeks to get to the equivalent of $400, and it kept rising from there. The shares peaked in late 1999 at $113, or the equivalent of $678 when Mr. Blodget made his forecast. They later fell to under $10, but now are back to about $46, a little above the level when Mr. Blodget spoke up.


    A company called Commerce One, which was supposed to be a pioneer in business-to-business Internet, was one of the hottest new offerings of 1999, nearly tripling on the first day of trading, closing at $61 on July 1. It went above $400 on Dec. 8 and peaked on Dec. 23 at $625.50, a gain of more than 900 percent from the first-day close.


    Last month the company went into liquidation, with shareholders getting a few pennies per share.


    When Google put out its earnings on Oct. 21, the stock leaped $36.70, to $339.90, and analysts from Piper Jaffray, UBS, RBC Capital Markets and First Albany raised their price targets to more than $400, and other analysts raised the targets to $400.


    Of all the offerings since the end of 2000, Google ranks No. 10 in terms of appreciation from the first-day close, according to calculations by Thomson Financial.


    The leader is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which almost made it to $400 before Google did. Last week it traded as high as $394.80, but it slipped back and closed at $378.25 yesterday, up 782 percent from its first-day close of $42.90 in 2002.


    Eric Dash contributed reporting for this article.





  • Valentino Rossi




    World champ on possible switch from two wheels to four
    (ANSA) - Monza, November 21 - MotoGP world champion Valentino Rossi has made it plain that he will only abandon motorbikes for Formula 1 cars if he thinks he can win .

    Speaking after an impressive performance at the wheel of a rally car at the weekend, Rossi indicated that he is still weighing his options, aware that success in F1 would require more experience than he now has .

    The 26-year-old champ implicitly dismissed the notion that he might dive into F1 either just for the thrill or because his presence would generate millions of dollars even without victories .

    "If I were to take this big step, I would do it to win," he said, when quizzed by reporters who turned out in droves to watch him race in a rally event in Monza .

    Rossi has tried his hand at the wheel of a Ferrari F1 car several times now, most recently 10 days ago, when he put in three days of testing at the Italian team's two tracks .

    Pushed for a hint of whether those days on the track had helped him make up his mind, the popular young star remained tight-lipped. "I have nothing to say for the moment. I had a go, it went well, but Formula 1 is a long road that requires proper preparation." Rossi stressed he was not going to be rushed into making a switch which F1 promoters, ever struggling to boost audiences, would be thrilled about. Clearly weary of the continual questions about his intentions, he repeated that he was going to take his time. "It's the only way I know how to do things." On his experiences at the Monza Rally, where he won an exhibition event and drove his 200-hp Subaru Impreza to second place in the race itself, the motorcycling legend was much more talkative .

    "This is the fourth time I've taken part in this race and I must say I've got much better. I'd like to race in a real rally, although not in a World Cup race. That would put too much pressure on me." His opponents in Monza included several established, professional rally car drivers. Among them was former World Rally champion Colin McRae. Rossi, now enjoying his winter break from the MotoGP circuit, reportedly performed well at the Ferrari-owned Mugello track earlier this month, at the wheel of Michael Schumacher's 2004 car .

    There has been persistent speculation in the media that Rossi, who has now won five successive titles in motorcycling's top class, could some day race Formula 1 cars for Ferrari .

    Ferrari Chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo has frequently said the door is open for Rossi, leaving Italian sports fans licking their lips at the idea that an Italian might once again win a F1 title in a Ferrari .

    The last person to do this was Alberto Ascari in 1953 .

    Rossi, who has little left to prove in MotoGP, is believed to be attracted by the challenge of successfully making a switch which only one man, Britain's John Surtees, has ever done before .

    Surtees won four world motorcycling titles before switching to cars in 1960. In 1964, at the age of 30, he won a world title driving a Ferrari .

    Rossi recently signed a contract to race another year with his current team, Yamaha, but after that his future is uncertain .


    © Copyright ANSA. All rights reserved 2005-11-21 16:03











  • Health Care Crisis




    Mike Mergen for The New York Times

    A surgeon at Harrisburg Hospital in Pennsylvania, one of a small group of hospitals forging ties with doctors to save money.

    November 18, 2005
    To Fight Rising Costs, Hospitals Seek Allies in the Operating Room
    By REED ABELSON
    It is a war on rising hospital costs, being fought one tiny balloon at a time. And as with most wars, some of the tactics are controversial.

    Until recently, some cardiologists at the PinnacleHealth System hospital group in Pennsylvania would inflate a new artery-opening balloon each time they inserted a stent into a patient's clogged arteries. Now, if they can, these doctors will use a single balloon throughout a patient's procedure.

    That simple step, which the doctors say poses no additional risk to patients, saves at least a couple of hundred dollars a procedure. And - here lies the controversy - the doctors share in any money they save the hospital. While the new approach gives them a financial incentive to be more cost- conscious, it also fundamentally recasts the traditional arm's-length relationship between a hospital and the doctors who practice there.

    Without the special approval that PinnacleHealth has received from federal health regulators, such an arrangement would run afoul of longstanding rules meant to prevent hospitals from paying doctors to skimp on care or to steer patients their way. Similar experiments have been allowed at a handful of other hospitals around the country, but regulators are evaluating each plan case by case. HCA, the nation's biggest hospital chain, has proposed its own version of a savings program that has met resistance from some surgeons, and regulators have not yet weighed in.

    PinnacleHealth says it saved 5 percent last year in cardiology supplies by conserving on balloons and getting cardiologists to agree, when feasible, to use stents, pacemakers and other cardiac devices that it pays at a negotiated volume discount. Those savings equaled about $1 million, which the hospital split with the participating doctors.

    "A lot of it is just common sense," said Dr. Ken May, whose 17-doctor cardiology practice is among the groups involved.

    But hospital administrators and consultants say getting doctors to agree to use certain brands or waste fewer supplies can be difficult. The only way to make doctors cost-sensitive, the hospitals say, is to pay them to pay attention.

    The experiments are known as gainsharing in the industry, and while no one expects that alone to bring health care inflation to heel, it is gaining momentum. There is talk in Congress of relaxing some of the current prohibitions.

    Regulators and others still worry that such programs, if not designed properly, could induce doctors to put money matters ahead of the interests of patients. Representative Pete Stark, a California Democrat, has described Congressional enthusiasm for gainsharing as "not only misguided" but "potentially dangerous."

    But many economists and health care experts say something needs to change. The soaring cost of medical devices - and major advances like drug-coated stents designed to keep arteries open better than stents without such coating - is a big reason that hospital care has become the largest component of the nation's nearly $2 trillion annual health bill.

    "There's so much pressure to reduce costs across the board in health care, I would be surprised if this doesn't get traction," said Dara A. Corrigan, a former official in the inspector general's office of the federal Department of Health and Human Services. She is now a lawyer representing drug companies and device makers at Arnold & Porter in Washington.

    As relations between doctors and hospitals have grown increasingly strained in recent years, many doctors now have closer ties to device makers, who sometimes pay them consulting fees, than to the hospitals, which must purchase the devices and swallow any portion of the price they cannot pass along to patients and insurers.

    Often, hospitals say, they cannot negotiate better deals with device makers because too many doctors refuse to switch brands or to consider using anything but the most sophisticated models, even when a less expensive device might work as well. Without new approaches like PinnacleHealth's, the doctors, paid separately for their services, typically have no reason to care about prices.

    "There has to be some way a hospital can get physicians involved," said Joane H. Goodroe, a consultant who has worked with all seven of the hospitals that have received regulatory approval to conduct the experiments to share savings. Besides PinnacleHealth Systems, the other hospitals include St. Joseph's Hospital in Atlanta and Sisters of Charity Providence Hospitals in Columbia, S.C.

    Gainsharing's critics include device makers, whose profits are threatened if hospitals are able to demand better prices.

    "We believe that gainsharing would have an immediate and significant negative effect on public health by encouraging the use of the least expensive option without consideration of long-term effects or overall health economics," said Martin J. Emerson, chief executive of American Medical Systems, a maker of pelvic devices based in Minnetonka, Minn.

    He was speaking last month at a Congressional hearing convened by Representative Nancy L. Johnson, a Connecticut Republican. Not persuaded, Ms. Johnson plans to introduce legislation making it easier for hospitals and doctors to cooperate.

    Federal officials do remain concerned, though, that doctors might reduce care to increase their own share of the savings. Regulators now carefully evaluate each hospital's plan, and many hospitals shy away from gainsharing because of the legal thicket, even when they think the idea makes sense.

    "It's taking money from the manufacturers and giving it to the attorneys and consultants," said Kathleen Killeen, an administrator for HealthEast Care System in St. Paul.

    For PinnacleHealth, the experiment is in its second year at the system's flagship, Harrisburg Hospital, in Pennsylvania's state capital. Doctors still have the ability to choose any device, but the hospital has worked with them to focus on a handful of companies that provide the bulk of the products used. The discounts are negotiated with that core group of manufacturers, and any savings from using less expensive devices are shared with doctors.

    "We pick out vendors that have very good products and very good history," said Dr. May, the cardiologist. Doctors are still able to try new devices, he said, and because the contracts run for only a year, the physicians can change their minds.

    Under its agreements with the device makers, PinnacleHealth cannot disclose which companies it uses or the prices it pays for devices. But the hospital said it was able to negotiate lower prices on many devices, saving about $370 for a pacemaker system, for example.

    The eventual goal of these new cooperative programs with doctors is to develop certain standards of care, said Dr. Roger Longenderfer, the chief executive of PinnacleHealth. In one case, he said, doctors were able to identify patients suitable for smaller incisions when inserting a catheter, avoiding the need for a special vascular clamp costing a couple of hundred dollars. The hospital reduced the number of patients getting those devices to 30 percent from 40 percent, Dr. Longenderfer said.

    To deter doctors from using cheaper devices simply to improve the overall savings, regulators have required PinnacleHealth and other pilot programs to develop guidelines indicating when more sophisticated and expensive devices are necessary, said Ms. Goodroe, the consultant. Doctors are not paid, for example, if they save money by implanting single-chamber defibrillators in patients who should be getting the costlier dual-chamber models.

    And to reduce the likelihood of any one doctor's becoming a cost-cutting zealot to amass large individual savings, the hospitals dispense the payouts to the medical practices - not directly to individual doctors.

    Dr. Longenderfer estimates that participating cardiologists earned an additional $10,000 to $15,000 each last year through gainsharing payouts from their group practices, although the practices decided how to allocate the money.

    But not all plans are alike. The HCA approach rewards doctors individually, according to documents that outline the program to the orthopedic surgeons who practice at HCA's hospitals.

    And unlike the gainsharing plans already approved by regulators, the HCA program strictly limits the doctors' choices to three manufacturers: Stryker, DePuy and Zimmer. "Your surgeon or doctor cannot use what he thinks is best for you," said one surgeon, who spoke on the condition he not be identified because he practices at an HCA hospital. He argued that devices made by other companies might be better for some patients.

    But HCA says that its three chosen manufacturers, the largest in the industry, make a full range of devices, and that doctors who are doing repair work on a patient who has already undergone surgery are free to use whatever brand device the task requires. The company says it needs to limit its pool of suppliers to negotiate better prices.

    "If you try to go out and contract with all vendors, you're going to get list price" with no discounts, said James A. Fitzgerald, a senior purchasing executive for HCA. Doctors who insist on using another brand can also petition HCA for an exception, he said.

    Under the HCA plan, an orthopedic surgeon stands to get 20 percent of any savings, if the doctor had been using a different brand but switched to a preferred device. If the surgeon was already using a preferred device, the doctor earns 15 percent of those savings. A physician who performs 30 hip implants a year, for example, saving $1,200 per surgery, stands to make $7,200 through gainsharing, the documents show.

    Such incentives make some surgeons uncomfortable, and the surgeon at the HCA hospital said he would prefer the money go to charity. HCA says it designed its program to motivate doctors but would work with federal regulators if they had concerns. So far, more than 200 surgeons at its hospitals have agreed to participate, and about 40 surgeons have switched brands. (Pending the plan's regulatory approval, HCA will not distribute any of the money to the doctors.)

    It is debatable whether doctors can generate enough savings year after year to make it worth continuing gainsharing programs, even if they do catch on. To make sure the payments are only for gainsharing, regulators are requiring that savings be recalculated annually - meaning doctors would need to find new ways to reduce costs each year to generate new money for the hospitals to share.

    With costs soaring, savings are fairly easy to achieve in the early going. But Dr. Longenderfer acknowledges that savings at PinnacleHealth are likely to be lower in the second year. He adds, though, that there is still ample opportunity to come up with more efficient ways of practicing medicine. "We're just beginning to scratch the surface," he said.

    Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top



     







    The Sexual Revolution Online






    You're Only a Newbie Once 

    By Regina Lynn

    Story location: http://www.wired.com/news/culture/0,1284,69600,00.html



    02:00 AM Nov. 18, 2005 PT


    Researching last week's column about adult webcam chat made me nostalgic for the online community I used to belong to. The conversations in the webAffairs book could have taken place in my chat room, and I examined the screenshots closely to see if I recognized any faces or other body parts.


    And yet, the most familiar theme in the book was the author's personal experience. She started modestly, became a cybersex diva, then found a balance point between those two extremes. She's still a regular in her community, but spends less time online, and her chat buddies are integrated into her life like any other friends.




    Sex Drive columnist Regina Lynn
    Sex Drive

    It's almost exactly what happened to me when I delved into adult chat. Some of you can relate, I'm sure.


    You're a newbie for about a week. Then you become a "reg" and you spend as much time as you can in the room, bonding with people and flirting and cybering.


    And then you level off. Maybe it's that you've slaked the need that brought you there in the first place. But you balance yourself between virtual space and physical space, and you find ways to fit everything and everyone into your life without making yourself crazy.


    It might take some people two months and others two years or longer, but eventually, most of us get there. (If you can find your balance before you rip your existing relationship apart, so much the better. Unless of course the relationship is in sore need of ripping. But that's another column.)


    My old chat room no longer exists, so I know I literally cannot go back. My life is not where it was back then, either.


    Last time, a 12-year relationship was coming to an end. I had just started freelance writing full-time, paying my dues with high-volume, low-profit gigs like writing horoscopes and website descriptions for human-edited search engines.


    It wasn't hard to keep IRC open in the bottom right corner of my screen and still produce quality content. (Honestly, having company helped me get through some of the more mind-numbing aspects of the daily word churn.)


    Now, I have writing assignments that challenge me and a relationship that suits me well. I'm active in a dozen online discussion groups -- including the Sex Drive forum -- and I have 100 people on my Trillian contact list, 41 of whom are online right now.


    And yet, I really miss the group energy of the chat room. I miss the freedom to say whatever's on my mind, no matter how ridiculous or how sexual. And I wondered whether a new online community could give me those things -- and whether it would be worth the black hole it could become on my time.


    I reactivated myself in Second Life to find out. And even as I write this column, I'm dancing with a group of other folks in a virtual saloon in another window. (If I suddenly lose my train of thought and shout "Oh yeah!" you now know why.)


    A quick primer for the newbies: Second Life is not so much a game as it is a place, although it has games in it. (Some would argue with me on this; see this explanation.) You represent yourself with a 3-D avatar and can pretty much build yourself a complete life in this online world.


    And unlike plain vanilla webcam chat -- or the ancient medium of text chat -- you have lots of things to view, build, buy, sell and otherwise interact with that may or may not involve interacting with other people.


    I chose Second Life because it represents the modern incarnation of the chat room I frequented. What you can build visually in Second Life, we created with text and imagination in IRC.


    I met a nice woman who gave me cool clothes to keep in my inventory, so I can change outfits whenever I want without going through the hassle of shopping. Another woman gave me a winged horse (a "flyable Pegasus," in Second Life parlance), to make traveling more fun. A few people have added me to their Friends lists, and two have granted me a "positive" rating.


    I'm chatting, I'm joking, I'm flirting. And while I have yet to engage in cybersex, I'm having a great time.


    What I'm not doing is walking around all stunned by a new realm of possibility, opportunity, novelty. The realities of online community and virtual space are not new to me, although the graphics and individual people are.


    What I find in Second Life is that I'm comfortable. I know how to make friends. I enjoy talking with people. I'll slip easily into the adult content when I have time to do it right.


    I might even choose to decline a physical world invitation now and then in order to spend time online. But it's not going to take over my life, and it's not going to threaten my relationship.


    I can't go back to the innocent times when everything was new. But now I realize that I don't want to.


    By now I've not only "been there, done that" in cyberspace, I've folded those experiences into the rest of my life. I'm a better lover, a better friend and a better writer because of it.


    Because, of course, the one thing virtual space and physical place have in common are you. And you can't undo an experience, like it or not. What's that old saying -- wherever you go, there you are?


    So in that sense, no, I don't think you can go back after you leave adult chat. Just like you can't go back to being a virgin, or to being 17 (thank goodness).


    But you can return to adult community with the maturity gained through experience and bring a deeper appreciation -- and hopefully, well-honed skills -- to the new neighborhood. Which, now that this column is written, I'm going to do right now.


    Oh yeah.


    See you next Friday,


    Regina Lynn


    Regina Lynn is the author of The Sexual Revolution 2.0. You can e-mail her at ginalynn@gmail.com if you promise to be patient about getting a reply.


    End of story














  • Today's Blogs


    Searching for Zarqawi
    By David Wallace-Wells
    Posted Monday, Nov. 21, 2005, at 4:50 PM ET


    Bloggers discuss rumors that terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is dead, as well as news that Ariel Sharon is leaving his Likud Party to forge a new, liberal party. At the Huffington Post, Arianna Huffington mobilizes anti-Wal-Mart sentiment.


    Searching for Zarqawi: The Jerusalem Post reports that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the senior al-Qaida leader in Iraq, might have died in a group suicide Sunday, when eight terrorists surrounded by coalition forces performing a raid purportedly blew themselves up in Mosul. U.S. officials downplayed the possibility, but the military is conducting DNA tests nonetheless.


    "I'm not even religious," writes Andy O'Reilly at The World Wide Rant. "But I'm almost willing to pray this is true. … I generally don't wish death upon anyone, but I'll make an exception for al-Zarqawi. Here's hoping it's good riddance."


    Conservative Kevin Aylward is also ready to believe. "One fact in support of the theory that al-Zarqawi's luck may have finally run out is the vow from Jordan's King Abdullah II to 'take the fight' to … the Jordanian born al-Zarqawi," he writes at Wizbang. "With active engagement from Jordan's security and intelligence forces it's not hard to believe that al-Zarqawi's location could have been pinpointed."


    "It would be great if this rumor turned out to be true, but at this time it remains unconfirmed and it seems that rumors like this are rarely confirmed," cautions conservative homemaker PoliPundit Lorie Byrd. Others harbor more substantive doubts. At the Counterterrorism Blog, Evan Kohlman reports that an al-Qaida supporter, claiming to know the identities of those killed, denies that Zarqawi was among the dead. "Certainly, Al-Qaida doesn't seem to have been at all fazed by the reported Mosul raid," he observes.


    Attorney John Hinderaker of conservative coterie Power Line is also skeptical. "The larger point, however, is that this is one more in a long series of successes against the terrorists: eight more of them have bitten the dust, probably based on intelligence received from the local population"


    Some on the American left caution against what they see as premature, and overly militaristic, triumphalism. "The death if Zarqawi would be a positive step in fighting terrorism and, one hopes, suppressing the violence in Iraq," suggests prominent contributor Armando at liberal war room Daily Kos. "What it will not be however, is a solution for our troubles in Iraq, whose roots are political in nature," he says. "Zarqawi is not and has not been the source of our troubles in Iraq. It is the intractable political problems of the sectarian power struggle between Shia, Sunni and Kurd."


    At Informed Comment, Middle East academic Juan Cole agrees, describing Zarqawi as merely a functionary. "If al-Zarqawi died or were captured, there would be many increasinlgy experienced guerrilla fighters to take his place," he writes. "Guerrilla movements … are social movements, and do not typically depend on one man."


    Many bloggers are cheering a related story. Dr. Rusty Shackleford of My Pet Jawa, libertarian Glenn Reynolds of InstaPundit, and many more point to heartening news that, in half-page newspaper advertisements Sunday, Zarqawi's family publicly disowned him.


    Read more about Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.


    Sharon's third way: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon announced today that he was leaving the ruling Likud Party to establish a new, liberal party dedicated to the pursuit of "peace and tranquility" in the region. Sharon asked Israeli President Moshe Katsov to dissolve Parliament so that new elections could be held.


    "It's about time," approves Zionist watchdog J. of Justify This! At Talking Points Memo, discriminating liberal Joshua Micah Marshall calls the developments "tectonic plates moving in Israeli politics…ones that seem likely to have deep repercussions throughout the region and even in the world."


    Sharon is apparently hoping to further jettison the settler base he alienated earlier this year with his decision to pull out of Gaza, suggests Patrick al-Kafir, waging war on jihad at Clarity & Resolve. "I think he may win this coming March, and I think this current maneuver is pretty shrewd—ingenious, actually. He's got a vision to settle this Arab/Islamic terror issue once and for all, I think, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him transform that vision into reality." Meryl Yourish, a conservative Jewish teacher and techie living in Richmond, Va., agrees. "It is rather strange to be thinking of Ariel Sharon as a centrist, but the man is an incredibly astute politician. I'm saying right now that he's going to come through this crisis as Prime Minister, again"


    Head Heeb Jonathan Edelstein, a lawyer in New York, predicts increasing party clarity as various political interests shuffle themselves out. "Instead of being several parties in one, the Likud will once again be the party of the nationalist right. The next election will see a fairly clear choice between three parties, each representing a different approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," he writes.


    Read more about Ariel Sharon and more about the Likud Party.


    Arianna vs. Wal-Mart: Hoping to direct readers' attention to the muckraking Wal-Mart movie, The High Cost of Low Price, blogmonger Arianna Huffington has assembled a remarkable coalition of the willing to denounce the corporate giant at Huffington Post.


    "Wal-Mart sells itself as the all-American company, but it violates American family values every single day," blogs iconic Sen. Ted Kennedy. Renaissance-man RJ Eskow seconds the charge of corporate hypocrisy. "A population deprived of once-promised opportunities - for income, job security, and benefits - can only afford the least expensive items to make ends meet," he writes. "Wal-Mart lowers your living standards, then sells you the cheap goods that are all you can afford." Byron York of the National Review points out some of the movie's inaccuracies.


    Read more about The High Cost of Low Price, more Huffington Post commentary, and more blog posts about the Huffington Post commentary.


    Got a question, comment, or suggestion? E-mail todaysblogs@slate.com.

    David Wallace-Wells is a writer living in New York.



     







    Today's Papers


    The China Monologues
    By Jay Dixit
    Updated Monday, Nov. 21, 2005, at 6:56 AM ET


    The New York Times' and Los Angeles Times' leads, the Washington Post's top nonlocal story, and the Wall Street Journal's top world-wide news item all report on President Bush's talks with the president of China, noting that the Chinese government was mostly unresponsive to Bush's appeals for economic and political reforms. USA Today leads with the CIA chief's denial that his agency uses torture.


    Bush's trip to China "meets low expectations," snarks the WP headline, although everyone agrees that officials had specifically warned that progress would be slow. The NYT headline emphasizes China's promise to quicken the pace of economic reforms but goes on to talk about China's "quiet resistance" to Bush's requests, quoting an American official who says, "No Chinese leader was going to act immediately under the pressure" from a foreign leader. The WSJ is more skeptical from the outset, focusing on China's unresponsiveness with the headline "Beijing Brushes Off Bush's Plea" and noting that the Chinese president said China would address U.S. concerns "as it saw fit." The WP article emphasizes that the Bush administration had predicted no breakthroughs but is promising that this trip will lay the groundwork for future progress. The LAT article emphasizes questions about how forcefully Bush pushed the "freedom agenda," noting that although administration officials may have had low expectations, human rights advocates had high ones.


    Among other things, Bush wants China to crack down on movie and video game piracy and allow the market to set its foreign exchange rate. The Chinese president indicated he was aware of Bush's concerns but said he would tackle them on his own timetable. Bush told reporters that the talks were "good" and "frank" but euphemistically added that America's relationship with China is "complex." China had not released any of the people the U.S. said were unjustly imprisoned and in fact apparently rounded up new political and religious dissidents before Bush arrived specifically so they wouldn't demonstrate during his visit. Bush also attended a Protestant church service near Tiananmen Square and urged Chinese leaders not to "fear Christians who gather to worship openly."


    The CIA uses "unique and innovative" methods to extract information but does not torture, said Porter Goss, the agency's director. Goss said that officially, the CIA is neutral on John McCain's proposal to ban the use of "cruel, inhuman or degrading" treatment but that such methods have been valuable in the past. He said such methods are legal and do not include torture. McCain's proposal would restrict psychological techniques that some Republican representatives believe are necessary, such as isolating a detainee or calling him a coward. The White House has threatened to veto any bill including McCain's measure.


    A related NYT front reports on the three Republican senators (including McCain) who are "making trouble for the Bush administration" by supporting the proposal.


    The WP reports that money set aside so far for Hurricane Katrina relief is only "a drop in the bucket" compared with what the final tally will be. The money spent so far on removing debris, housing evacuees, and financially assisting victims already equals the money spent on Iraqi reconstruction. But the bulk of the Katrina cost will come when the government rebuilds infrastructure, including "roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, sewers, power lines, ports and levees." Estimates of the total price tag vary wildly, but everyone agrees it will be well over $100 billion.


    In related news, USAT reports on post-Katrina donor fatigue, noting that people are feeling tapped out after having donated to Katrina relief. Food banks say they are seeing bare shelves as a "direct result of Katrina." Food donations are down 30 percent in New York and 50 percent in Milwaukee and Denver.


    The NYT and LAT front the news that Israeli PM Ariel Sharon will leave the Likud Party to found a new centrist party with which to seek re-election. The NYT's sources are Israeli army radio and a senior Likud member, while the LAT gets a Sharon spokesman. The Israeli president will most likely dissolve the parliament and call for a new election within 90 days. Sharon has been battling dissenters within his own party who opposed his decision to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. But he has received "significant support" from President Bush, and early polls predict that Sharon's new party might win more seats than a Sharon-less Likud would.


    Goats story … The LAT reports on the rising popularity of goat, "the other red meat." Demand for goat meat in the U.S. is growing, largely due to the millions of Americans who were born in "goat-eating nations." Even Whole Foods sells it, banking on Muslims, Latinos, and Asians, and on consumers who want to try "new and interesting meat choices."

    Jay Dixit is a writer in New York. He has written for the New York Times and Rolling Stone


     







    Newspapers, Google, Bob Woodward




     


    Woodward? Google? A Plague Week




    LAST week's string of dismal headlines about the newspaper business eventually began to resemble a multivehicle pileup on the freeway. There was so much carnage it was difficult for even the most determined rubbernecker to know where to look.


    On Wednesday, Bob Woodward, the man who built his career on protecting a single Watergate source, became impaled by his efforts to protect another. Who would have thought that one of the journalists responsible for the ubiquitous "gate" suffix denoting scandal would end up with it being attached to his name?


    On the same day, Walter Pincus, one of Mr. Woodward's colleagues at The Washington Post, found himself held in contempt of court for his refusal to identify his sources in a lawsuit brought by Wen Ho Lee, a scientist who formerly worked at a government nuclear weapons lab.


    And while other reporters may not face jail time or fines, their future seemed grim as well. The Los Angeles Times announced cuts of 85 newsroom employees, while The Chicago Tribune said it was cutting 100 jobs across all departments. Earlier in the week, Knight Ridder got shoved onto the auction block by investors who had tired of the company's dawdling share value.


    And the worst of it? Those were not the worst of it.


    The scariest development for the newspaper industry was the announcement (on that same Wednesday) that Google, the search engine company that wants to be the wallpaper of the future, was going live with Google Base, a user-generated database in which people can upload any old thing they feel like. Could be a poem about their cat, or their aunt's recipe for cod fritters with corn relish.


    Or, more ominously for the newspaper industry, people could start uploading advertisements to sell their '97 Toyota Corolla. Craigslist kicked off the trend, giving readers a free alternative to the local classified section. If Google Base accelerates the process, the journalism-school debates over anonymous sourcing and declining audience may end up seeming quaint.


    Google Base reverses the polarity on the company's consumer model. Instead of simply sending automated crawlers out across the Web in search of relevant answers to search queries, Google has invited its huge constituency of users to send and tag information that will be organized and displayed in relevant categories, all of which sounds like a large toe into the water of the classified advertising business, estimated to be worth about $100 billion a year.


    This could be a fine thing for consumers, but for newspapers, which owe about a third of their revenues to classified advertising, it could be more a spike to the heart than just another nail in the coffin.


    LARGE national newspapers like USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times have already absorbed a big hit as advertising categories like travel and automobiles have moved online. According to estimates cited by The Associated Press, newspaper advertising revenues will grow less than 3 percent in the current year while online revenue, much of it coming from search advertising, will jump by more than 25 percent.


    Google Base could take a bigger toll on local and regional newspapers. So far, those papers have managed to maintain their connection between their readers and the goods and services in the same market. By allowing its audience to customize content and post it for free (all the while selling ads against the audience that information aggregates), Google could all but wipe out the middle man, which could be your friendly neighborhood daily paper.


    "Many newspapers have had historic monopolies in their respective markets when it comes to classified ads," said Christa Quarles, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners, a merchant bank in San Francisco. "The local papers have been fairly insulated from major attack, and this could be the next big shoe to drop."


    The growing competition will certainly be evident if and when Knight Ridder, with its host of regional and local newspapers, goes up for sale. Historically, newspapers are valued at 10 to 12 times earnings, which theoretically would make the company worth as much as $9 billion dollars. Given Knight Ridder's current market capitalization of $4.18 billion, Bruce S. Sherman, who heads Private Capital Management and who owns 19 percent of the company, thinks it might be time to sell.


    But how liquid are newspapers? Even though they deliver profit margins of more than 20 percent on an industrywide average, they are viewed as bad bets for the future and may not bring the dear premium they have in the past.


    Across the board, newspaper stocks are down approximately 20 percent, in part because the industry, accustomed to cyclical change in its 400-year history, is now confronted by secular change: audiences are moving online and taking advertising dollars with them. And they aren't coming back.


    Happily, newspapers have been there to great them with Web sites of their own, but owning consumers online is not quite the same as dropping a product they pay for on their doorstep. Those eyeballs are worth less, at least so far, and will not support big local news staffs, let alone far-flung bureaus.


    John Morton, an analyst who has been watching the newspaper industry since 1971, had a hard time remembering a worse period for the business.


    "It was a very discouraging week by any measure in a year that has been discouraging as well," he said. He pointed out that the week before, the Audit Bureau of Circulations announced that the combined circulation for newspapers dropped 2.6 percent in the six months ending in September. If that trend continues, dailies could lose as many as 2.5 million subscribers next year.


    A reader outside the newspaper business might be tempted to say, so what? New technologies are, by their nature, disruptive and the benefits generally accrue to consumers. Who can complain about reaching millions - or perhaps the one person you really need, a buyer - through placing a free ad?


    But if you consider newspapers to be a social and civic good, then some things are at risk. Google gives consumers e-mail, maps and, in some locations, wireless service for free. But for Google's news aggregator to function, somebody has to do the reporting, to make the calls, to ensure that what we call news is more than a press release hung on the Web.


    News robots can't meet with a secret source in an underground garage or pull back the blankets on a third-rate burglary to reveal a conspiracy at the highest reaches of government. Tactical and ethical blunders aside, actual journalists come in handy on occasion.


    "Up to this point, the deck chairs have been rearranged," said Jane E. Kirtley, a professor of journalism at the University of Minnesota. "But the technology companies have been hustling and innovating in search of ad revenues. And all of the cutbacks in newspapers are bound to have an impact on the free flow of information."










  • Today's Papers


    Beaned By a Curveball
    By Jesse Stanchak
    Posted Sunday, Nov. 20, 2005, at 6:08 AM ET


    The Los Angeles Times breaks the news that German intelligence officials are claiming the FBI and CIA misrepresented pre-war intelligence provided by "an Iraqi defector code-named Curveball," regarding Iraqi WMD programs. The New York Times leads with an assessment of President Bush's visit to China, concluding there's precious little he can do to exert pressure on the Chinese government, despite increasing urgent concerns over trade and human rights. The Washington Post leads with discrepancies between the number of crimes committed on the city's subway system as reported by system administrators and those figures released by local police.


    German intelligence officials who handled the ironically codenamed "Curveball," claim that the CIA and FBI knew that Curveball's statements about Iraqi biological weapons programs were vague and impossible to verify, the LAT reports. The German officials, who handled Curveball over a period of six years, warned the U.S. agencies that Curveball was emotionally and psychologically unstable. Nevertheless, Curveball's unsubstantiated claims about Iraqi biological weapons programs formed the backbone of the Bush administration's case for war. The LAT story tells the story of an Iraqi who'd say anything to get a German visa and the intelligence community that ate it all up with a spoon.


    The NYT is bearish on Bush's visit to China. Chinese President Hu declined to hold a joint press conference with Bush and the state-run media refused to cover much of Bush's visit. The NYT reports the administration has said it's not expecting to bring home any diplomatic trophies, which is good because the Chinese government isn't about to make concessions on monetary policy, releasing dissidents or any number of other issues. If there's a silver lining here, the NYT argues it's that the two leaders are seeing eye to eye more often than they used to: The two nations agree in principle about North Korean nukes and the Chinese have taken the yuan off its hard peg to the U.S. dollar, even if they won't allow it to float freely on the open market.


    The WP reports that when the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority says that there have been 10 muggings at a given metro stop in the last year, they really mean WMATA's own Transit Police have reported 10 muggings, ignoring any reports coming from D.C., Maryland, or Virginia police. The discrepancies can throw crime figures for individual stops off by as much as 60 percent, the WP finds. Officials up and down the line feign ignorance of the practice, with one going so far as to call the cooked statistics a misleading "kubuki dance," an unsavory Washington metaphor of the worst sort.


    The NYT and WP each front (while the LAT runs inside with) analysis of what Friday's shouting match over the ongoing Iraq occupation means for both parties. The WP characterizes it as a long-avoided issue that has bubbled to the top of the national consciousness and which the GOP-led Congress will have to cope with if it wants to get anything else done. The NYT looks at how the issue has fractured the GOP's previously lockstep party mechanism, leaving it unable to move forward on any issue. Meanwhile the LAT reminds Democrats that it's not enough for the other guys to screw up: They'll need to come up with alternatives of their own if they want to make any political gains stick.


    The NYT reports that in Jackson, Miss., the wind might not have blow that hard, but residents were only too happy to reap the windfall of Hurricane Katrina relief money. Residents who experienced sub-hurricane force winds and whose only loss during the storm was spoiled food from refrigerators that lost power still qualified for hundreds, even thousands of dollars in relief funds from FEMA and the Red Cross. The NYT reports that much of the money was spent on firearms, electronics, and other luxury items.


    The LAT off-leads with a feature on the controversy over oil-shale development in Western Colorado. The procedure for pressing oil out of undeveloped shale is being touted by the White House as the answer to America's energy crisis; however, some experts think the extracting process could use up more energy than it produces. If the most bullish analysts turn out to be right, though, the region could produce more barrels of oil than the remaining reserves of Saudi Arabia, but, the LAT points out, that could be a mighty big "if."


    The WP off-leads with a reminder that for all the negative attention the Iraq occupation receives, Afghanistan isn't doing too hot, either. As the deadline for finishing a massive clinic- and school-building initiative draws to a close, contractors have built far fewer structures than they'd been ordered to complete and those that have been finished show signs of shoddy workmanship. The WP does a good job of breaking down the various factors impeding the building effort, stressing that a combination of security concerns, logical problems, corruption, and exaggerated expectations have combined to prevent the project from being completed. The story points out, however, that no amount of explanation will buy any goodwill from exasperated Afghanis who have been waiting for years for the schools and medical facilities they were promised.


    A recently passed bill disguised as a routine modification of mining regulations would actually allow private developers to snatch up huge tracts of federal land, reports the NYT under the fold.


    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is kicking about 200 U.S. missionaries out of the country, reports the LAT, on suspicions that they're committing acts of espionage and "imperialist penetration."


    Nothing Says "Mazel Tov" Quite Like Ja Rule …


    Instead of hiring Mordecai the Dancing Yiddish Clown, well-to-do parents are splurging on more opulent entertainment for their kids' bar mitzvahs or birthday parties, hiring top-tier performers like Beyonce or Christina Aguilera, reports the NYT. Even more venerable acts like the Rolling Stones and Elton John will play a wedding reception if the price is right—and the guests promise not to tell anyone.

    Jesse Stanchak is an assistant documents editor at Congressional Quarterly.

  • http://twolostmoons.com/


    DARE TO DREAM - 17th November, 2005  http://twolostmoons.com/

    Blessings, dearest ones, I AM Sadiyaa; I AM also Tikele, in this moment in time, as we converse with you, so beautifully, so Joyously, in our Love for You, the brave ones who are finding it somewhat difficult, as the energy for change continues to intensify within you.  

    Allow the energy of Love to flow through you in this Now moment, as you close your eyes, and simply place yourself into the flow of the Love that surrounds You at all times.  Can you find within You, the awareness that Who You ARE is easily able to do this?  For You ARE the Being of Light, trying so hard to organise the physical journey into a form that pleases you, or that simply allows you to not be solving one problem after another.  

    It is not about trying, dear ones; it is not about struggle; it is, instead, surrender, to the Joyousness that naturally resides within you.  And how do you do that?  You allow yourself the time, to be still, to rest, unashamedly, doing what you would consider to be nothing. What is it that happens during this time, that you consider so wasted, in your busy lives?   It gives your biology a chance to rest, to restore itself to a level that is more beneficial to your well-being.  It gives your mind a chance to catalogue all of the things that are worrying you, so that you might decide, what to do about them - be it to find a solution in some fashion, or to hand them over to us to resolve with you.  When you choose to do either of these things, you are allowing the energy to flow once more - it is no longer stuck in the moment of intensity that builds up and is ultimately, stored in your body as blocks and toxicity, that can become the basis for disease, if you do not find ways to release them from within, by changing the focus of your thoughts.  

    Disease, no matter what its nature, has consciousness.  It is an energy that insists that you pay attention, right now, to what is going on in your body, and ultimately, your life.  For that reason, it is given much energy of a fearful nature, which amplifies the original toxicity to a new level of existence.  

    However, what is not well understood, is that it IS only a part of the whole, that has gone down this path of manifestation.  There is so much more of you, of your consciousness, that remains in a "healthy" state.  This other, major part of your consciousness, can be brought into a strong alignment towards well being, as you choose to have it be so.  It is easy to have the part that is shouting loudly, yet is really, the minority, receive all the attention. Can you not instead, focus on all the parts that are doing so very well - the overall consciousness of the cells, the energy of the chakras that are still performing so beautifully, and the many many systems of the body that retain their full health and vigour?  It is far more beneficial to you, no matter what the level of disease, to place the loud voice that is so fearful, outside the door of your consciousness, and bring yourself into a beautiful place of Peace and Love for You - for being willing to work on this journey you have designed for yourself, with such Love.

    Now, this will create anger in those who do not understand the nature of life on the Earth plane, who persist in perceiving it as a finite, third dimensional reality, where actions create, and thoughts are just there, to provide ideas and ways of doing things.  

    Your thoughts DO create your reality.  You are limitless Beings, who have been held in an energy of limitation for a very long time, and now, those who are willing, are able to move themselves out of the half asleep mode of functioning, into a wonderfully enriching, Joyous place, where all is abundant, in whatever way is desired.

    We know that at times, it sounds like a fairy tale, that is like always aiming for that Holy Grail, and never quite reaching it.  Yet, those of you who dare to dream in this way, to continue to release whatever is constraining you in any way, from the past - allowing yourself to move into a space where you find yourself in your Truth, in total integrity in all parts of your life; knowing, that you do not walk the path alone, for there is ALWAYS many a helping hand that reaches out to be of service, that you often do not see, both physical and non-physical.  

    Sometimes, when you cannot see a single helping hand around you, ask yourself, who is it, that I could call on, in my mind, for assistance, whose energy would be exactly what I need right now.  The answer will always come to you, in that moment, for your Higher Self has been waiting for just such a request.  A thought will find its way into your mind, and it is for you, in that moment, to allow yourself, in your mind, to hold a conversation with that one, speaking from your heart, about your needs.  If it is not appropriate for that one to assist you, another will be found, who can do so.  It is for you, in that moment of reaching out, to allow yourself to be held in the energy of Love, that is there for you - to allow yourself to receive, the energy of Love for Who You ARE.

    You see, not a one of you is doing the journey solo:  each and every one of you, is busily gathering up and organising, those whom you have previously arranged to assist you through your challenges, just as you, in turn, have agreed to help certain others at this time.  Each time someone chooses to experience a deep issue that has been held within, to heal it from your system, there has always been a support system, waiting to move into assisting you in that journey.  At times, it is true, that certain ones are not willing to take on this role in your 3D life, but this is rare indeed.  Most often, you already have expectations about who you would call on, and these ones may not have this as part of their journey, so you perceive there to be closed doors all about you.

    Remember, the power of your mind, of your awareness, to reach into the energy of others around you, to ask for whatever is needed.  The need must come from your heart - it is not to be misused, and always must it be requested in the form of having that which is of service to the whole, for the highest good of all, be made apparent to you, NOW.  As you choose to sit in stillness, allowing yourself to be bathed in the energy of Love, or to receive this healing energy from those who are able to facilitate this for you, you can more easily open your awareness to ask, "Who is it, that would be of service to me, for the highest good of all, to co-create (this situation) in my life, now?"  And allow your awareness to simply receive, allowing your physical to be as deeply relaxed as it is possible to be, and focusing on your heart, your emotions, rather than the mind, that seeks constantly to find answers in ways that are often based in the old energy of limitation and lack.  It is useful to place yourself into a meditative state, that you might be more aware of new thoughts that come to you in response to your request for assistance.        

    What we speak of, is to converse with your Higher Self energy to request assistance in this process, and to understand, that you can converse at any time with the energy of any Being whatsoever, be they on your or our side of the veil.  All that it takes, is the willingness to accept that you can do this, easily.  Some, who are already in a place of understanding the interconnectedness of all things, will find it in their awareness, that they have been asked for assistance in this way.  Most often at this time, the one who answers, will not be fully, or even consciously, aware of their role in your journey in that moment.  It matters not - what matters, is that you have had the courage to ask for help, from your heart, and this is never unanswered.  

    We ask you to hold the energy of Trust, as strongly as you might, that you have called on whoever it was that came forth, for assistance, and perhaps also, other Beings, the Creator Light, perhaps Gaia, and more.... and that each of these energy patterns is then placed immediately into a place of defining, what it is that they could co-create with you, to respond to your request.  Oftentimes, you sink back into the morass of despair, and this adds to the difficulty you have in receiving.  

    It is for you to choose, to dare to dream, that help is at hand, no matter the level of difficulty you are in - all is a moment of time, in transition, and can be responded to in a multitude of ways.  It is so much easier to perceive these possibilities, if you are able to connect your awareness to the Love of Gaia/Mother Earth, the Infinite Love of the Creator, who allows you the opportunity to experience in any way you are choosing to, and the many many Beings of Light, both seen and unseen, that are always, all around you, to support you in your Earth journey and beyond.   

    So once more, we ask you to spend time in idleness, in daydreaming, in creativity in your mind, playing with possibilities; to allow yourself to hold imaginary conversations with those who come into your awareness, holding yourself in your own Truth as you do so, for the highest good of all.  Allow yourself to experiment and play, with whatever thoughts come to you, leaving your judgements outside the door of your awareness, in that moment.

    You may also choose to place yourself in a space of receiving the energy of Love - to permeate and fill each and every cell of your physical body with the energy of Love, Peace, and Joyousness, expanding into your emotional and mental bodies as well, and moving into the spiritual, where Love resides more easily.  By doing this, you are aligning your four-body system with the vibration of Love itself.  This will assist you in holding the frequency that is most beneficial to you, your journey, and the many that you are connected to, co-creating the New Earth all around you.

    As we say to you so often, BE at Peace, GO in Love, and ENJOY your wonderful life here on the Earth plane, for it is truly a tremendous gift, and most especially so, when it seems to you, to be the most difficult, for in that moment, you are Loved so completely, you have the power to create whatever you would create in your life, to take you to the next level of your journey.  

    The energy of the old is gone in that moment; the new is calling to you strongly, and it is time to hear that call, and to begin to work with the energy of the cells, the awareness of your interconnectedness to one another, and to those of us in other realms of thought focus - all of us, connecting our energy to co-create the most glorious, beautiful of visions, for a Peaceful, Loving, Harmonious and Joyous New Earth, as you focus on these energies within Who You ARE.

    Blessings always, as we hold YOU, in the Love of the Creator Light, the Goddess Love, and the Christ Consciousness.

    And so it is.  

     






















































































































































































































































































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  • The Great Global Buyout Bubble






    The Great Global Buyout Bubble




    A YEAR ago this week, Henry R. Kravis, the legendary buyout mogul who invented the modern-day private equity industry, gave a rare speech to a group of investors in a ballroom of the Waldorf-Astoria. In describing how far the business had come, Mr. Kravis, a slight man with a dry wit, recounted how difficult it had been for him to raise $355 million to buy one of his first companies, Houdaille Industries, in 1979.


    "The availability of financing was our biggest challenge," he said. "Literally, we had to add up the potential capital sources at that time, which consisted of several banks and insurance companies, and one by one go out and raise the money."


    Today, he has the opposite problem. Investors have been throwing money at the red-hot leveraged-buyout industry - so much so that Mr. Kravis now has to turn away some of them, rejecting their cash as a mere "commodity."


    Private equity firms, it seems, now own everything: Hertz, Neiman Marcus, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Toys "R" Us and Warner Music, to name a few. So far this year, buyout firms have spent more than $130 billion gobbling up parts of corporate America. And with more than another $100 billion in unspent money this year still swirling around the industry, there is a lot more buying to be done. The boom isn't limited to America: in Britain buyout firms own so many companies that they now employ 18 percent of the private sector, according to the British Venture Capital Association.


    The trillion-dollar question is whether these shopaholics are setting themselves up for a giant fall. If the market begins to show even the faintest signs of strain, this bubble may pop, say many financial analysts as well as private equity players themselves. If that happens, the leveraged-buyout boom and bust that Michael Milken led in the 1980's could end up looking like a dress rehearsal for the mess to come. As Mr. Kravis said during his speech: "Unfortunately, there is a flip side to having access to plentiful capital. It means that too many people without experience in building businesses have too much money."


    The numbers tell the story. Over the last three years, private equity firms have had record returns through a series of quick flips, spurred in part by superlow interest rates that allowed them to borrow huge sums of money. As a result, big institutional investors like pension funds have poured $491 billion into the business, according to Thomson Venture Economics, a firm that tracks data for the industry. If you figure that the firms can borrow three to five times that amount - a conservative assumption - the industry has more than $2 trillion in purchasing power.


    But here's the rub: In the next three years, to reap returns on all those big-name investments they have been making, private equity firms are going to have to sell $500 billion worth of assets. The question is, to whom? Even in the last three years, in as big a bull market as they come, private equity has never sold more than $153.2 billion in a year, according to Freeman & Company. At the same time, the investment firms will have to keep spending. And the low-hanging fruit has already been taken.


    "There's no question this is going to end badly for some," said Colin C. Blaydon, a professor at the Tuck School of Management at Dartmouth and the dean emeritus of its Center for Private Equity and Entrepreneurship. "It's almost a classic boom-bust cycle. When you see a big boom, people see the returns, go rushing in, stuff more money in than can be dealt with. Suddenly, something will happen that makes people say: 'Oh, my God! Look at the leverage we've got on these things. Isn't this way too risky? Shouldn't we pull back?' And then the question becomes: Does it crash like a rock or is there an adjustment down over time?"


    ALREADY, there are reminders that the business can turn ugly overnight. Thomas H. Lee Partners, the Boston private equity firm famed for buying Snapple for $135 million in 1992 and selling it two years later to Quaker Oats for $1.7 billion, recently was badly burned on its investment in Refco, the commodities trader that filed for bankruptcy protection last month. While the setback has hardly sunk the Lee firm, it is an illustration of how risky these investments can be.


    Firms may have a particularly tough time exiting some of their investments because investors are taking a more skeptical view of initial public offerings backed by private equity. In recent months, several high-profile quick flips have left critics wondering whether buyout firms were using such offerings simply to line their pockets, rather than using the proceeds to support companies.


    Earlier this year, the Blackstone Group sold a German chemicals company, the Celanese Corporation, to the public after owning it for less than 12 months. The firm quadrupled its money and all of the proceeds from the offering were used to pay out a special dividend to Blackstone. Mr. Kravis's firm, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company, also quadrupled its money by flipping PanAmSat, the satellite company it owned for less than a year.


    Investor scrutiny of private equity-backed I.P.O.'s forced Warner Music, which is owned by a consortium of buyout firms led by Thomas H. Lee Partners, to scale back its offering significantly: the firms made several last-minute adjustments that kept them from cashing out as much as they had hoped, in part as a way to inspire confidence in the offering.


    According to Dealogic, which tracks the industry, initial public offerings backed by private equity firms have performed worse than other offerings; the average first-day return for a private-equity-backed I.P.O. this year is 8.3 percent, compared with 13.9 percent for other offerings. Analysts ascribe some of that discrepancy to concern by investors that private equity firms will later cash out of their position, depressing the stock price. Over time, though, that gap often narrows and some private equity offerings have outperformed other offerings.


    Then there is the issue of sky-high prices that some private equity firms have been willing to pay for acquisitions. According to Standard & Poor's, buyout firms now pay, on average, about eight times a company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - or Ebitda, a common measure of cash flow - for companies worth more than $1 billion. That is a significant increase from a multiple of about 6.5 only several years ago. Private equity firms have felt comfortable paying more because debt remains so cheap and banks have been willing to allow the firms to add ever-larger amounts of leverage to transactions.


    But if the debt market turns against them - and it is bound to do so at some point - potential buyers or public investors may not be willing to pay the same prices. In the consumer retail sector, where private equity firms have paid prices of more than 12 times Ebitda during frenzied auctions, selling may be especially tough. Tommy Hilfiger and Dunkin' Brands are both for sale, and some bidders have already left the auction, a sign that the price may be moving too high.


    "I'm pessimistic about the economy, interest rates, credit markets, and all that," said Hamilton E. James, president of the Blackstone Group. "I feel people are paying prices that are too full. I think some mistakes will be made. We've pulled in our horns a little. We've become more conservative about the types of companies we buy, the prices we pay, the exit multiple assumptions and so on and so forth."


    Of course, many people in the industry disagree with the premise that there is a bubble ready to pop. They note that private equity is still only a small part of the mergers-and-acquisitions and I.P.O. market, and they say that if they've done their homework, they will have made the right bet.


    Even Mr. James, the economic bear, is still bullish on the overall leveraged-buyout market. "I have no concern about the markets being big enough to accommodate L.B.O. sponsors getting liquidity for their successful, good-quality portfolio companies," he said. "The very growth of private equity, don't forget, adds a whole other option: the secondary buyout," referring to a trend in which private equity firms buy and sell businesses to one another.


    YOU can't argue with that. But not everyone can make a brilliant bet, and headwinds can make things more difficult.


    The advent of supersized deals also lurks below the surface. For years, buyout firms focused on businesses worth several billions of dollars at most. Today, flush with cash and under pressure to spend it, private equity firms are splurging on huge businesses like Hertz ($15 billion) or SunGard ($11.3 billion). The Computer Sciences Corporation is being eyed for a $12 billion takeover. But selling those businesses or putting them back in the public markets could be even more difficult because of their size.


    How will this shake out? Will the bubble pop? For some, absolutely. There will be bankruptcies, restructurings and fire sales. Others, who made the right bets, may be luckier and be able to ride out the bad years.


    "In hot markets, you can sell crummy companies," Mr. James said. "In less ebullient markets, the really marginal companies take more than their disproportionate share of the pain. That's where you'll see it."


    DealBook also covers the news of deals daily by e-mail. A free subscription is available at nytimes.com/dealbook.





  • Are men necessary? Maureen Dowd




     


    'Are Men Necessary?': See the Girl With the Red Dress On




    LET'S, for a moment, judge a book by its cover. One need not read Maureen Dowd's "Are Men Necessary?" to answer the question. The retro pulp-fiction jacket features a bombshell in a clingy red dress strap-hanging under the leering gaze of her fellow subway riders, all male. For the use of this illustration, Dowd enthusiastically thanks the artist, Owen Smith, adding, "The girl in the red dress will always be my red badge of courage." Below such an image, the subtitle, "When Sexes Collide," seems both wish and prediction.


    Crack open "Are Men Necessary?" and the author's first words are flirtatious: "For men. Friends and more, past, present and future. You know who you are." Those of us left out of the innuendo can assume that, beyond her dedicatees, men make up a hefty portion of her readership. Dowd, whose dead-clever aim and feisty delight in skewering politicians juiced up her reporting from The New York Times's Washington bureau, has produced a twice-weekly column for The Times's Op-Ed page for the last 10 years. Having published those pertaining to G. W. and company as "Bushworld: Enter at Your Own Risk," she has now collected and expanded on her opinions about a topic that would appear to interest her at least as much as presidential shenanigans: the never-to-be-resolved sexual contest between men and women.


    The title, "Are Men Necessary?," refers nominally to scientific speculation that the Y chromosome, which has been shedding genes over evolutionary time, may disappear entirely within the next ten million years, a hypothesis countered by newer studies showing that the Y of the human species has been stable for the past six million years. Neither development, of course, has any bearing on the coupling opportunities for humankind as we know it. But it is exactly this kind of "news" that offers Dowd a provocative snag, tweaked to advantage in her columns. Her Cuisinart style of info processing and her embrace of popular culture invite all manner of unexpected applications, allowing, for example, a "Seinfeld" character to help us understand the relative simplicity of males, whose sex is determined by only one Y, as opposed to the female's two X's. "Maybe that 'Seinfeld' episode is right," she muses, "where George Costanza tries to prove that man's passions can all be fulfilled at the same time if he can watch a hand-held TV while 'pleasuring' a woman while eating a pastrami on rye with spicy mustard."


    Beyond science, "Are Men Necessary?" addresses the confusion of postfeminist dating, gender conflicts in the workplace, the media's disparate treatment of men and women, American culture's saturation with sexual imagery, our collective obsession with youth and appearances, the objectification of women by men and, finally, sex as "a tripwire in American history." For Dowd, who won a Pulitzer Prize in 1999 for her commentary on Monica-gate and who has covered the fate of women politicians from Geraldine Ferraro to Hillary Clinton, this last topic has been more high wire than tripwire - one on which she's cartwheeled through many a career, fashioning herself an attention-grabbing costume of sparkling jabs.


    But what makes Dowd an exceptionally good columnist on the Op-Ed page - her ability to compress and juxtapose, her incisiveness, her ear for hypocrisy and eye for the absurd - does not enable her to produce a book-length exploration of a topic as complex as the relations between the sexes. Consumed over a cup of coffee, 800 words provide Dowd the ideal length to call her readers' attention to the ephemera at hand that may reveal larger trends and developments. But smart remarks are reductive and anti-ruminative; not only do they not encourage deeper analysis, they stymie it.


    Producing one of her trademark staccato repetitions - for example, on cosmetic surgery: "We no longer have natural selection. We have unnatural selection. Survival of the fittest has been replaced by survival of the fakest. Biology used to be destiny. Now biology's a masquerade party" - Dowd effectively dismisses a subject by virtue of proclamation. Does she let loose three arrows instead of one because she can't choose the cleverest among them? Typically, her formula is to articulate a thesis, punch it up with humor and then follow with anecdotal support or examples taken from TV shows, advertisements, overheard conversations - all cultural detritus is fair game. Often she quotes from reputable sources, CNN or The Times or a professional journal like Science; more often she applies witty asides, snippy comparisons ("Arabs put their women in veils. We put ours in the stocks") and tabloid-style alliteration (e.g., "dazzling dames" and "He mused that men are in a muddle").


    When a few hundred pages' worth of these observations are published in one book, they suffer the opposite of synergy, adding up to less than the sum of their parts. Energizing in small morning doses, the author's fast-talking spins on the spin can rear-end one another until the pileup exhausts a reader's patience. Polemics tend to ignore subtleties and contradictions, so one may be reluctant to grant Dowd the authority of a responsible guide to a territory as fraught as sexual politics. Her habit of deploying her mother as a narrative device - in the attempt to give credence to the idea that she has affection and respect for someone, if not for the people she's undercutting in adjacent sentences? - is reminiscent of Lieutenant Columbo's invoking his wife with the ulterior purpose of distracting and confusing the murderer he's trying to catch. When Dowd claims she's "shy and oversensitive," amid numerous references to her hobnobbing with the powers that be, both political and cultural, it seems manipulative.


    LIKE most people who work hard at seeming to be naturally funny, Maureen Dowd comes across as someone who very much wants to be liked, even though she has problematically joined forces with those women who are "sabotaging their chances in the bedroom" by having high-powered careers. "A friend of mine called nearly in tears the day she won a Pulitzer," Dowd reports in a passage about men threatened by successful women. " 'Now,' she moaned, 'I'll never get a date!' " Reading this, I can't help wondering if Dowd is that self-same "friend." After all, it's rare that she resists naming her friends, most of whom have names worth dropping: "my witty friend Frank Bruni, the New York Times restaurant critic"; "my friend Leon Wieseltier"; "the current Cosmo editor, my friend Kate White"; "my late friend Art Cooper, the editor of GQ for 20 years"; "my pal Craig Bierko"; et al.


    Dowd's gift for memorably buoyant attacks ensures that she's quoted not only en route to work and around the water cooler but well into the dinner hour; they tend to bob to the mind's surface through the daily tide of minutiae, providing ready conversational flotsam. But for a woman who says, quoting Carole Lombard, "I never forget that a woman's first job is to choose the right shade of lipstick," an award-winning acid tongue just may be a tragic flaw.


    Kathryn Harrison is the author of the memoir "The Kiss" and, most recently, "Envy," a novel.